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Will she be Up In Time at Santa Anita?
1/1/2012 11:30 PM
Track:
Santa Anita Park
Race:
1/2/2012 - Race 8
Author:
mdracing69
Amount Bet:
$40.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00
Monday's 8th race (4:07pm PT) from Santa Anita Park is the Grade 3 Monrovia Stakes for fillies and mares dashing six and one-half furlongs on the turf course (rail at 8 feet).
#3 Up In Time
(8-1) clipped heels and dropped jockey Martin Garcia when last seen in the G1 Matriarch at Hollywood Park Nov 25. The 2-time turf sprint winner cuts back in distance
3rd off the shelf
and is a Graded winner over the local green. She beat today's rival
#1 Mizdirection
(9-2) in a flat mile Graded affair at Del Mar last summer.
{
Check out the top
Kentucky Derby 2012 contenders
}
#10 Unzip Me
(6-5) is 6-for-9 down the dip and won this event off a similar layoff last year. Bejarano has options from an outer post with the early-pressing type.
Mizdirection
has the necessary early-pressing versatility to work out a trip from the tricky inside post. She does some of her best work on the green and exits an easy Optional Claiming turf sprint score across town.
The Plays:
$16 to win #3
$8 Exacta Box 3-10 ($16)
$4 Exacta Box 1-3 ($8)
analysis by Jarrod Horak
For daily information on Santa Anita Park's Pick 6 races, please check out
Pick 6 blog
for free selections and tickets.
This race is a difficult one since not all horses handle both the downhill speed or the cross over of the main (turf, dirt, turf) and since the gravity aided fractions favor those having experience at this unique distance and set up, it makes comparisons to flat turf sprint runs very difficult. I make it a rule to be very very suspicious of a horse making it first start after a fall: they are often spooked for a long time afterwards before they regain the abilities and who knows how much carry over soreness the animal may retain: Case in point the 3 Up in Time's last Hollywood move "chased two wide, clipped heels lost rider" This horse tends to be a one run late sprinter as well with only a single line comparable to this group (6th line back) and the statistical truth of regression to the mean suggests that one was not a typical performance. Few horses here have put more than two top runs together except the 10, but that was awhile ago. Unzip Me has a good one over the local course and the best of this group at Woodbine but that long stretch does favor that type of late mover. Another interesting possibility, but at short odds, is the 2 who's 6th line back (at the flat Hollywood oval) puts that late move close a the wire as well. If the animal can revert to past runs, Unzip Me has a good shot to be closer to the pace ..having said that, Unzip Me has tailed off of late. The rail horse, a front runner in a race dominated by closers. comes in off a single huge effort on the poly...but that's it and doubt it will be repeated. Tough race
0 Replys
travel_vic
|
1/2/2012 9:30 AM
| - Re:
Will she be Up In Time a...
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