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Keeneland - Grade 1 Alcibiades

10/7/2010 4:00 PM
Amount Bet:
Amount Cashed:


Friday's 9th race (5:20PM ET) from Keeneland is the G1 Alcibiades for 2-year-old fillies traveling a mile and a sixteenth on Polytrack.

#3 Jordy Y (4-1) rates a big chance to turn the tables on #4 Wonderlandbynight (3-1). My top choice easily captured her first two sprint starts at Arlington Park. She wired the field in her bow and stalked/pounced second time out. She stretched out to a flat mile and rallied wide into above par fractions in the Sept 11 Arlington-Washington Lassie. The key to her success in this event is positional speed. The pace will not be as quick and the versatile Jordy Y projects a tactical trip at a hint of a price. She has the 42% Alvarado/Catalano team in her corner and shows a solid local five furlong drill for this.

#6 Wickedly Perfect (5-2) might get brave if able to shake loose early. She won her first two outings and split 1-2 Oak Leaf finishers Rigoletta and Tell A Kelly at Del Mar last time. Does she want to go this far? Her Late Pace Ratings say no but slow early fractions will help her cause.  

Wonderlandbynight has captured four straight to begin her career (placed first in bow). The overachieving Illinois-bred will be finishing but might not get enough pace help in this spot.

#8 Dos Lunas (5-1) sports a local bullet and should sit a decent tactical trip. She lost both of her Graded starts and tries synthetic for the first time.

The Plays: #24 to win, $36 to place #3

analysis by Jarrod Horak

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who can close on fractions like this? 24.48 50.19 1:15.95 hardly grade one fractions but then no body came up tp press that one either
humphrey | 10/8/2010 11:48 AM |  - Re: Keeneland - Grade 1 Alci...
Smart ride: slow it down and have enough left
humphrey | 10/8/2010 11:23 AM |  - Re: Keeneland - Grade 1 Alci...
Nothing has won today with the profile of the 7/5 favorite at this distance. Unless 6 really steps up they will catch her down the lane. This one has improved at every outing and in babies they will surprise you, but a big turn around would be necessary
humphrey | 10/8/2010 11:17 AM |  - Re: Keeneland - Grade 1 Alci...
no bias today so the original evaluation stands....if anything, it is favoring the late movers
humphrey | 10/8/2010 10:26 AM |  - Re: Keeneland - Grade 1 Alci...
I wanted to like Jordy Y, but I just don't see how she will overcome Wonderlandbynight. Should be a fun race to watch!
ryanpatrickpatterson | 10/8/2010 6:03 AM |  - Re: Keeneland - Grade 1 Alci...
Either the 6 or the 8 COULD run away with this if the pace is right, never know HOW that track will run....If speed holds the from the clouds horses from Arlington may have a harder time getting up
humphrey | 10/8/2010 5:52 AM |  - Re: Keeneland - Grade 1 Alci...
Frostad scratched the rail horse
humphrey | 10/8/2010 5:50 AM |  - Re: Keeneland - Grade 1 Alci...
It is sad that such an important race has to be dictated by WHAT SURFACE you run on rather than true ability. The Poly Track/turfer three will dominate here with the pacesetter 6 Wickedly Perfect followed by the two closers 3 Jordy Y and 4 Wonderlandbynight. The change from turf may not hurt the late moving rail horse either 1 Proof Too as mark Frostad is not a leading conditioner at one of the largest meets in North American for nothing....BUT that one will have to be place much closer here to be effective. The tandem exiting the Arlington race appear to be much the best however.
humphrey | 10/8/2010 5:22 AM |  - Re: Keeneland - Grade 1 Alci...

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