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In good form

3/28/2013 6:44 AM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$50.86
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

 Flower Mart ,a Clement trained filly out of Street Sense is in good form and has nice figs to beat this field. With Jose Lezcano aboard,this filly overcomes the outside post and romps home..
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Older Comments about In good form...

Yes and thank you.
as they rise, they progressively get less accurate as compared to real probability....No plateus either, but that is an old study, could be different today
If you have the complete range curve, could you tell me if the 4-1 to 6-1 range fairs better than others?
It simply states that at the low end of the probability range, the odds offered are really too high for the true probability of their winning.
Positive ROI on 2/5-1/2 shots>>Don't try this at home, kids :) Thanks.
in Dr Z;s Beating the Race track p. 25 "Favricand's study of the comparison of the public's perception of the winning probabilities with the true winning probabilities in 10,000 races during 1955-1962...He found that horses in the odds range of 0.4 to 0.55 showed a profit of +3.4% whereas all other odds ranges were varying degrees of negative return.
This has me stumped>>Could you elaborate on how actual probability was determined?
years ago a study compared the actual probability of a horse's winning to the porbability from the odds board, and at the LOW end, many many horses were overlays at very low odds as ICY says.
Whether you decide to bet depends on your own perception of the race. While it's always nice to have 2/1 coming your way, betting a 7/5 that you feel is even money IMO is an overlay. I especially like to parley those type priced horses, usually a 3 race maximum, and also bet then flat so that if your parley fails you still make a little. If it hits you make a lot. How long does it take to double your money in a CD. $6.20 is a price I'll take 24/7x 365 gl with you future picks
Sorry it was 9 not 10. Thought there was another horse.
The Florida Derby produced 12 winners of the Kentucky Derby (see prior post for names), the Wood according to Andy produced 11 wood winners who also won the Derby. For the record the Santa Anita Derby has produced by my count 10 winners: Hill Gail, Determine, Swaps, Lucky Deonair, Majestic Prince, Affirmed, Winning Colors, Sunday Silence, I'll Have Another and
$6.20 isn't that bad. I think, just my opinion, tv overreacts about prices. $6.20 for a horse you're CONFIDENT in is a fine wager. If you're confident, bet a good amount W-P and you'll get a fine payout. Nice hit, tessaglia. I didn't bet today, but I did handicap this race, just because you had a play of the day on it. I liked the 10-2-7. Came out 10-9-2.. Good hit!
Picking horses consistently that pay more than $8.00 is quite hard....I'll take a short $6.20 all day,once a day..as long as you play it good........
5th race - Gulfstream Park - Thursday, March 28, 2013 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 10 Flower Mart 6.20 3.80 3.20 9 Ardara 15.40 8.80 2 Unavailable 4.40
contenders: 10 Flower Mart 4 Daylight Cat 7 La Malaguena 1 Soot Z short PRICE will be no fun