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Dynamite betting race deserves a big play

1/30/2010 8:20 PM
Author:

 

Thirteen well-matched 3yo fillies - what a dynamite betting race! 

She Be Wild is a standout based on her BC Juv Filly win, but she's never raced on dirt, so this is a good chance to bet against her.  Yes, she's training great.  Yes, she's nearly perfect.  But to win at the races, you should never take short odds on horses doing something the first time.  Plus, she could be bet down to 7-5 in this race and it's too deep and wide open. 

So, where to look.  For us, all signs pointed to #7 Ailalea.  She's consistent, improving and she's got the best Beyer (89) in the field.  And she's not even favored.  She's perfect.  There's only one thing missing - John Velazquez.  Where is Johnny V?  Now wait, you might say that Edgar Prado has ridden this filly twice.  But so what?  Only in a maiden win.  Coa, who won the G3 Tempted on her, isn't in this race.  And c'mon, Johnny V rides everything for Pletcher.  I mean, everything.  He could have had this mount if he wanted.  So where did he go? 

Well, he went to #2 - Cascading.  So, let's check her out. 

This filly comes in from Canada with a list of positives.  She's training superb.  She loves the distance - in fact, she's been ridden out both times at this distance.  And both times sprinting she came home very strongly (closed in 12 1/5 last time).  She's got a great post.  She can rate off the pace, but she's got enough speed to stay close.   Her only bad race was a nightmarish trip routing - 5w6w on both turns. 

And then there's the breeding.  AP Indy on top - check.  Storm Cat on bottom - check.  And her dam, Teeming, she just happens to be a daughter of Better than Honour.  Sound familiar?  That's right... her grand-dam is the mother of Rags to Riches, Jazil, Casino Drive and recent BC Marathon winner Man of Iron.  What a family. 

The negatives?  Well, just two.  First, just like the favorite, she's never been on dirt.  But while the favorite will get hammered down, she could be 12-1 maybe even 15-1.  So, that's ok.  Secondly, her Beyers are a bit light at 77 and 78.  But that's actually a positive!  That's how we get this great of a price.  She's actually had pretty mediocre trips both times sprinting, so let's give her a couple more points and put her and 81-82.  That puts her right with the entire field, and just a couple steps behind the two favorites.  But there's plenty of room for improvement, and she should get a good trip today. 

So, let's take some big shots in here.  Why not! 

$10 exacta on top and underneath the 67 

$3 trifecta 2 w 67 w 13891011
$3 trifecta 67 w 2 w 13891011

$.50 super 2 w 67 w all w 138910 
$.50 super 67 w 2 w all w 138910 

$10 tri 2 w 67 w 67 
$10 tri 67 w 2 w 67 


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