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Preakness - There's some new kids in town

5/16/2013 6:13 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$83.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

THE PREAKNESS STAKES

Orb rolls into the Preakness as the only one capable of pulling off a Triple Crown feat.  This race is usually the Derby champ’s to win.  I like his connections, but am curious as to if the post position draw could be a detriment to his succeeding.  Let’s take a look at the field:

1 – Orb(Even, Tr. Shug McGaughey; Jy. Joel Rosario.  Sire: Malibu Moon; Broodmare Sire: Unbridled; Career: 8-5-0-1, $2,335,850)  Orb comes into this race off of a 5-race winning streak.  His performance in the Derby was head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field.  He merits the favorite’s role, but now he takes on a couple of new foes.  Is he ready?

2 – Goldencents(8-1, Tr. Doug O’Neill; Jy. Kevin Krigger.  Sire: Into Mischief; Broodmare Sire: Banker’s Gold; Career: 7-4-1-0, $1,250,000)  Turned in his worst performance to date, in the Derby, and was eased up.  Possibly didn’t take to the off going.  He should improve off that performance, and be among the leaders in the early going of this race.  Can he return to the form of old?

3 – Titletown Five(30-1, Tr. D. Wayne Lukas; Jy. Julien Leparoux.  Sire: Tiznow; Broodmare Sire: Forest Wildcat; Career: 7-1-2-1, $87,398)  One of three entrants for Lukas.  Picks up the services of Leparoux.  Ran way up the track in the Louisiana Derby, and last out was a fading fourth in the Derby Trial @ Churchill.  Looks to be the rabbit for Lukas.  Guess he’s in the race to keep the pace honest?

4 – Departing(6-1, Tr. Albert Stall, Jr.; Jy. Brian Hernandez.  Sire: War Front; Broodmare Sire: Pulpit; Career: 5-4-0-1, $628,000)  Nice colt comes into this one off of a Illinois Derby victory.  Has only one blemish on his record.  Going the route of Illinois cost him valuable Derby points, but the purse money was worth it.  Could he cost the Derby’s image by pulling an upset?

5 – Mylute(5-1, Tr. Thomas Amoss; Jy. Rosie Napravnik.  Sire: Midnight Lute; Broodmare Sire: Valid Expectations; Career: 10-2-3-2, $477,695)  Was coming late in the Derby, only to fall short.  Seems that he’s always involved in the latter stages of the race, but doesn’t seem to want to prevail.  Could change of scenery be to his liking?

6 – Oxbow(16-1, Tr. D. Wayne Lukas; Jy. Gary Stevens.  Sire: Awesome Agains; Broodmare Sire: Cee’s Tizzy; Career: 10-2-1-1, $383,500)  2nd of Lukas’ charges.  Jockey/trainer combo try to pull off a memory lane upset. Probably wasn’t too fond of the ‘goo’ in the Derby, but his last two races have been his worst performances to date.  Not a good sign coming into this race, but, Lukas has done it before.  Is this a trip down memory lane?

7 – Will Take Charge(12-1, Tr. D. Wayne Lukas; Jy. Mike Smith.  Sire: Unbridled’s Song; Broodmare Sire:  Dehere; Career: 8-3-1-0, $545,371)  Last of the Lukas throng.  Picks up the services of HOF Mike Smith.  Seems he was making a late charge in the Derby, only to be thwarted by a horse in front of him that was backing up.  Might get some support from some, who think that if he’s not hampered in his late charge, he might get up.  Lukas won’t get many more opportunities.  Is he trying to stack the deck in his favor?

8 – Governor Charlie(12-1, Tr. Bob Baffert; Jy. Martin Garcia.  Sire: Midnight Lute; Broodmare Sire: Storm Cat; Career: 3-2-1-0, $444,800)  Part owner; breeder; owner of sire; owner of grand sire; owner of broodmare.  All of this, and Mike Pegram opted not to have Baffert run this charge in the Derby(though he had won the Derby and this race with his sire’s sire).  Not many would pass on the Derby.  He is lightly raced, but jockey/trainer have won this race before(Lookin At Lucky).  Is he too green for a maximum performance?

9 – Itsmyluckyday(10-1, Tr. Edward Plesa, Jr.; Jy. John Velazquez.  Sire: Lawyer Ron; Broodmare Sire: Doneraile Court; Career: 11-5-2-1, $625,600)  He didn’t take to the off going in the Derby, but earlier this year, he had recorded a track record at Gulfstream.  Now he picks up the services of JV.  Though he was near the top of his game when setting the record, has he slid into mediocrity?

Race Analysis

Based on their recent past performances of up to 3 months ago, we’ll look at their first half mile, the middle(4F to 6F), the first ¾ mile, the closing 5 ½ furlongs, the projected closing 3 ½ furlongs, and the final time, based on the Track Equalization Chart.  We will take the top three at each distance(or more, if they are within .07 of the third best time). NOTE: Based on the off track, the Kentucky Derby was not that much of a factor in these times.

                                                First ½ Mile                                                                        Middle

Titletown Five(FG, 1 1/8)              :46.8                      Orb(GP, 1 1/16)                                                :23.53

Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8)      :46.84                    Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8)      :23.59

Goldencents(SA, 1 1/16)               :46.88                    Orb(CD, 1 ¼)SY                                 :24.39

                                                                                                Departing(Hou, 1M)                       :24.42

                                                                                                Goldencents(SA, 1 1/8)                 :24.43

                                                                                                Orb(GP, 1 1/8)                                   :24.43

                                                First ¾ Mile                                                        Closing 5 ½ Furlongs

Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8)      1:10.43                  Departing(Hou, 1M)                       1:06.96

Orb(GP, 1 1/16)                                                1:11.08                  Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8)      1:07.98

Goldencents(SA, 1 1/16)               1:11.42                  Departing(Haw, 1 1/8)                   1:08.32

                                Closing 3 ½ Furlongs                                                                       Final Time

Departing(Hou, 1M)                       :42.54                    Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8)      1:54.82

Departing(Haw, 1 1/8)                   :43.27                    Departing(Hou, 1M)                       1:55.46

Governor Charlie(Sun, 1 1/8)      :44.39                    Departing(Haw, 1 1/8)                   1:56.34

THE PICKS

First of all, good luck to Orb on his journey to become horse racing’s twelfth Triple Crown winner.  That being said, I wasn’t that impressed, but maybe more disappointed, in the outcome of the Kentucky Derby.  A lot was compromised by many, that resulted in the finish.  Most had not had prior off track experience, and it showed.  Orb is coming into this race on a five race win streak.  As the even money favorite, I tend to look elsewhere for the big payoff, and feel that he might be in for a “bounce”. 

Since this race has taken on a different persona, due to the Kentucky Derby point system, I am looking at a couple of newcomers this race, notably Governor Charlie, and, most importantly, Departing.  We’ll go 5-10-20 WPS on #4 Departing; try a $4 exacta box with #4, #8 Governor Charlie, and #2 Goldencents, and close it off with a $1 Trifecta box, #1 Orb, #2, #4, and #8.  Total bet - $83.

Well, the dust has settled, and, boy, Lukas has never ceased to amaze me!!!!!! The only comforting thing that I can take away from this race, was that looking back, I couldn't have picked Oxbow, even knowing now what I didn't know then. Congrats to Lukas, Stevens, and all who believed in this colt. Still can't get over the fact that this was the slowest time since 1961. Wow, how things had changed over the years. What's even stranger, is that only four horses ran under 1:57 from '61 back to when this race was run at 1 3/16 mile. Oddest fact of all?????????? The slowest time ever to win the Preakness Stakes at this distance, belongs to Citation in 1948. The last Triple Crown winner before Secretariat renewed the TC accomplishment. Next, the Belmont Stakes. Where's have Temperence Hill, Da Tara, or Sarava gone?
ruffian75 | 5/19/2013 5:14 PM |  - Re: Preakness - There's some...
I agree with you completely on Departing but I like Will Take Charge and Mylute over Govenor Charlie and Goldencents but good luck!
jmac500 | 5/16/2013 9:55 PM |  - Re: Preakness - There's some...
Thanks, Mary. Good luck on your selections.
ruffian75 | 5/16/2013 9:29 PM |  - Re: Preakness - There's some...
I like your tri box picks, ruffian. Just posted my top four contenders at a Preakness thread. GL. I have Orb, Goldencents, Departing, Govenor Charlie.
Mary Z. | 5/16/2013 9:21 PM |  - Re: Preakness - There's some...
Thank you, Ace. Good luck on your picks.
ruffian75 | 5/16/2013 9:19 PM |  - Re: Preakness - There's some...
i can't go the the windows without checking the ruffian75 ratings, i respect the fact that your throwing a knockout punch in this race, good luck and thanx for the picks...ACE
phryb | 5/16/2013 8:37 PM |  - Re: Preakness - There's some...

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