Saturday's 7th race from Prairie Meadows is the G3 Iowa Derby for 3-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.
This is an interesting mix of horses stretching out, trying Stakes company, and returning from layoffs. Let's start from the rail and work our way out.
#1 Down With Dixie (6-1) has been competitive vs. some decent runners. He finished a close 3rd vs. Fly Down and First Dude in a MSW event at Churchill last November and gradauted vs. subsequent Graded winner Endorsement at Fair Grounds this winter. He landed the show behind subsequent G3 Northern Dancer hero Colizeo May 9th and exits a Churchill Optional Claiming tally. The tactical colt figures to get the Bo-Rail treatment and should offer value. His trainer is a profitable 12% with his Graded Stakes starters.
#2 Vow To Wager (5-1) is a second stringer in his barn behind Paddy O'Prado and First Dude. He has placed in a pair of Stakes and owns a versatile running style for the 33% Albarado/Romans team.
#3 Thiskyhasnolimit (4-1) is a one-turn Churchill Downs specialist until proven otherwise. He looked good in his Kentucky return and clear place finisher Cool Bullet came back to nab a Stakes win at Monmouth.
#4 Winslow Homer (2-1) is the marquee name in this spot. He owns three wins and a close-up 3rd in four career starts. He went to the sidelines after beating Jackson Bend in the G3 Holy Bull in January and makes his first start since. His connections are easy to like and he has the talent to beat these but I would not take a short price on a horse coming back from an injury.
#5 Forestry Type (9-2) won the local prep for this and shoots for his 4th straight wire job. The improving sort is the lightweight on numbers and has to step it up again to compete here.
#6 Concord Point (5-2) is an interesting synthetic to dirt runner for the 40% Garcia/Baffert team. He tries a route of ground for the first time and sports a bullet for this. He earned a strong number in a close-up Graded place finish at Hollywood May 22 and might be this good.
The Plays: $18 to win #1, $12 Quinella 1-6
Analysis by Jarrod Horak