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Stanwyck poised to strike on surface switch

12/30/2012 7:58 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$30.00
Amount Cashed:
$60.80

 

Monday's 8th race (4:05pm PT) from Santa Anita Park is an Optional Claiming event for fillies and mares traveling nine furlongs on the turf course (rail at 15 feet). 

#4 Stanwyck (9-2) has earned quality Late Pace/Final Time Ratings in her last three synthetic/dirt route starts. Empire Maker is a 10% first turf sire and dam has tossed two turf winners. Shirreffs does fine work with his first grass runners and Nakatani is a rock solid grass rider. She can run past these late on the surface switch in her 3rd race off the shelf.

Play Monday's Santa Anita Park games at DerbyWars.com 

#1 Level Headed (5-1) earned a much improved Late Pace Rating in her flat mile turf graduation run at Hollywood Nov 23. Gomez is is peak form right now and the 3yo daughter of Eddington has plenty of upside.

#8 Candy Trophy (5-1) has won 3 of 4 turf outings including back-to-back route tallies. The razor sharp tactical type was nabbed out of her last by competent, low profile conditioner Ted West and her regular pilot Martin Garcia booted home three here yesterday. 

#11 Mia Isabel (6-1) brings strong recent claiming synthetic/turf route form to the table. She attracts Bejarano and must work out a trip from a tough outer post.

#3 Splendiferous Moon (12-1) rates a longshot look for Sadler. She dons the hood and attracts quality turf rider Leparoux following an even 4th place finish vs. similar BHP rivals.

The Plays:

$12 to win #4 

$1 Trifecta 1-4-8/1-4-8/1-3-4-8-11 ($18)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

For daily insight on Santa Anita Park's Pick 6 races, please check out Pick 6blog.com for free selections and tickets.

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Older Comments about Stanwyck poised to strike on surface switch...

Thanks, cognibene. Stanwyck could end up being a decent sort on turf. He sure ran to his promising grass pedigree and strong late pace ratings today.
Let me be the first to congratulate you Jarrod. I liked the horse too and bet him. However, your pick killed the price. Nice pick anyway.
final contenders but no less confusing..10 Remarkable Moon 3 Splendiferous Moon 9 Demonsterous 14 Warren's Got Game
if Glwoing Spirit showed any evidence of doing his best twice, he would be a consideration here.
early in evaluation 9 10 and 14 have better late moves
statistically one NEVER uses the BEST to evaluate the regular. It is what happens against TODAY'S match up and how regularly said horse can match the best.
This race will depend on who scratches out. On paper, the #4 Stanwyck stands out if he runs back to his numbers of 5 Sept., Dmr. But that was on synthetic track and turf pedigree is not great for the grass. Will wait and see after scratches.
Stanwyck's one big late move came on Poly at Del Mar....Poly is not grass
CONFUSING before scratches but a note to this handicapper: You cannot evaluate a horse on late pace alone without understanding what platform the early pace puts the animal upon...that only works at 11 and 12 furlong grass contests. Many of these stand alone late runners, PARTICULARLY at Santa Anita are so far out of a contest by the second call that Silky Sullivan late moves would not be enough to get up. Add to the fact that Stanwyck has not shown much on the grass....They run COMPLETELY different once the surface changes with rare exceptions (those exceptions are of the Big Brown, Secretariat variety).