I think the Southwest puts this guy on the map. He has several things going for him.
1. Good post - post 2
2. Good pace scenario - 6 speed horses outside
3. Great record - Horse is one 2nd place finish away from being undefeated.
4. Good Beyers - His last race Beyer figure of 87 is fourth-best in the race. Dryfly and Conveyance are coming off 91's where they were lone speed. Well, they can't both be lone speed on Saturday. So the horse fits and we get a good price, he she be longer than the fourth betting choice.
5. Good breeding - Pleasant Tap means he should continue to stretch out well and will only get better with age.
6. Working well
7. Form cycle - 2nd start off a layoff and steadily improving Beyers
That's a lot of positives for a horse that could go off at 12-1 or better. This horse has done nothing wrong, and had a tough trip in his last. Give him a few points for being wide on both turns last time, and his Beyer is as good or better than anyone in the field.
The trainer, Joe Petalino, has not had a great meet so far, but don't kid yourself, this guy is the big hope of the barn and likely gets plenty of attention. Really, the biggest negative is that the one mile distance at Oaklawn features a short stretch with a special finish line. That might be enough to keep him in second, but that's why we'll back up with some exactas just in case.
The bet:
$50 to win (need odds of 8-1 or better, but preferably 12-1)
$20 exactas under the D's (Dublin, Dryfly, Domonation)
Past performances courtesy of Daily Racing Form