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In good form

3/28/2013 6:44 AM
Amount Bet:
Amount Cashed:


 Flower Mart ,a Clement trained filly out of Street Sense is in good form and has nice figs to beat this field. With Jose Lezcano aboard,this filly overcomes the outside post and romps home..
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Yes and thank you.
amino998 | 3/29/2013 12:03 PM |  - Re: In good form
as they rise, they progressively get less accurate as compared to real probability....No plateus either, but that is an old study, could be different today
travel_vic | 3/29/2013 11:19 AM |  - Re: In good form
If you have the complete range curve, could you tell me if the 4-1 to 6-1 range fairs better than others?
amino998 | 3/29/2013 9:34 AM |  - Re: In good form
It simply states that at the low end of the probability range, the odds offered are really too high for the true probability of their winning.
travel_vic | 3/29/2013 9:31 AM |  - Re: In good form
Positive ROI on 2/5-1/2 shots>>Don't try this at home, kids :) Thanks.
amino998 | 3/29/2013 9:24 AM |  - Re: In good form
in Dr Z;s Beating the Race track p. 25 "Favricand's study of the comparison of the public's perception of the winning probabilities with the true winning probabilities in 10,000 races during 1955-1962...He found that horses in the odds range of 0.4 to 0.55 showed a profit of +3.4% whereas all other odds ranges were varying degrees of negative return.
travel_vic | 3/29/2013 9:15 AM |  - Re: In good form
This has me stumped>>Could you elaborate on how actual probability was determined?
amino998 | 3/29/2013 8:51 AM |  - Re: In good form
years ago a study compared the actual probability of a horse's winning to the porbability from the odds board, and at the LOW end, many many horses were overlays at very low odds as ICY says.
travel_vic | 3/29/2013 8:08 AM |  - Re: In good form
Whether you decide to bet depends on your own perception of the race. While it's always nice to have 2/1 coming your way, betting a 7/5 that you feel is even money IMO is an overlay. I especially like to parley those type priced horses, usually a 3 race maximum, and also bet then flat so that if your parley fails you still make a little. If it hits you make a lot. How long does it take to double your money in a CD. $6.20 is a price I'll take 24/7x 365 gl with you future picks
icyhotboo | 3/28/2013 10:33 PM |  - Re: In good form
Sorry it was 9 not 10. Thought there was another horse.
buckpasser | 3/28/2013 8:27 PM |  - Re: In good form
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