Monday's 9th race (5:09pm CT) from Oaklawn Park is the Grade III Southwest Stakes for 3-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.
#5 Always in a Tiz (4-1) was short on seasoning and two turn experience as my overbet top in the Smarty Jones but he was the 3rd neck on the line despite his shortcomings. Paco Lopez knows him now and he could easily spring forward 3rd off the shelf. Tactical types do well in 8.5 furlong races at Oaklawn and he figures to be in the right position throughout.
Play Monday's $300 Oaklawn Park game at DerbyWars.com
#6 Super Ninety Nine (7-5) ran fast in a one mile Optional Claiming win at Santa Anita less than three weeks ago. Baffert is deadly when he ships to Oaklawn Park and he probably wins this with anything resembling his last. He projects a tactical trip under Bejarano.
#7 Fear the Kitten (15-1) won two straight to begin his career and got no pace help in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and G3 Lecomte. Napravnik hops aboard Maker's stretch runner and he can grab a big piece of this if the pace heats up.
$18 to win #5
$2 Exacta 5-7/6 ($4)
.50 cent Trifecta 5-6/ALL/7 ($8)
analysis by Jarrod Horak