Grade 1 Arkansas Derby - Analysis by Jarrod Horak

4/9/2010 12:28 PM
Track:
Author:
Amount Bet:
$50.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

It is a great sign when a returning 3yo jumps up and earns a new top in his seasonal bow, and that is just what #3 Noble's Promise (2-1) did in the Grade 2 Rebel. Robby Albarado got to know him that day and his tactical speed should give him every chance to down this crew. Take Lookin At Lucky out of the equation and you are looking at a horse with a flashy win record. The only knock is his sprint oriented pedigree, but many horses have overcome apparent breeding weaknesses and the numbers suggest he is a major contender in this spot. #2 Dublin (7-2) is running out of excuses. He has now lost four straight and Lukas is hardly reliable in the Graded Stakes ranks (4% wins, 141-race sample). He reunites with Thompson and will probably sit back and make a late run but my top should get a big jump on him. #1 Super Saver (9-5) is the inside speed and will take them as far as he can. He needed the Tampa Bay Derby but that race did not look strong visually and it remains to be seen if he has progressed from his juvenile campaign. For exotics purposes, #5 Uh Oh Bango (15-1) and #9 Pulsion (15-1) are worth a look. The former needed his Rebel return and can spring forward, while the latter dueled Rule into submission in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and will probably relax after removing the hood. #4 Northern Giant (8-1) picked up checks in a pair of weak Graded events (Lane's End, Risen Star). I would not be shocked if the other Lukas landed another minor award. #8 Line of David (15-1) was impressive in a pair of Santa Anita turf route wire job wins but is not quick enough to get the lead in here. #6 New Madrid (20-1) is an interesting long term prospect for Tim Ice but this is a tough spot for the improving son of Rock Hard Ten. #7 Berberis (30-1) is very soft on numbers and would be a surprise. The Plays: $30 to win #3, $8 Exacta 3-2, 50 cent Trifecta 2-3/2-3-5-9/1-2-3-4-5-9 ($12) 

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Visit Horse Racing Nation for the best list of 2010 Kentucky Derby contenders.  Currently, the top Kentucky Derby favorites are Eskendereya, Lookin At Lucky and Sidney's Candy.



Jarrod:
Once again I am in complete with your fantastic analysis. I am on your top two picks. Will be rolling with a 10 CENT Superfect with #3 Noble's Promise / #2 Dublin / #4 Northern Giant, #7 Berberis, #1 Super Saver / #4, #7, #1.

Here is a thought though, Watch for #7 Berberis (Gryder / Asmussen) who was recently released from the Fairgrounds maiden ranks. Don't worry he won't be trying to corner any silver or gold. He will be just chasing a Saver, a Promise, a Giant and a David. This colt appears to be trainer, Steve Asmussen's only shot at Derby glory. I too think it would be a big surprise, but stranger things have happended in the Derby preps this year.

Thanks for the fine analysis, once again.
sandbagger12 | 4/10/2010 8:09 AM |  - Re: Grade 1 Arkansas Derby -...

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