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If it's baseball season, your ace must have a Commanding Curve

3/29/2014 3:31 AM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$66.00
Amount Cashed:
$91.95

 

 

LOUISIANA DERBY

Fair Grounds(1 1/8)

Saturday’s 11th race at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, LA, will mark the 100th running of the Louisiana Derby.  Although this is a major prep to the Kentucky Derby, only twice has a horse come from this race, and went on to capture the Kentucky Derby.  But the times, they are a changin’, and this edition will produce a highly-qualified field of ten, that will try and move on to Louisville, KY on the first Saturday in May.  Here is the field:

 

1 – INTENSE HOLIDAY(2-1, Jockey-Mike Smith; Trainer-Todd Pletcher.  Career:  7-2-0-1; $351,900).  Comes into this race off a victory in the Risen Star Stakes, making him the morning line favorite.  He needed the entire length of the race, to get up by a flaring nostril.  After breaking his maiden in his second start, he had competed in five straight Graded races, before making it to the Winner’s Circle.  He should be a major factor in the finish of this race.

2 – KING CYRUS(15-1, Jockey-James Graham; Trainer-Todd Pletcher.  Career:  4-1-1-1, $69,400).  Pletcher also sends out this colt, to complement the favorite.  Hasn’t had much experience, but did win impressively in his first race at Saratoga, by 11 lengths.  This colt is owned by WinStar Farms, so owner-trainer combo is nothing to sneeze at.  Can’t seem to find much else to  say, that would have me  jump on this bandwagon.

3 – LOUIES FLOWER(20-1, Jockey-Miguel Mena; Trainer-Bret Calhoun.  Career:  6-3-1-0, $190,940).  His last race was his first crack at Graded stakes competition, in the Southwest Stakes(Gr. III) at Oaklawn Park .  He was pulled hard, and ended up running dead last.  Looked as though his jockey gave up the chase midway through the race.  Prior to that race, he had run off three consecutive wins at Remington Park.  Maybe he didn’t like Arkansas, or, maybe he’s a one-track wonder?

4 – FLAT GONE(50-1, Jockey-Kent Desormeaux; Trainer-Keith Desormeaux.  Career:  8-1-0-1, $72,120).  Kent Desormeaux picks up this mount for his brother.  Was no threat In his last race, the Risen Star.  Prior to that race, he had just broke his maiden in his seventh try.  Can’t seem to find anything worth writing home about.  Only angle you might play would be the family affair?

5 – GOLD HAWK(12-1, Jockey-Shaun Bridgmohan; Trainer-Steve Asmussen.  Career:  4-2-0-1, $77,200).  Regally-bred colt seems to be having an issue with loading into the gate, having experienced this in the last two races.  If he could overcome this, he might be one to contend with.  But, I don’t think the amount of time since the last race, would make me believe that this problem could be corrected.  Maybe somewhere down the road, this colt will be a good one, but not now.

6 – VICAR’S IN TROUBLE(4-1, Jockey-Rosie Napravnik; Trainer-Michael Maker.  Career:  4-2-0-2, $188,900).  This colt, who is owned by Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey, failed in his last out as the favorite in the Risen Star Stakes, but didn’t shame himself, by finishing third.  Having raced his last three races over this oval, he should be a contender, in trying to make amends.

7 – COMMANDING CURVE(20-1, Jockey-Robby Albarado; Trainer-Dallas Stewart.  Career:  5-1-1-1, $42,434).  After breaking his maiden in his fourth try, at Churchill Downs, he was shipped to Fair Grounds, where he has been stabled for three months.  His work log has produced 12 workouts over this oval since he’s been here.  He ran a troubled sixth in the Risen Star, but all indications from this camp, seem to act as if nothing is amiss.  The trainer is familiar with bringing in longshots, having ran 2nd last year in the Kentucky Derby with 34-1 Golden Soul.  Possibly hoping that their patience may pay off?

8 – RISE UP(10-1, Jockey-Gerard Melancon; Trainer-Thomas Amoss.  Career:  7-4-1-0, $814,633).  Coming into his last race, the Risen Star, Rise Up had won four of his last five(including the Delta Downs Jackpot, Gr. III), but either he did not like the track, or, he was not feeling well, which can’t be determined.  He was rank, and, therefore, ran a nondescript seventh, after sitting behind the pace leader in the early stages of the race.  His wins seem to be against lesser competition, so, expect more of the same, running in the latter half of the pack, against better foes.

9 – IN TROUBLE(4-1, Jockey-Joseph Rocco; Trainer-Anthony Dutrow.  Career:  3-2-0-1, $218,000).  Lightly-raced colt ships in from New York, where he most recently banged heads with Samraat and Uncle Sigh in the Gotham Stakes(Gr. III).  Ran impressively in that one after a six-month absence, leading from the get-go before rellnquishing the lead late.  The question that crosses my mind is, “Why would you ship 1,400 miles when you can stay in NY and run in the Wood Memorial Stakes, and have not worked over the track you are going to run on?”  He could win this one, but, without me.

10 –ALBANO(9-2, Jockey-Kerwin Clark; Trainer-Larry Jones.  Career:  5-2-2-1, $178,100).  This colt led every step of the way, with the exception of the last step, in the Risen Star, losing by a nose.  He also ran second in the other Fair Grounds Derby prep(Lecomte Stakes), finishing a distant 6 ¾ lengths to Vicar’s In Trouble.  Based on his last effort, he should be around for the majority of the race.  If he should be able to shake loose on the lead, he could be tough to handle.

THE PICKS

The main focus will be on #1 Intense Holiday(due to the fact that he won the last race over this track, and this will be his sixth straight race against Graded competition), #6 Vicar’s In Trouble(ran a decent third in race won by top horse, and may have been the victim of the large field?), and my longshot play, #7 Commanding Curve.  We’ll throw in #9 In Trouble and #10 Albano on the bottom side of the exotics.  50 cent Trifecta:  1-6-7/1-6-7-9-10/1-6-7-9-10($18); $3 Exacta Box:  1-6-7($18); and $10 WPS on 7.  Total Bet - $66.

Just goes to show you, that you can be almost all over it, and gain very little. Hit the Exacta, Trifecta, and Show bet. Only missed the Win and Place bets. Looks like Taco Bell tonight. Woo hoo!!!!!
ruffian75 | 3/29/2014 7:06 PM |  - Re: If it's baseball season,...

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