THE PREAKNESS STAKES
Orb rolls into the Preakness as the only one capable of
pulling off a Triple Crown feat. This
race is usually the Derby champ’s to win.
I like his connections, but am curious as to if the post position draw
could be a detriment to his succeeding.
Let’s take a look at the field:
1 – Orb(Even, Tr.
Shug McGaughey; Jy. Joel Rosario. Sire:
Malibu Moon; Broodmare Sire: Unbridled; Career: 8-5-0-1, $2,335,850) Orb comes into this race off of a 5-race
winning streak. His performance in the
Derby was head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field. He merits the favorite’s role, but now he
takes on a couple of new foes. Is he
2 – Goldencents(8-1,
Tr. Doug O’Neill; Jy. Kevin Krigger.
Sire: Into Mischief; Broodmare Sire: Banker’s Gold; Career: 7-4-1-0,
$1,250,000) Turned in his worst
performance to date, in the Derby, and was eased up. Possibly didn’t take to the off going. He should improve off that performance, and
be among the leaders in the early going of this race. Can he return to the form of old?
3 – Titletown
Five(30-1, Tr. D. Wayne Lukas; Jy. Julien Leparoux. Sire: Tiznow; Broodmare Sire: Forest Wildcat;
Career: 7-1-2-1, $87,398) One of
three entrants for Lukas. Picks up the
services of Leparoux. Ran way up the
track in the Louisiana Derby, and last out was a fading fourth in the Derby
Trial @ Churchill. Looks to be the
rabbit for Lukas. Guess he’s in the race
to keep the pace honest?
4 – Departing(6-1,
Tr. Albert Stall, Jr.; Jy. Brian Hernandez.
Sire: War Front; Broodmare Sire: Pulpit; Career: 5-4-0-1, $628,000) Nice colt comes into this one off of a
Illinois Derby victory. Has only one
blemish on his record. Going the route
of Illinois cost him valuable Derby points, but the purse money was worth it. Could he cost the Derby’s image by pulling an
5 – Mylute(5-1, Tr.
Thomas Amoss; Jy. Rosie Napravnik. Sire:
Midnight Lute; Broodmare Sire: Valid Expectations; Career: 10-2-3-2,
$477,695) Was coming late in the
Derby, only to fall short. Seems that
he’s always involved in the latter stages of the race, but doesn’t seem to want
to prevail. Could change of scenery be
to his liking?
6 – Oxbow(16-1, Tr.
D. Wayne Lukas; Jy. Gary Stevens. Sire:
Awesome Agains; Broodmare Sire: Cee’s Tizzy; Career: 10-2-1-1, $383,500) 2nd of Lukas’ charges. Jockey/trainer combo try to pull off a memory
lane upset. Probably wasn’t too fond of the ‘goo’ in the Derby, but his last
two races have been his worst performances to date. Not a good sign coming into this race, but,
Lukas has done it before. Is this a trip
down memory lane?
7 – Will Take
Charge(12-1, Tr. D. Wayne Lukas; Jy. Mike Smith. Sire: Unbridled’s Song; Broodmare Sire: Dehere; Career: 8-3-1-0, $545,371) Last of the Lukas throng. Picks up the services of HOF Mike Smith. Seems he was making a late charge in the
Derby, only to be thwarted by a horse in front of him that was backing up. Might get some support from some, who think
that if he’s not hampered in his late charge, he might get up. Lukas won’t get many more opportunities. Is he trying to stack the deck in his favor?
8 – Governor
Charlie(12-1, Tr. Bob Baffert; Jy. Martin Garcia. Sire: Midnight Lute; Broodmare Sire: Storm
Cat; Career: 3-2-1-0, $444,800) Part
owner; breeder; owner of sire; owner of grand sire; owner of broodmare. All of this, and Mike Pegram opted not to have Baffert
run this charge in the Derby(though he had won the Derby and this race with his
sire’s sire). Not many would pass on the
Derby. He is lightly raced, but
jockey/trainer have won this race before(Lookin At Lucky). Is he too green for a maximum performance?
Itsmyluckyday(10-1, Tr. Edward Plesa, Jr.; Jy. John Velazquez. Sire: Lawyer Ron; Broodmare Sire: Doneraile
Court; Career: 11-5-2-1, $625,600) He
didn’t take to the off going in the Derby, but earlier this year, he had
recorded a track record at Gulfstream.
Now he picks up the services of JV.
Though he was near the top of his game when setting the record, has he
slid into mediocrity?
Based on their recent past performances of up to 3 months
ago, we’ll look at their first half mile, the middle(4F to 6F), the first ¾
mile, the closing 5 ½ furlongs, the projected closing 3 ½ furlongs, and the
final time, based on the Track Equalization Chart. We will take the top three at each
distance(or more, if they are within .07 of the third best time). NOTE: Based on the off track, the
Kentucky Derby was not that much of a factor in these times.
First ½ Mile Middle
Titletown Five(FG, 1 1/8) :46.8 Orb(GP, 1 1/16) :23.53
Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8) :46.84 Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8) :23.59
Goldencents(SA, 1 1/16) :46.88 Orb(CD, 1 ¼)SY :24.39
1 1/8) :24.43
1 1/8) :24.43
First ¾ Mile Closing 5 ½
Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8) 1:10.43 Departing(Hou, 1M) 1:06.96
Orb(GP, 1 1/16) 1:11.08 Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8) 1:07.98
Goldencents(SA, 1 1/16) 1:11.42 Departing(Haw, 1 1/8) 1:08.32
Closing 3 ½ Furlongs Final
Departing(Hou, 1M) :42.54 Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8) 1:54.82
Departing(Haw, 1 1/8) :43.27 Departing(Hou, 1M) 1:55.46
Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8) :44.39 Departing(Haw, 1 1/8) 1:56.34
First of all, good luck to Orb on his journey to become
horse racing’s twelfth Triple Crown winner.
That being said, I wasn’t that impressed, but maybe more disappointed,
in the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. A
lot was compromised by many, that resulted in the finish. Most had not had prior off track experience,
and it showed. Orb is coming into this
race on a five race win streak. As the
even money favorite, I tend to look elsewhere for the big payoff, and feel that
he might be in for a “bounce”.
Since this race has taken on a different persona, due to the
Kentucky Derby point system, I am looking at a couple of newcomers this race,
notably Governor Charlie, and, most importantly, Departing. We’ll go 5-10-20 WPS on #4 Departing; try a
$4 exacta box with #4, #8 Governor Charlie, and #2 Goldencents, and close it
off with a $1 Trifecta box, #1 Orb, #2, #4, and #8. Total bet - $83.