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  • Rachel's Valentina, daughter of champion Rachel Alexandra, wins her debut at the Spa!Posted 2 days ago
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  • Red Rifle squeezes through rivals to win the Bowling Green.Posted 3 days ago

Trying to beat My Miss Aurelia in the La Brea

12/26/2012 9:21 AM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$100.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

POST TIME: 4:34 EDT -- Going to anticipate that based on work out patterns leading up to opening day, that the Santa Anita dirt surface will pick up where it left off...lightening fast.  The G1 La Brea features a compact field of 7 with runner-up finisher in the Breeders' Cup Classic, #5 My Miss Aurelia, the clear headliner and a likely single on many Pick 5 tickets.  The fillies exiting the first three stalls will determine the pace of this race and #2 Nechez Dawn, is the only on in that bunch that has yet to run beyond 7 furlongs.  Of the remaining speed, I have landed on #1 Mamma Kimbo as my top candidate to upset this field.  Her races in the Spring took a lot out of her and her significant weight loss and "head down" demeanor were quite apparent.  Fast forward 7 months and you have a filly that looks as brilliant as she did when she broke her maiden here in an impressive debut victory back in February.  She has filled out, back on her toes and comes into this race off a very useful prep run 4 weeks ago on the Hollywood Cusion track which is not her preferred surface.  This one is game on tight, fast dirt surfaces and she'll get that condition today.  Mike Smith retains the mount and will own the controlling speed.  #3 Reneesgotzip will push Mamma Kimbo all the way, so she will not get away with easy fractions here.  The price should be right, however, and look for a near lifetime top today in a race she has been pointed to.  #5 My Miss Aurelia is only here to try and lock down an Eclipse Award.  Winning the La Brea will certainly move her up on many voter's lists.  She's working very well on the surface; is clearly the class of the field but she provides no value whatsoever and is not mortal lock here.  #7 Book Review will be heard from late and seems like a shoe in to hit the board.

The Wager:

$100 win #1

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