Ticker
  • Long On Value (7-2) cuts back and rolls in the Lucky Coin Stakes.Posted 8 hours ago
  • Songbird repels the challenge of Carina Mia, and romps home in the CCA Oaks.Posted 1 day ago
  • Up With the Birds swings to victory in Woodbine's Nijinsky Stakes.Posted 1 day ago
  • Tin Type Gal rides the rail to victory in Monmouth's Boiling Springs.Posted 1 day ago
  • California Chrome edges Dortmund in a San Diego Handicap showdown.Posted 2 days ago
  • Mokat (7-1) turns the San Clemente into a one-filly show.Posted 2 days ago
  • Dacita just gets up in the Grade 1 Diana in a four-horse photo.Posted 2 days ago
  • Front Pocket Money grinds to victory in the Grade 3 Jersey Shore.Posted 2 days ago
  • Hit It Once More romps home a big winner of the New York Derby.Posted 2 days ago
  • Bitumen (4-5) powers home to win the Grade 3 Sanford at Saratoga.Posted 2 days ago

Zuzu Petals is a Solid Favorite at Del Mar

7/31/2013 10:38 PM
Track:
Author:
Amount Bet:
$72.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

 

Del Mar's 2nd race includes six fillies dashing six furlongs on the main track. I don't bet Del Mar very often, but I have improved lately. I didn't like any races for tomorrow, but since I wanted to write a Play of the Day, I decided to give the Del Mar main track a whack.

Unfortunately, #6 Zuzu Petals (9-5) will be the second favorite to be picked in my last three Play of the Days.  However, she could be an overlay relative to this field. She is as consistent as they come, her figures are always solid, her race pars are always similar, and she runs her race every time (3 for 3 lifetime Exacta shot). In a field short on speed, expect her to have a somewhat easy time on the front end. The jockey likes giving her advantages at around the second call, but today (sporting her consistent 93,92,91, etc E1 pars) he might send her out early. Knowing Del Mar main track races at this distance sport a 52% wire percentage and a 83% speed bias, she fits the track profile and assuming she stays 6/5 or better could be considered an overlay. #5 Lets Get Frisky (5-2) came a nose away from defeating my favorite last out. She is 3 for 3 in the money over tracks and a consistent performer. The best jockey in California, Rafael B, will hop on board. She figures to be stalking, close to the pace. If she can improve a little bit or the favorite would be a tad off her normal effort, look for this one to come swooping in with a late quality kick. #1 Midnight Lady (3-1) has enough class to get it done. She comes to the main track once again and figures to press the pace up front. Edwin Malondado and John Sadler, both quality in their profession, team up here for a possible shot against the favorite. #2 Comin' Easy (6-1) might be a wild card for Julien L. and Jerry Hollendorfer, switching from turf/dirt, a angle that has been applied and cashed in on very frequently for me lately.

 Plays, in a pitifully small field:

 $20 Win, $40 Place on #6 Zuzu Petals

  $2 Exacta: 1-2-5/6

  $2 Exacta: 6/1-2-5

.... Betting in advance can be difficult, without the knowledge of odds, but I am betting this in advance, and personally hope the favorite will stay at 1-1 or higher. It is quite possible, unfortunately, that she will end up being 4-5 or 3-5. This is my only PLANNED wager for the day. I was not planning on wagering today, but I wanted to write a Play of the Day, so I chose a race I'm confident in, even though it is a bad betting race. Good luck to all!

 

 Analysis by Ed/Rafirox

comments powered by Disqus

Older Comments about Zuzu Petals is a Solid Favorite at Del Mar...

I'm horrible at non winner races but Mikey T is my pick.
Can't pay heavenly bills with those 4 :)
Strong wind found hiis new surface
Because you suck? ;).
This is why I never BET Del Mar's putting greens
No, travel_vic, I wrote THAT listed ROI was on PLAY OF THE DAYS only, since those are posted beforehand.
4th possibles 6 Unusual Heatwave 4 Brutally Handsome 8 Cast a Doubt 3 Wild Media Seems like an Eagle fan was here
what?
and OF COURSE there have not been any other bets in that same time period...
next race I like Whatsallthedrama ;)
Oh well, came in third. Thus far in three play of the days: $242 Bet, $282 Cashed ($40 profit) and an ROI of 1.17... This is through 3 play of the days, hitting 2 of 3. Hope for better luck next time. I should have one up for tomorrow, but I probably won't on Whitney Day (8/3)
#6 sitting at 1-1..... has VERY nice Place pool.
*****NOTE: #2 has scratched, THEREFORE, instead of the exactas being 1-2-5/6 and 6/1-2-5, it is not 1-5/6 and 6/5-1. Instead of each being worth $6, they are each worth $4.... THEREFORE, it costs $8 rather than $12 overall... THEREFORE, the overall wager is $68 bet, NOT $72. #6 currently at 1-1, which isn't so bad, as I expected that. Only a 5 horse field. Good luck to all.
What's your overall ROI Vic? What's your overall PCT in cashing bets?
@Laz, that is an ROI affected by ONLY my past two Play of the Days. My actual ROI, over the entire course of the season (good and bad streaks), is 1.43.In other words, every $100 I bet, I have made $143 in return. Hopefully, my recent Play of the Day success continues into today. Both races being incorporated into that given ROI were posted BEFOREHAND with only some scratches and a miscalculation, which I acknowledged in my comment section. All of my previous Play of the Days are on my profile, where you can clearly see my picks were posted beforehand.
This individual is a better player than F.R.???
HOG WASH
My plays are posted BEFOREHAND, both of them, and both of them made a profit ($30.40 and $76). You can see them for yourself I posted them both yesterday. Keep in mind, there were scratches and some races I miscalculated, so please read the comments to get an accurate amount bet/amount cashed balance. Unlike you, I post my picks beforehand. Please, just stop posting on any of my threads and don't respond to my posts. You and others USED TO (besides you, who keeps chirping) that I didn't post beforehand. I have made an effort to post EXACT PLAYS beforehand with little changing (good or bad). Both of my picks yesterday were posted BEFOREHAND and they both hit. When Jarrod hits a race and tells a profit of ____, you don't call him a fraud. I don't see how you can accuse me of lying, when the evidence (that I hit the race) is represented in my analysis over Play of the Day. That ROI I posted is NOT my overall ROI, it is my ROI on the PAST PLAY OF THE DAYS, which were BOTH posted beforehand. I can't blame people for accusing me of lying posting AFTER the fact, or at least question. That makes sense. BUT, all of my doubters BUT you give me credit WHEN I post beforehand and hit the race, WHICH I have been doing. In fact, lately I have not been chirping about my WINNINGS OR my LOSINGS. I have been on a TEAR at Gulfstream, but I've been killed on other tracks, and I have not posted. Please, give me a fair chance without prior feelings towards my post. I give you every right to question/accuse when I post after the fact, but since I am making an effort to make peace with you (posting only beforehand), I would appreciate it if you did the same. If I nailed a race posted beforehand, don't even congratulate me, you don't have to, just don't accuse me when I CLEARLY posted my picks... Fair enough? Otherwise, I have attempted everything. I am doing EVERYTHING you have requested (only before the fact, and NOT chirp about other winnings), yet you STILL accuse me. Can you at least try to be fair and acknowledge when I clearly posted correct picks, which I have been doing the past couple days? THanks in advance.
Rafi I love your ROI. But can you please make an effort to get it above 2?
Just think Vic, now you've finally met THE ONE.