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Frac Daddy ready to emerge in Holy Bull

1/25/2013 3:42 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$40.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

Saturday's 10th race (5:05pm ET) from Gulfstream Park is the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes for 3-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. 

#2 Frac Daddy (8-1) might be the goods for McPeek, who compares the promising Scat Daddy colt to his dam sire, Skip Away. He followed up a clear place finish in his muddy debut at Big Sandy with a romping two turn graduation run under the Twin Spires. He just missed when last seen in the G2 Ky Jockey Club Stakes and is training well for this. He fits the winning profile (8.5f @ GP) as an early-pressing type breaking from one of the three inside posts. 

#6 Dewey Square (12-1) easily won his first two starts in prominent throughout fashion and ended up 3rd from an outer post when last seen in the aforementioned Ky Jockey Club Stakes. Romans always seems to be a player on the Derby trail and this one fired a local bullet Jan 20.  

#4 Bern Identity (4-1) had a busy juvenile campaign (6 starts) and fired Trifecta shots each time. The versatile sort could have captured the productive G3 Delta Jackpot with a different trip and drilled a bullet for this Jan 20.

#1 Shanghai Bobby (4-5) draws the advantageous inside post for his much anticipated sophomore bow. The undefeated colt earned his best two numbers around one turn at Big Sandy and showed distance limitations (slow final 1/4) in a below par renewal of the BC Juvenile. A ground saving tactical trip under regular pilot Napravnik is expected. I'll try to beat the low odds contender.  

#3 Clearly Now (12-1) has the speed to succeed for quality trainer Lynch. He won his first two sprint starts before setting the pace and finishing 3rd in the Display Stakes at Woodbine. Can he handle conventional dirt?

#7 Itsmyluckyday (6-1) earned an inflated number in the GP Derby and will have to prove that effort was for real. He faces tougher two turn rivals today and he was no threat in his lone graded try against Bern Identity in the Delta Jackpot.

The Plays:

$13 to win #2

$1 Trifecta 2-4-6/1-2-4-6/1-2-3-4-6 ($27)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

For daily insight on Santa Anita Park's Pick 6 races, please check out Pick 6blog.com for free selections and tickets.

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Favorite is so overbet that it makes 7 the best overlay on the board, still a hedge to dutch this race or exotic would be the way to do, Only will cover the wager if the big choice runs 2nd.
travel_vic | 1/26/2013 3:54 PM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
the good money to be made is a little West of there in Hot Springs Arkansas
travel_vic | 1/26/2013 3:44 PM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
***Oh BTW, 46 dollars. Forgot to write that down.
rafirox | 1/26/2013 3:37 PM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
@Jarrod/mdracing: When you get a chance, can you please update my "amount cashed" again? I hate to bother you, but for some reason when I change & save it, the amount cashed goes right back to ZERO.
rafirox | 1/26/2013 3:33 PM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
7/2/1 with the 9 (Fredericksburg) adding blinkers as intriguing long shot bet.
yukichan | 1/26/2013 11:11 AM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
7 has the best chance, if left alone, to wire this group
travel_vic | 1/26/2013 9:33 AM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
oops exchange Fredricksberg with the 5, as pace setter probabilities...Bern Identity does not seem to figure at all.
travel_vic | 1/26/2013 9:28 AM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
A solid pace angle that works for OLDER horses is called the Damon Runyon (named as it was discovered in the stakes race of that same name a few years ago at Aqueduct) where a field comes in with just about all having the same totals and the only thing that differentiates the winner, is in its ability to handle late pace. IF, and that is a big IF, the pace today goes down that same path AND, (and this is a biggie), no great things have improved in this group of NOW three year olds, there may be a blanket cavalry charge down the lane late...And of course that always creates a new problem TRAFFIC. That scenario would point to Frac daddy, Shanghai and Clearly Now.

The other pace option, much more relevant to new three year olds, is the speed angle and that has been a dominant factor at GP since the meet began, as it is most years. This one would have 7 Itsmyluckyday and 9 Fredricksberg out winging with Shanghai close by...

Since the big favorite figures to be involved either way, it points to how strong a case one can make for him....STILL. odds tell the tale
travel_vic | 1/26/2013 9:26 AM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
Good pick Jarrod. Had to look long and hard for this one, but in the end came up with the same horse. Contenders before scratches: #1, 7, 6, 2. The favorite #1 is vulnerable due to wrong running style. #7 has good running times and is legitamate. The #6 and #2 look about equal, with the #2 having a slight edge. Bet #2 to win at 8/1 or better. Exacta...2/all. Tri...2/1, 7, 6, 4/all. And hopr the #2 doesn't scratch out or get into trouble. Good luck!!!
cognibene | 1/26/2013 7:55 AM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
EX 1/7, His last #7, was nice, it's not the 2nd quarter time which is false any way, but pulling away in the 3rd with two others and stretch alone that makes me like him - I'll do a 20%reversal saver with 1/2 saver too, never know- also 1/ wt 2/7 wt 2/7-tri, off track no bet-gl all
icyhotboo | 1/26/2013 5:56 AM |  - Re: Frac Daddy ready to emer...
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