Always in a Tiz can spring forward in Southwest

2/17/2013 5:58 PM

Track:

Oaklawn Park

Race:

2/18/2013 - Race 9

Author:

mdracing69

Amount Bet:

$30.00

Amount Cashed:

$0.00

Monday's 9th race (5:09pm CT) from Oaklawn Park is the Grade III Southwest Stakes for 3-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.

#5 Always in a Tiz (4-1) was short on seasoning and two turn experience as my overbet top in the Smarty Jones but he was the 3rd neck on the line despite his shortcomings. Paco Lopez knows him now and he could easily spring forward 3rd off the shelf. Tactical types do well in 8.5 furlong races at Oaklawn and he figures to be in the right position throughout.

Play Monday's $300 Oaklawn Park game at DerbyWars.com

#6 Super Ninety Nine (7-5) ran fast in a one mile Optional Claiming win at Santa Anita less than three weeks ago. Baffert is deadly when he ships to Oaklawn Park and he probably wins this with anything resembling his last. He projects a tactical trip under Bejarano.

#7 Fear the Kitten (15-1) won two straight to begin his career and got no pace help in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and G3 Lecomte. Napravnik hops aboard Maker's stretch runner and he can grab a big piece of this if the pace heats up.

The Plays:

$18 to win #5

$2 Exacta 5-7/6 ($4)

.50 cent Trifecta 5-6/ALL/7 ($8)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

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My longshot 3rd place Trifecta key Fear the Kitten ran a bit too well and ended up 2nd behind runaway winner Super Ninety Nine. It was bombs away under the chalk. Close but no cigar.

mdracing69 | 2/18/2013 5:50 PM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

I will key the 6 for lst and 2nd in the tri with 3 4 5 10

mrharness45 | 2/18/2013 11:47 AM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

653 are the obvious contenders
baffert is MR Money at this tracka nd this time of year
narrow price return but baffert is a solid pick here and if he improves at all off that last
everyone else will be running for a view of his rear end

colt45ss | 2/18/2013 9:14 AM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

Early before any scratched, contenders are: 6 Super Ninety Nine 10 Big Lute 5 Always in a Tiz
3 Will Take Charge 8 6 3 may be prompters for a bit and knowing that course not much will come very late unless they want third or 4th.

travel_vic | 2/18/2013 8:33 AM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

I have seen the best of them go on a short dry spell and suspend all betting, just to find out what is amiss. Our Sartin group found this the case about 4 seasons ago at innern AQU. When Joe N., a member who knew the grounds keeper at Philly investigated, he found that the track maintenance director had changed his whole way of grooming the course which made it later for amout 5 weeks.....NOTHING stays the same in racing, it repeats often, but is in a fluid state all the time.

travel_vic | 2/18/2013 8:25 AM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

Frauds constantly adhere to the old cognitive impairment which becomes obvious when they try to fill in empty gaps. The Dunning–Kruger effect was put forward in 1999 by Justin Kruger and David Dunning. Dunning and Kruger quote Charles Darwin ("Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge") and Bertrand Russell ("One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"). Unable to know what they don't know allows one's supposed mastery of that tiny bit of knowledge within the whole spectrum to fulfill what they believe is mastery of the entire subject, when it is far from it.... It takes a lifetime to become master of almost anything and the wise understand this never closing the doors of education.

travel_vic | 2/18/2013 8:19 AM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

"Someone who thinks he knows everything and refuses to accept advice or information from others." As I said in that AK thread, that quote fits you and KIA perfectly.

rafirox | 2/18/2013 8:07 AM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

The best of them use session play, allocating a portion of total bankroll to an end, let\s say 10% for exotics, 15% for straight. When they have exhusted that sessions dedicated money, they simply stop, lick their wounds and come back another day.

travel_vic | 2/18/2013 7:55 AM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

Re-reading, I wanna make clear, 4 mil is not my life earnings.... It sounded like it was. I don't want to mention finacial stuff at all, but my life earnings are NOT 4 million.

rafirox | 2/18/2013 7:54 AM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

I am holding my sides with laughter. Even if you put that kind of money in the CHURN if would be hard to accept. Another in a long line of self appointed kings, when in reality, the real whales bet completely differently in 15 to 20 pools in 5 or 6 countries per day. Woodbine has special private areas for them, as do most major tracks and you NOR I would have the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ to get through that door!

travel_vic | 2/18/2013 7:50 AM | - Re: Always in a Tiz can spri...

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