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Commanding Intense In Trouble

2/22/2014 9:10 AM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$60.00
Amount Cashed:
$128.35

 

 

RISEN STAR STAKES

Fair Grounds, 1 1/16

#1 – Albano(12-1, Jockey-Kerwin Clark; Trainer-Larry Jones; Career-4-2-1-1, $98,100) Colt has had three preps over this track, and has retained the services of Clark.  Began his career with a second at Churchill.  Larry Jones is familiar with this race, having won it with Friesan Fire in 2009.  Was a distant runner-up in the Lecomte Stakes.  Never been off the board.  Consistent; local flavor.  Would not surprise.

#2 – Rise Up(4-1, Jockey-Gerard Melancon; Trainer-Thomas Amoss; Career-6-4-1-0, $810,633) Makes his 2014 debut after having won the Delta Jackpot(Gr. III) on November 30.  Is well-traveled, marking the fifth track visited, and keeps Melancon for this race.  Only disappointment was a sixth place finish in the Iroquois Stakes(Gr. III) at Churchill.  Consistent with four wins, with average margin of victory being 5 ½ lengths.  Would not be far-fetched to say that this one could bring home the bacon.

#3 – Flat Gone(30-1, Jockey-Chris Landeros; Trainer-Keith Desormeaux; Career-7-1-0-1, $ 68,120) Finally broke his maiden in last outing.  Had been beaten twice by Rise Up at Delta Downs.  Would have to pass.

#4 – Vigorish(50-1, Jockey-Marcelino Pedroza; Trainer-D. Wayne Lukas; Career-6-0-2-0; $32,085) English Channel colt has yet to break his maiden.  Lukas has been known to surprise, as recently as last year with Oxbow and Will Take Charge.  Still, this blood line would indicate that turf should be this one’s direction.  I’ll look elsewhere.

#5 – Bond Holder *********SCRATCHED************

#6 – Gold Hawk(8-1, Jockey-Corey Nakatani; Trainer-Steve Asmussen; Career-3-2-0-1; $69,200) Suffered his first defeat in last race, as the favorite in the Lecomte Stakes(Gr. III).  Pre-race problems of loading into the gate, might’ve indicated his lack of desire for running that day.  His dam won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2000, and his sire won the 2003 Belmont Stakes.  Trying a new jockey, and Asmussen has familiarity with this race, having won in 2008 with Pyro.  Lot of upside for this one.

#7 – Interchange(30-1, Jockey-E.T. Baird; Trainer-Thomas Clark; Career-3-1-1-0; $34,030) Though he won his first two races at Delaware Park, he was disqualified in his second win.  After that, he traveled west to Fair Grounds, where he pulled up the rear in his last effort, an optional claiming event.  He can only improve from that.  He might be more prepared this time around, but, I’ll tend to look elsewhere.

#8 – Hoppertunity(8-1, Jockey-Martin Garcia; Trainer-Bob Baffert; Career-2-1-0-0; $34,720)  Successful jockey/trainer combo, also has a little bond between trainer and part-owner, Michael Pegram(combo won the Kentucky Derby with Real Quiet).  Just broke his maiden in last out, his second visit to the track.  Should get some betting interest because of connections, but would seem to be hard to read, due to greenness.

#9 – Intense Holiday(8-1, Jockey-Mike Smith; Trainer-Todd Pletcher; Career-6-1-0-1, $111,900)  What would a graded-stakes race be, without Pletcher.  Picks up the services of Hall-Of-Famer Mike Smith.  Broke his maiden in only his second outing, and has been somewhat in contention in his last four outings against graded competition.  Maybe he’s found a field that might be more to his liking?

#10 – Son Of A Preacher(20-1, Jockey-Miguel Mena; Trainer-Bret Calhoun; Career-4-1-1-0, $37,549)  Local trainer has experimented with this one, trying the turf, and last race shipped to Oaklawn, to run fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes.  Won his maiden at first asking, beating Albano at six furlongs at Churchill.  Has never been that far back, but seem to think he’s a tier below this group.

#11 – Quick Indian(20-1, Jockey-Brian Hernandez, Jr.; Trainer-Merrill Scherer; Career-4-2-0-1, $54,750)) Won his first official race last time out over this oval in open claiming competition(broke his maiden prior race, due to disqualification).  Post position shouldn’t be drawback, since he likes to go wide in previous races.  Still, without me.

#12 – Xtra Luck(50-1, Jockey-Richard Eramia; Trainer-Danny Pish; Career-4-1-0-2, $32,910) Local charge is really dipping his big toe in deep water.  Seems to be over his head.  Without.

#13 – Commanding Curve(20-1, Jockey-Robby Albarado; Trainer-Dallas Stewart; Career-4-1-1-1, $38,434)  Broke his maiden his last out on November 30 at Churchill Downs.  Been working at Fair Grounds since December 20, and has recorded two bullet works his last two workouts.  Picks up the services of accomplished jockey, Albarado.  If works are any indications, he looks to be prepared for his New Orleans debut.

#14 – Vicar’s In Trouble(5-2, Jockey-Rosie Napravnik; Trainer-Michael Maker; Career-3-2-0-1, $148,900)  Impressive Lecomte winner, pulling away by 6 ¾ lengths, though the trackman stated that he was “green”.  2-for-2 at Fair Grounds.  Not much not to like.  Seems worthy of the favorite’s role.

#15 – Emmett Park(20-1, Jockey-James Graham; Trainer-Robert Pincins; Career-2-2-0-0, $27,300)  Comes to Fair Grounds off of two wins over synthetic at Turfway Park.  Has been working over this oval since February 4.  I can’t jump on bandwagon, though, for I tend to shy away from synthetic-to-dirt.

 

PICKS

 

Though he’s breaking from the outside, the track variance for distance races at Fair Grounds is favorable.  I like #14 Vicar’s In Trouble, with #9 Intense Holiday(last four races against graded competition should make for good preparation for this contest) & #13 Commanding Curve(like the two recent bullets, and the fact he’s been stabled at this track for two months).  Play those three in a $5 exacta box($30 total), and play a 50 cent Trifecta part-wheel, with those three horses in the top two slots, with 1-2-6-8-9-13-14 in the third slot($15),followed by the top three in the first and third slot, with 1-2-6-8-9-13-14 in the middle slot($15), for a grand total of $60. 

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Older Comments about Commanding Intense In Trouble...

Nice pick, EP. Looks like many on HRN did well today.
Looked over the notes, and thought a shout-out to EP Taylor was deserving. Nice pick!!
Hey, Ruff. Great to hear from you. I've been doing great lately, thanks for asking. Did good today, but lost like $300 on Friday, but I'll take it :D. Hope you've been handicapping as well as when you hit Princess of Sylmar in the KY Oaks ;). Have a good one. Keep writing these phenomenal POTD's :D. Take care, talk to you soon.
Hey, rafi!!!! Good to hear you had good fortune today. As for where I've been, I don't share in the conversations. Just like to pick them. Thanks for asking, though. Hope you're doing well.
Had a great day @ the track too, Ruffian. Was @ GP w/ Shug and co. Made plenty of money. Where have you been Ruff75?
Nice handicappin', "Ruffian75" ;).
Doesn't accomplish a damn thing, but it's kinda' neat that all the horses I used in my Trifecta bets, occupied the top seven in order of finish. Too bad they don't have a penny Super Seven. Even at that, to box all seven, would be $50.40(5040 combinations). Oh well, all I'll say is that I pegged the top seven, with no consolation.
Whoo hoo!!!!!!! No Taco Bell tonight!!!!! We're splurging for a Big Mac attack!!!!!!! It won't be long, and we'll be Red Lobster bound!!!!!!
I used the 14 in the contest, even with that outside post. Also the Jackpot speed, even though he hasn't beaten all that tough of competition. Also the Baffert newbie.
I like Intense holiday to win
so updated: 14 Vicar's in Trouble 13 Commanding Curve 2 Rise Up 8 Hoppertunity 9 Intense Holiday
Bond Holder scratched couple days ago...
contenders in a big bulky field, the size of which often creates LUCKY illogical outcomes: 4 Vicar's in Trouble 13 Commanding Curve 2 Rise Up 5 Bond Holder 8 Hoppertunity