Go with Experience In Delware 2 Year-Old MSW

7/18/2010 12:43 PM
Track:
Author:
Amount Bet:
$60.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

POST TIME 3:57 PM EDT -- A full field of ten 2 year-olds go 5.5 furlongs on the dirt featuring 9 first time starters.  I'm sticking with the "experienced" colt here and will make #8 Thanks To Ron (3-1) my top pick.  Ran well enough in his debut here sent off at 9-2 odds.  Has the connections and breeding to suggest that he will move up off that good first start.  Trainer Margolis is deadly with 2 year-olds making their second career start and jock Brian Hernandez has a patient way about him that is well suited to mentoring the babies.

Many of the first timers in this race will need a couple of races and will eventually be pointed to longer distances and perhaps, for a few, starts on the turf.  Thanks To Ron is ready to win now.

I do like the long shot #5 Night Officer (20-1) a bit as an in-the-money bomber.  Connections don't hit often with debut types and the works are anemic but sire produces early winners and this one is well suited to the distance.  #3 Orale Vato (5-1) looks to be the better of the two Pletcher entrants and deserves to be included.  #2 Keep On Going (6-1) is the better half of the coupling posting impressive works and breeding suggests he is ready to win now.

THE WAGER:

$15 Exacta 8 with 2,3,5

$5 Exacta 2,3,5 with 8

Pletcher sends out Jara to ride the ML favorite here CONGO and it is not on the ticket after working well at Saratoga? Well at least a payout WITHOUT that one would be higher.
humphrey | 7/19/2010 2:52 PM |  - Re: Go with Experience In De...
I worked the gate for two years and there is ONE thing for sure, you NEVER know a thing about babies until they are in a real race. You can train them behind stablemates to have dirt kicked in their faces, have them inside or outside work mates in the AM, but NOTHING is the same as a race. I cannot count the number of times a slow working baby outran the entire group or a bullet working animal was either left at the gate or shied from the dirt in its face not to mention the crowd noise,

When there is so little of real racing experience to go on, these are very very risky bets. Get a field with 60% starters and you have a shot. A more logical way to bet these is to ride the coat-tails of the experience in all positions of a tri with a healthy does of the ALL button and hope your main choice runs third behind some unknown babies.
humphrey | 7/19/2010 11:40 AM |  - Re: Go with Experience In De...
I always enjoy reading your analysis. Good luck with your selections!
mdracing69 | 7/18/2010 9:05 PM |  - Re: Go with Experience In De...

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