Ticker
  • Top Billing posts :38 2/5 for 3F work at Payson ParkPosted 8 hours ago
  • Dortmund wins a thrilling three-way photo in the Los Alamitos Futurity!Posted 8 hours ago
  • Sky Flight gets up late in the Tropical Park Derby Posted 10 hours ago
  • Cinco Charlie wins the Sugar Bowl for his 4th juvenile stakes win. Posted 14 hours ago
  • Grand Contender best in a sloppy Buddy DilibertoPosted 1 day ago
  • California Chrome covers 4F in :49.00 at Los Al (2/2)Posted 1 day ago
  • There will be a Pick Six carryover of $18,465 when racing resumes Friday at Los Alamitos.Posted 2 days ago
  • Bayerd gets the job done in the Springboard Mile! Posted 6 days ago
  • Acceptance remains unbeaten in winning the King Glorious! Posted 6 days ago
  • Good Luck Gus best in the Damon Runyon! Posted 6 days ago

There's double trouble in the G2 Louisiana Derby

3/29/2014 6:50 AM
Author:

 

POST TIME 7:10 PM EST--Not only is this year's Louisiana Derby coming up to be a very solid Kentucky Derby prep race, but it also offers one heck of a betting opportunity.  A full field of 10 have assembled to battle for Derby points and the track conditions will feature a dry, fast surface.  Pace projects to be honest, but quite frankly, I believe the early leaders and those in touch with those leaders offer the best shot at the win spot.  It seems pretty clear that your early duelers will be comprised of the head-strong Bret Calhoun charge, #3 Louies Flower and, to his outside, #8 Rise Up who looks to redeem himself here post his flop last time out in the Risen Star stakes.  The two outside horses, #9 In Trouble and #10 Albano look to comfortably slot in behind the early leaders to secure an ideal stalking position.  After a compromised post position assignment in the Risen Star, #6 Vicar's in Trouble finds a better spot today and is my candidate to secure the ideal off-the-pace trip sitting 4 lengths or so off the leaders in about 5th place early on.  Coming out of the Risen Star, you have to tip your hat to the winner that day, #1 Intense Holiday, as that colt overcame a modest, but contested pace, to secure an immpressive victory.  #10 Albano, in that same race, lead them from gate to a few feet before the wire.  While the "numbers" indicate a modest pace that day, a few in here challenged #10 Albano but they were readily dismissed.  The explanation for this can be found in the BRIS Late Pace figure for #10 Albano.  He turned on the after burners during the enire length of the long stretch posting a very strong Late Pace figure of 102.  #1 Intense Holiday was just running a bit faster in the stretch after an easy early trip to nip #10 Albano at the wire.  From my point of view, #10 Albano ran the best of all charges that competed in the Risen Star.  That being said, look for the third place finisher in that race, #6 Vicar's in Trouble to improve big time today for trainer Michael Maker and the omnipresent owners, Ken and Sarah Ramsey.  After a crushing 13-length victory in his maiden score, #6 Vicar's in Trouble came back to crush the likes of #10 Albano in the Le Comte stakes but regressing significantly off that 103 BRIS Speed Rating achieved in his maiden victory.  In the Risen Star, that 13 post really hurt but I really liked that strong middle move and movement forward in the form cycle.  Appears to be sitting on another 5 to 6  point move forward today.  I tab this one as my top win contender.  Now, no one likes to talk about Tony Dutrow horses, but the shipper from New York (and NY shippers do very well here), #9 In Trouble, looks mighty, mighty tough second off the very long layoff.  This impressive winner of the G2 Futurity is probably best at middle distance races but this one owns dangerous speed and a bit of a will to not quit.  If he can rate a bit, this one could suprise some and take it all.

The Wager:

$.50 Superfecta 6,9 with 1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10 with 1,7,10 with All

$.50 Trifecta 1,6,9,10 with 1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10 with 1,6,9,10

6,1,7,9 for a paltry pay off of $238 on the $.50 Superfecta. Total wager was $162 ($.50 Superfecta and $.50 Trifecta)
mshutty | 3/29/2014 6:54 PM |  - Re: There's double trouble i...
should read you have to include NON contenders....
travel_vic | 3/29/2014 10:46 AM |  - Re: There's double trouble i...
no o ne in their right mind would LIMIT a super bet (one that I do not support) wiht less than about 6 horses. You have to include NO contenders that are pace horses hanging on or "from the clouds" horses that do not get up. IN last years K Derby, the show animals fit that latter description. In trifectas wagers are often built off two templates: the SPLITZACTA where contenders are keyed 1st and 3rd with non-contenders in between, or exactas with multiple orse underneath. EACH race is different as well: if the odds dictate, YOU KNOW THE STRAW VOTE OF THE CROWD YOU ARE PLAYING AGAINST?, marks a logical contender at very short odds (the Woodward a few years back comes to mind with Quality Road) it is often best to just PASS the race as non-playable, BUT ALL THESE situations are never even considered until the ODDS are known and that is not until about 30 seconds before post. Electronically you can have the wagers in a file awaiting the bet, and release them whenever you want or IF you want at that time.
travel_vic | 3/29/2014 10:46 AM |  - Re: There's double trouble i...
yu play the game YOUR way, I will play it mine: ACUTALLT waiting unitl the collective movement of the crowd in selecting their choices allows the careful investor the opportunity to go where they don't. The morning line odds maker is not stupid either.
travel_vic | 3/29/2014 10:32 AM |  - Re: There's double trouble i...
Not sure about your wagering strategy. If I'm calculating correctly, your Superfecta would be 2 X 7 X 3 X 8? That would be $168? Not sure why you would throw the #3 in the second slot, but not in the first or third slot. The fourth slot has all covered. The Trifecta would be simpler, being $36, for, if I'm calculating correctly $204. You might take less of a hit in the wallet if you lower the denomination of the Superfecta bet, maybe $.30? Anyhow, good luck. Nice analysis.
CauseForConcern | 3/29/2014 10:29 AM |  - Re: There's double trouble i...
Hey Vic, I respect the fact that you do know the game quite well and have been around it far longer than me but I do realize a lot of the "contenders" you give are half the fields with all the morning line favorites. Lets try getting creative here haha
rhg1217 | 3/29/2014 10:02 AM |  - Re: There's double trouble i...
contenders 1 Intense Holiday 9 In Trouble 10 Albano 6 Vicar's in Trouble

big late movers 9 1 10 6 7 contend down the stretch there
travel_vic | 3/29/2014 8:20 AM |  - Re: There's double trouble i...

Add a Comment

Please login first before adding a comment.

Plays

This play does not have any play types assigned.