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Flat Out(Bomb) in the exotics

6/18/2011 3:10 AM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$280.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

Flat Out was on the Derby trail 2 years ago, but after the Ark Derby, went on the shelf for a year and a half.  Came back in Dec, and won.  Laid off another 5 months, then ran a closing second in the Grade 3 Lone Star Hdcp to Awesome Gem, beating Baffert's Game On Dude on May 30.  Now in a Grade 1, they have carefully brought him along.  1st time he's come back in 3 weeks.  I think they're ready for the big time.  The play is:  Giant Oak($20W; $40P; $80S); $4 Exacta Box(Flat Out; Crown Of Thorns; Apart; Equestrio; and Giant Oak).  $1 Trifecta Box, using the same horses used in the Exacta Box.
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Older Comments about Flat Out(Bomb) in the exotics...

I'm with you Michael. I was all they way. I predicted him as a bomb, and you accurately predicted his future of fortune. I'm glad we had the interaction, for you convinced me, more than the confidence I had before, that this was the right time. Thanks for your input, & I believe this horse will have more to say, before the time is out.
I'm the "genuine" believer in Flat Out. I've been predicting his success for weeks, if you read this entire thread.
Michael, I'm looking forward to reading more that you have to say about this.......thanks for all the information!
Thanks JC1959. The Woodward is a grade one, and thats a possibility. I lean toward the idea the connections want Flat Out going long with a big late kick in a grass race. So only time will tell if his training is pointing toward the Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf (GI)
Great handicapping Michael. Keeps us up to date on how Flat Out is training? This was a great longshot prediction.
Split times from the chart: 23.07-23.63-24.00-11.99 Track record for mile & 1/8th is 1:45.40 by Secretariat. I think the final time is most impressive. Splits are nothing to brag about. If Flat Out continues to train on grass (CD), and workouts are shorter in distance, then you can figure his race in late Aug. or early Sept. is just a prep to set him up for a big run on the grass at CD for the breeders cup race.
epavelick? I see some bias here!!!(ha!!!) Looks like another on the Michael bandwagon. Michael, here's the fractions for Flat Out's race: 24:46; 47:54; 1:11.10; 1:46.64. With the exception of the first quarter, he was under 12 seconds per furlong from there on out. Nice run, and, once again, nice analysis.
Thank you epavelick.
Enjoy reading MichaelPavelick's posts. He seems to know alot about horses/trainers/conditions.
Notice the final comment coming from Dickey regarding the Breeders Cup. Depending on how Flat Out is trained for his races in late Auig. or early fall, its possible you might be better off waiting for him in the Breeder's Cup races. Brian Zipse said Flat Out earned a 113 Beyer speed rating in his last victory. If he's prepared or pampered for a BC race going long on the grass at CD, then he will be extremely dangerous.
Charles Dickey made this quote about the future racing for Flat Out: "Having run him twice in two weeks, Dickey said he would likely give Flat Out a little break and consider races such as the Iselin at Monmouth Park on Aug 20 or the Woodward at Saratoga on Sept. 3 for the horse's next start. "Our goal is to try and make the Breeders' Cup this fall," Dickey said."
I've said this before, I need to figure out a easy way to proof read my posts. I find it difficult in this type of thread. Sorry for my typos.
Flat Out has been in my "virtual stable" ever since the Southwest 2 years ago. I have dozens & dozens of horses I get regular notifications on from virtual stable all the time. Plus I enjoy the follwoing the big race, like every member here. I would LOVE to start following Del Mar & Saratoga full time in the days ahead
Hey, Micahel, I love your input. I want to party with you. I love uour interaction, & I hope you hit it at the wire. Let's go to the next wire, buddy. You're the best.
This horse (Flat Out) could win a BC grass after this great looking victory. His Blaze is awesome also!: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igz-MgEXdLY
Well I was slightly tepid with my view of having 3 races in about 33 days, but in the END my FINAL analogy was totally correct. Flat Out made a sweeping move, and soundly defeated this field as the LONGEST odds in the race. 13.60-1 odds winning by 6 1/2 lengths. Love this game and this website!
I'm starting to basically lean toward the view that Flat Out is extremely sharp. I think the Trainer & Jockey will just "breeze" the horse for at LEAST half of the race, and come with a HUGE kick at the END of the race. Making 2 moves on 5-30-11 will allow the horse to make a BIG sweeping move at the end of the race. His grass workout on 6-28-11 is also a indication that he wants Flat Out making VERY late moves in grade 1 races going LONG on the GRASS. Maybe the BC Marathon on the grass at CD?
Well sometime even in a "breezing" workout the connections can pick up a check by finsihing 4th or 5th for an example. Trainers LOVE to have their horses to race against the proper level of competition. Along with that racing secretary BADLY needs horses to FILL the race. So it benefits the both parties that the trainer enters the race even though he plans on "breezing" the horse in the race. Keeping the racing secretary happy is the way you secure stall space at that race track, if you decide to bring a stable of horses to that race track in the future.
Well sometime even in a "breezing" workout the connections can pick up a check by finsihing 4th or 5th for an example. Trainers LOVE to have their horses to race against the proper level of competition. Along with that racing secretary BADLY needs horses to FILL the race. So it benefits the both parties that the trainer enters the race even though he plans on "breezing" the horse in the race. Keeping the racing secretary happy is the way you secure stall space at that race track, if you decide to bring a stable of horses to that race track in the future.
I follow your train of thought, but if this was a "breezing workout", it seems very peculiar that his travel itinerary has been Texas, Kentucky, and now New York, all in 32 days. I heard Jeff Siegel on HRTV give his pick as being Rodman, but, when he closed out his explanation, he said, "He should beat Flat Out". Never mentioned him prior to his closing statement. Struck me as odd.