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Pick of the Litter the "Pick" in Coolmore Lexington Stakes

4/20/2013 8:17 AM
Track:
Author:

 

POST TIME - 5:13 PM EDT -- #2 Pick of the Litter failed to make an impact in the Florida Derby while moving up against some of the best 3 year-olds in the country after a blow away maiden win going 1 1/8 miles against 3 other rivals on the Gulfstream Park dirt.  This Dale Roman's charge out of the Polytrack-friendly sire Kitten's Joy, gets a shot against more favorable competition to score at likely odds of 10 -1 or higher.  The drop in distance from two 1 1/8 miles races, works to his advantage.   #3 River Rocks appears to be your pace setter in this affair and will take the field to midstretch with an opportunity to stick around for a piece of the Superfecta.  #5 Where's Dominic is my top 20-1+ board-hitting bomber.  His Maryland roots will not impress some but this is another that is taking a drop back in distance after moving forward in each of his last four starts.  Get's blinkers on today and Trombetta is batting 24% (57% in the money) with that equipment change angle.  Works indicate that this move has served the purpose of working in some extra early kick out of this game colt.  #6 Sunbean will be bet by virtue of his troubled Louisiana Derby start (which a review of the replay shows that he and Palace Malice did get the worst of it in that race).  Gary Stevens takes the mount and an on-the-board finish will be no surprise but he'll be over bet.  A huge win here, however, would offer some clues as to the quality of the Louisiana Derby as a Kentucky Derby prep race.  #7 Examen ships in from California and looms dangerous here.  Proven on turf, has moved up in each of his three lifetime starts and may offer hidden value at the windows...dangerous win contender.  #8 Cerro will be overbet and probably needs a race.  Don't leave off your exotics but don't worry about covering that win spot too much.  #11 Pure Fun, the filly, is prepping for a start in the Oaks two weeks later.  Has a very good shot to beat a field of second-tier colts. A live win contender.

THE WAGER:

$.50 Superfecta 2,7,11 with 5,6 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11

$1 Trifecta 2,7,11 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 5,6

$.50 Trifecta 5,7 with 2,11 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11

Nice analysis. I would have to question your betting strategy, though, especially your Superfecta wager. I roughly figured that would run you $147. Also, I don't see any genius in regards to placing the #1 in only the fourth slot. Seems like a waste. Why not just say "All", since you've only excluded one horse? Anyhow, good luck on your investment/possible profit.
CauseForConcern | 4/20/2013 8:54 AM |  - Re: Pick of the Litter the "...

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