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The $1M Bullring Bonanza

11/22/2013 10:09 PM
Track:
Author:
Amount Bet:
$45.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

DELTA DOWNS JACKPOT

 

Saturday marks the 12th running of the Delta Downs Jackpot(Gr. III, $1 million), a race for two-year olds going the distance of a mile and a sixteenth around a six furlong oval.  The small size of this oval has many calling it a “bull ring”.  The diminutive size seems to favor front runners, with two previous winners going on to Breeders’ Cup fame:  Big Drama in the 2010 Sprint and Goldencents in this year’s Dirt Mile.  It will be an early point in a lot of these horses’ careers, so, let’s see if we can make sense of some of the entrants.  Here’s the field:

1 -           WHYRUAWESOME(10-1, Jockey – Eddie Martin; Trainer- Anne Smith.  Sire- Whywhywhy; Broodmare Sire- Awesome Again.  Career:  4-1-1-0, $54,315).  This gelding will make his first attempt on dirt.  Nothing in his previous races indicate that he has the ability to step up to graded competition.

2 -           COASTLINE(5-2, Jockey – Shaun Bridgmohan; Trainer- Mark Casse.  Sire- Speightstown; Broodmare Sire- El Amante.  Career:  3-2-1-0, $80,779).  Has been assigned the favorite’s role off of a two-race winning streak.  His last effort was at Churchill Downs, and he makes his two-turn debut.

3 -           ROMAN UNBRIDLED(30-1, Jockey – Kevin Smith; Trainer – Chad Cook.  Sire- Roman Ruler; Broodmare Sire- Unbridled’s Song.  Career:  5-1-0-1, $31,225).  Finished a distant fourth over this oval in a Jackpot prep race.  Trainer has a decent 5-for-18 record at this meet. The race before that was also at this track, breaking his maiden in a 7 ½ furlong race.  Nothing shows that this could be his coming-out party.

4 -           MIGHTY BROWN(12-1, Jockey – Miguel Mena; Trainer – Tim Ice.  Sire-Big Brown; Broodmare Sire- Chester House.  Career:  6-0-4-1, $76,590).  Colt still looking for his first win.  Was near the lead for most of the previous race in the Jean Lafitte(same prep race as previous horse), before giving up 5 ½ lengths to eventual winner, and finishing second.  Looks like a gimmick on the underside of exotics.

5 -           RUM POINT(5-1, Jockey – Mario Gutierrez; Trainer  - Doug O’Neill.  Sire-Malibu Moon; Broodmare Sire- Quiet American.  Career:  5-1-0-1, $71,490).  Though he was in the BC Juvenile, he finished second-to-last.  Might have aspirations for a great future, but his early form only shows that he’s reaching for the stars.

6 -           FLAT GONE(20-1, Jockey – Diego Saenz; Trainer – Keith Desormeaux.  Sire- Flatter; Broodmare Sire – Kayrawan.  Career:  4-0-0-1, $31,000).  Colt comes in trying to break his maiden.  Ran 3rd in the Jean Lafitte, beaten 13 ½ lengths, but was never in contention.  I might be able to bet this one, with your money.

7 -           RANKHASPRIVILEGES(15-1, Jockey – Robby Albarado; Trainer – Ken McPeek.  Sire – Einstein; Broodmare Sire – Mr. Prospector.  Career:  1-1-0-0, $33,600).  Won his debut at Keeneland, on Polytrack.  Receives 1st-time Lasix.  Might be nice for exotics, based on medication and odds.

8 -           CASIGUAPO(4-1, Jockey – Luis Saez; Trainer – Mario Morales.  Sire – Sightseeing; Broodmare Sire – Buddha.  Career:  4-1-1-1, $107,250).  Broke his maiden three races back at Calder, and then moved to New York where he ran in Grade I competition.  Ran 2nd by 9 ½ lengths to Strong Mandate in the mud in the Hopeful Stakes.  Recently had a bullet work.  Graduates to two-turn races on this occasion.  Will probably get a lot of backing at the windows.

9 -           BIG BAZINGA(12-1, Jockey – Rosie Napravnik; Trainer – Katerina Vassilieva.  Sire – Bluegrass Cat; Broodmare Sire – Maria’s Mon.  Career:  2-1-1-0, $61,347).  Will make his debut on dirt after having experienced the synthetic at Woodbine.  In 3rd race, he has encountered a new trainer each time(Vassilieva trained him first, then was given to another trainer, presumably while serving suspension?).  Napravnik picks up mount.  She had ridden the 2nd favorite(Rise Up) two of the last 3 races.  Maybe she likes something about this one?

10 -         RISE UP(3-1, Jockey – Gerard Melancon; Trainer – Thomas Amoss.  Sire – Rockport Harbor; Broodmare Sire – Johannesburg.  Career:  5-3-1-0, $210,633).          Won going away in his debut race at Delta, winning the Jean Lafitte by 6 ½ lengths.  He seems to be coming into this race ready to fire, having recorded a bullet work.  Hard to dismiss.

THE PICKS

Though he’s not broke his maiden in six tries, and add the fact that most of his prep races up to this point have been on the turf, we’ll throw some action #4 Mighty Brown’s way.  We’ll also look at #7 Rankhasprivileges, due to  the application of Lasix for the first time, after breaking his maiden at first asking.  Throw in Robby Albarado, and I’ll figure that he has some familiarity with this oval.  Lastly, #10 Rise Up, cannot be excluded.

We’ll throw in #2 Coastline on the underside, with #5 Rum Point, #8 Casiguapo, & #9 Big Bazinga.  Our main objective is to shoot for the longshots.

THE BET

We’ll take a page from Jasen Mangrum, who writes this week on HRN(“Trifecta Betting Strategies”), on how to play the Trifecta.  The bet is 50 cent Trifecta part-wheel: 

4-7-10/4-7-10/2-4-5-7-8-9-10($15) with  

4-7-10/2-4-5-7-8-9-10/4-7-10($15) with

2-4-5-7-8-9-10/4-7-10/4-7-10($15)

Total bet:  $45

 

See ya’ in The Winner’s Circle

A profit is a profit, Ruffian75. Nice job ;).
rafirox | 11/24/2013 7:31 AM |  - Re: The $1M Bullring Bonanza
CORRECTION: Payoff was $58.40 for 50 cent payoff. Profit meager $13.40, but profit, nonetheless.
ruffian75 | 11/24/2013 7:24 AM |  - Re: The $1M Bullring Bonanza
Well, Jasen, sorry I let you down. I tried your Trifecta theory, and managed to make it work. Only problem was, only a $29.20 return for $45 bet. The #7 was bet down from 15-1 to 7-2, rising ever so slightly to 6-1. Guess I didn't foresee that. Oh well, the next best thing to winning???? Getting a casher. At least some of your losses are absorbed. Wait til next week. A little bit of Bourbon, and I'll get some Courage, for the Clark Handicap!!!!!
ruffian75 | 11/23/2013 4:42 PM |  - Re: The $1M Bullring Bonanza

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