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Hot pace set up in the G2 Rebel

3/16/2013 9:31 AM
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POST TIME 6:48 EDT--Sharp field of 11 assembles to do battle in this year's contentious edition of the G2 Rebel Stakes.  There is no question that the pace of this race will be several points over par.  #1A Title Contender has one job to do and that is get out to the front and ensure a hot pace for the "closing" part of the Gary and Mary West coupling, #1 Treasury Bill.  Joining that early fray will be the Pletcher trained #4 Delhomme and will be making his 2013 debut.  Also applying grueling pace pressure will be #9 Oxbow and the Baffert charge, #10 Super Ninety Nine.  The latter being the deserved favorite.  On pace figures alone (considering the balance between early and late) there's no doubt that #4 Delhomme (with the added advantage of producing his figures at the 1 1/8 distance) and #10 Super Ninety Nine (discount that lone lead slop win focus on his Optional Claimer victory) are a few notches above their Rebel rivals.  However, this race has the feel of one that could fall apart late if the early pace is particularly energy zapping.  I am going to target that as the most likely outcome while devising a contingency plan.  So, Plan A (wicked early pace) has me focused on #2 Carve as my top value play.  He has the benefit of two route victories over this OP surface and, in that last race in particular, you had to like how his energy was steadily dispensed throughout every stage in that race with what appeared to be the easiest of wins with strong late pace figs.  Expect another move forward today and there will be no excuses regarding and ideal pace set up.  #1 Treasury Bill will be negotiating two turns for the first time and I am always wary of decidedly "late" sprinter types maintaining that late turn of foot as the move to routes.  However, his breeding and training connections suggest the stretch out will not be a problem.  Super bomber #3 Texas Bling deserves a look.  Toss his last in the slop and rate off the Smarty Jones event.  Could see hitting the board here atjuicy odds.  Plan B (swift but not suicidal pace)--#10 Super Ninety Nine looks the best in this scenario and everyone else is running for second.  I believe one of those closers mentioned previously will pass tired horses to complete the Exacta or Trifecta.

THE WAGER:

$50 Win #2

$1 Trifecta #10 with 1,2,3 with ALL

$1 Trifecta #10 with ALL with 1,2,3

$10 Exacta 1,2,3 with 10


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Older Comments about Hot pace set up in the G2 Rebel...

Shutty. I love the trifecta idea. Treasury Bill is my top pick, and have him across the board, but I am afraid of the 10... I think I'll do the same thing, maybe instead of 1,2,3 I'll do 1-2-4.... Good Luck mshutty.
E2/109/LP 94-E2 104/LP 93- If they beat this guy, with these pace figures, in this particular race, they deserve my money. Carve, just talking to a friend who commented " if this horse wins someone at Claiborne will be fired."
1 $ 8 4 $ 11 9 $ 10 10 $ 20 Early Dutch ratios.......odds will alter this probably to make the race a pass with what I know the crowd will do with the Baffert colt.

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