Flat Out(Bomb) in the exotics

6/18/2011 3:10 AM

Track:

Churchill Downs

Race:

6/18/2011 - Race 12

Author:

ruffian75

Amount Bet:

$280.00

Amount Cashed:

$0.00

Flat Out was on the Derby trail 2 years ago, but after the Ark Derby, went on the shelf for a year and a half. Came back in Dec, and won. Laid off another 5 months, then ran a closing second in the Grade 3 Lone Star Hdcp to Awesome Gem, beating Baffert's Game On Dude on May 30. Now in a Grade 1, they have carefully brought him along. 1st time he's come back in 3 weeks. I think they're ready for the big time. The play is: Giant Oak($20W; $40P; $80S); $4 Exacta Box(Flat Out; Crown Of Thorns; Apart; Equestrio; and Giant Oak). $1 Trifecta Box, using the same horses used in the Exacta Box.

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I'm with you Michael. I was all they way. I predicted him as a bomb, and you accurately predicted his future of fortune. I'm glad we had the interaction, for you convinced me, more than the confidence I had before, that this was the right time. Thanks for your input, & I believe this horse will have more to say, before the time is out.

ruffian75 | 7/4/2011 2:58 PM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

I'm the "genuine" believer in Flat Out. I've been predicting his success for weeks, if you read this entire thread.

MichaelPavelick | 7/4/2011 1:24 PM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

Michael, I'm looking forward to reading more that you have to say about this.......thanks for all the information!

jc1959 | 7/4/2011 11:13 AM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

Thanks JC1959. The Woodward is a grade one, and thats a possibility. I lean toward the idea the connections want Flat Out going long with a big late kick in a grass race. So only time will tell if his training is pointing toward the Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf (GI)

MichaelPavelick | 7/3/2011 9:47 AM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

Great handicapping Michael. Keeps us up to date on how Flat Out is training? This was a great longshot prediction.

JC1959 | 7/3/2011 9:18 AM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

Split times from the chart: 23.07-23.63-24.00-11.99 Track record for mile & 1/8th is 1:45.40 by Secretariat. I think the final time is most impressive. Splits are nothing to brag about. If Flat Out continues to train on grass (CD), and workouts are shorter in distance, then you can figure his race in late Aug. or early Sept. is just a prep to set him up for a big run on the grass at CD for the breeders cup race.

MichaelPavelick | 7/3/2011 4:16 AM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

epavelick? I see some bias here!!!(ha!!!) Looks like another on the Michael bandwagon. Michael, here's the fractions for Flat Out's race: 24:46; 47:54; 1:11.10; 1:46.64. With the exception of the first quarter, he was under 12 seconds per furlong from there on out. Nice run, and, once again, nice analysis.

ruffian75 | 7/3/2011 3:44 AM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

Thank you epavelick.

MichaelPavelick | 7/3/2011 3:36 AM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

Enjoy reading MichaelPavelick's posts. He seems to know alot about horses/trainers/conditions.

epavelick | 7/3/2011 3:29 AM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

Notice the final comment coming from Dickey regarding the Breeders Cup. Depending on how Flat Out is trained for his races in late Auig. or early fall, its possible you might be better off waiting for him in the Breeder's Cup races. Brian Zipse said Flat Out earned a 113 Beyer speed rating in his last victory. If he's prepared or pampered for a BC race going long on the grass at CD, then he will be extremely dangerous.

MichaelPavelick | 7/3/2011 3:11 AM | - Re: Flat Out(Bomb) in the ex...

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