Too often, we handicap a day's card and then feel tempted to bet most if not all those races, especially if you are primarily a weekend player. Action seems to rule over profit. If you don't get out much, I with you on the action front, but if you don't have a solid conviction really pull your wager back. In this FG race, we have a tough handicapping event that appears to be a chaos race capable of producing huge payoffs in the exotics pools. It's a full field of maidens set to run on the turf. Favorites appear vulnerable and many are returning off long layoffs. I honestly can't pick the winner with any conviction. #6 Stand (4-1) and #8 Where U At (7-2) seem logical, but I have a very strong conviction around two of the longest shots and their likelihood of hitting the board. The Fair Grounds turf is not kind to speed so closers have a great shot of hitting any slot on the board and sometimes at gargantuan odds...especially in these Maiden turf affairs. Take a look at #2 Spiderman Ridge (30-1+) His last two were absolutely horrible and if you look at his record, he wants nothing to do with a dirt surface especially when it comes up damp (breeding supports this) While they weren't eye popping his two tries on turf were decent but most importantly he showed a nice kick at the end of both races on a turf course more kind to speed than the FG's surface. A third or fourth place finish is not out of the question especially at the monster price he is sure to draw. #9 Pyramid Indy (20-1+) will also run better than his odds today. Had no chance in his debut at CD on the dirt when he broke dead last. His next start was at FG on Dec 7th in a slop race taken off the turf. Once again he broke slow, steadied and had no chance getting trounced. This $1.2 million colt will never generate a positive return for his owners but he does deserve another shot on the turf surface he was bred for. The move to Theriot should help get him out of the gate in decent shape. While, trainer Neil Howard may have lost a step or two he still sports a nice 40% in-the- money stat for first time turf horses.
Our betting strategy will be to single 2 and 9 in the third hole of a Trifecta and the 4th hole of the Superfecta and do so with plenty of conviction.
The Bet (ONLY IF ON TURF)
$1 Trifecta 1,4,6,8,10 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10,12 with 2,9 (Total $70)
$.50 Superfecta 6,8 with 1,4,6,8,10 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10,12 with 2,9 (Total $48)