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Can the favorites be beaten?

3/9/2013 7:37 AM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$83.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

The San Felipe Stakes(1 1/16 miles; Grade II) brings in a field of eight taking a stab to make the Kentucky Derby field.  The winner will be awarded 50 points, which almost insures a trip to Louisville the first Saturday in May. 

Heading this strong group is Bob Baffert's #2 Flashback(8-5) who comes into this race with two wins, most recently the Robert B Lewis Stakes(Grade II) at today's distance.  The other is Doug O'Neill's #3 Goldencents(2-1), winner of 3-of-4, who  has rode in Graded stakes ever since breaking his maiden.  This colt comes into this with seven consecutive bullet works.  There doesn't seem to be anything to dissuade one from siding with this charge.  Nevertheless, with most of the betting action seeming to be going in these two colts direction, I will side #5 Hear The Ghost(6-1, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.  He's had two six-furlong races,and,though, he was defeated in him most recent effort, he made up four lengths in the stretch to just miss by 1 1/2 lengths.  The extra distance could be a plus for this Ghostzapper son.  Others to consider would be #6 Tiz A Minister(12-1) who made a monster move coming from 17 lengths back to prevail on a wet fast track. If the track were to come up fast today, this would mark his first attempt on a fast dirt track in his fourth outing.  Another to consider would be #7 Salutos Amigos(6-1, who  could provide the heat up front with Flashback, or, #8 Omega Star(6-1).

Since I look more often for the upset, the play will be:  #5 5-10-20 WPS, $3 Exacta box 2-3-5-7, and a $1 Trifecta key, 5/2-3-6-7/2-3-6-7.

This will be my feast-or-famine play.  Good luck. 

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Older Comments about Can the favorites be beaten?...

Thanks, brianalanvh. Just verifies my belief that, yes, a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.
nice score