Saratoga - Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes

7/30/2010 8:49 PM

Track:

Saratoga Race Course

Race:

7/31/2010 - Race 10

Author:

mdracing69

Amount Bet:

$30.00

Amount Cashed:

$0.00

Saturday's 10th race (5:48PM ET) from Saratoga is the Grade 2 Jim Dandy for 3-year-olds traveling nine furlongs on the main track.

#2 Afleet Express (4-1) has earned triple digit numbers in his last two wins and passed his first two turn test in the G3 Pegasus at Monmouth June 19. He projects a nice inner tactical journey and will get the jump on his main rival Fly Down. Castellano/Jerkens have been on a roll together recently

I have always been fond of the aforementioned #9 Fly Down (3-1). The Zito trainee has fired in 5 of 6 outings with his lone off the board effort a troubled 9th in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He does some of his best work at this distance and could easily run past this crew. He uncorked a strong four furlong bullet for this on July 26.

The Plays: $18 to win #2, $6 Exacta Box 2-9 ($12) - analysis by Jarrod Horak

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Afleet Express enters this contest having run versus some of the weakest paces of race of this entire group and shows the complete fallacy of using a final time to evaluate the chances of a horse's running with others. Energy distribution wise, that one is anything BUT a pace horse with early/late balances way back there and since he ran against slow times, those late moves are better than reality. A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve should be closest to the pace but neither may hold on later. Fly Down's last introduced a new aspect of his running: the ability to close after setting a strong pace, and may be around for part of it underneath. Then there is Gomez on Steinbeck: uncharted waters akin to the recent Price of Wales winner...Have to consider that one as it is an unknown. IF Friend or Foe continues to improve, that one may very well be in the winner's circle today, A very WIDE OPEN race that will take the odds board to differentiate.

1 Replys

humphrey | 7/31/2010 10:24 AM | - Re: Saratoga - Grade 2 Jim D...