Reveron on upswing for GP Derby

12/31/2011 5:57 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$30.00
Amount Cashed:
$114.00

 

Sunday's 10th race (4:45pm ET) from Gulfstream Park is the $100,000 Gulfstream Park Derby for 3-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. 

#2 Reveron (4-1) owns a rising numbers pattern and appears poised to try a route after running 5.5f, 6f, and twice at seven furlongs. All of his works/races at Calder so there is no guarantee he will handle the Gulf. A ground saving tactical trip for profitable low profile connections is anticipated.

     {Check out the top Kentucky Derby 2012 contenders}

#1 King Kid (12-1) captured his Churchill bow and it is not easy to post a debut tally at seven panels. The Romans trainee is bred to route (Lemon Drop Kid-Royal Academy) and could show up on the sod at some point.

#7 Ancient Rome (3-1) fired in all three sprint starts including determined Spectacular Bid tally here Dec 3. The speedy son of Roman Ruler will not offer much value in his first route attempt.

#9 Ravelo's Boy (12-1) finished nicely in local optional claiming route win Dec 3. He will be closing at a price and could sneak into the Trifecta. 

The Plays:

$12 to win #2
.50 cent Trifecta 1-2/7/ALL ($9)
.50 cent Trifecta 1-2/ALL/9 ($9)

analysis by Jarrod Horak


For daily information on Santa Anita Park's Pick 6 races, please check out Pick 6 blog for free selections and tickets.

Happy New Year!



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Thanks everyone. Can never go wrong with 8-1 on a sharp inside early-pressing type going two turns at the Gulf.
mdracing69 | 1/1/2012 5:58 PM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
Great call, Jarrod! Someone mentioned the speed bias, and they are correct, but at this 1 1/16 mile distance, I think it's more of an inside bias. I don't think it's an accident that the top 4 spots were taken up by posts 1 thru 5. Watch for more opportunities like this at GP this winter.
mmidland | 1/1/2012 5:23 PM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
I bombed this one terribly. Well, I did call that Ancient Rome wouldn't be a factor, but that didn't win me any money. Excellent call, Jarrod!
Floridaf | 1/1/2012 4:08 PM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
Thanks, Brian. He drifted up nicely from his 4-1 morning line.
mdracing69 | 1/1/2012 4:04 PM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
Great call, Jarrod!
BrianZipse | 1/1/2012 3:59 PM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
speed bias is in effect
travel_vic | 1/1/2012 3:59 PM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
Beautiful Pick!
US Bombs! | 1/1/2012 3:58 PM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
Strange went through it again and oddly the race came out similarly: the best overall are the 8 and 9, but both a little too late at this distance...the 2 and 11 are the most likely pace horses, but can they have anything left late? One would have to downgrade the 11's run at PRX as that track is an early paradise and does not transfer well to the larger 9 furlong oval. Core of a trifecta are the 7 8 9 11 and go from there.
travel_vic | 1/1/2012 10:50 AM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
Ha that was LAST year's 10th.....will redo it
travel_vic | 1/1/2012 10:44 AM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
Depending on how the track plays, the 2 Pretty Rowdy and 11 Abuelotonio share the ability to take or be near the lead here, BUT there are several improving animals who could take that lead away later and catch them, IF the track is playing fair: 8 Kanati Kid (possibly too far back to make a serious move) and the 9 Trumpet Man. One of the problems that Pretty Rowdy is suggesting, as the pace speeds up that ones finishing power is compromised over the last three runs. The thing that the 9 has going for it is consistency against a strong pace....A difficult one to translate to a wager as no single animal stands out, so I agree that an exotic with these mixed and evolving styles is the way to attack this contest. Even the 5 has shown late running capability that might do that one well as the distances increase, but might be no more than an a place or show move here...3 5 9 to be considered in the top two spots and then several others underneath...depending upon what the odds board suggests.
travel_vic | 1/1/2012 10:36 AM |  - Re: Reveron on upswing for G...
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