Horses Without a Shot
You can just about write these horses out just because they don't have the speed or their post position is just killer to their style- #1 Daddy Long Legs, #2 Optimizer, #7 Rousing Sermon, #17 Done talking, #18 Sabercat, #20 Liaison, and #21 AE My Adonis.
Pace setters that'll burn out
#11 Alpha - really good horse but the extra 1/8 of a mile will get to him
#14 Hansen - He's a wire-to-wire horse, but has been breezed by on the final stretch twice already and this race looks like the pace is going to be REALLY HOT- not to his advantage
#15 Gemologist - yes the UNDEFEATED Gemologist... but also the "speed like no other out of the gate" Gemologist. I don't think he went against very tough competition prepping and barely hung on in the Wood Memorial.
Strong Contenders That'll Just Miss
#3 Take Charge Indy - Only came on strong of late and has Calvin "Bo-RAIL" on him, only successful though when clear of traffic- hard to avoid traffic out of PP3
#4 Union Rags - In a smaller field he probably wins, however his pace might be too slow and he may be boxed in to where he can't make a strong close
#9 Trinniberg - Has only ran 7f races against weaker competition, this won't be as easy and pace will be too hot.
#10 Daddy Nose Best - I think his jockey did too as he doesn't have Leparoux on his back, also weaker competition in preps
#12 Prospective - Smoked by others in the Bluegrass, would need a lot of luck
#13 Went the Day Well - Versitile running style, but just can't trust the competition he went against.
#16 El Padrino - Flat in last race and new jockey, should have great position to close strong with speed inside, but not sure if will be used properly.
#5 Dullahan - May not be the quickest horse out of the gate, but is very manuverable in the middle and seems to get progressively faster as the race goes. Should be in excellent striking distance around the 3/8 pole.
#6 Bodemeister - Morning line favorite, blew away the field in the Arkansas Derby and seems to be peaking at the right time. Good enough pace to keep in the front 1/3 of the pack, opening up a strong finish.
#8 Creative Cause - My pick to win it. Consistently fast, always in the money, and has one of the best closing kicks- just hasn't had the distance to fully use it. The extra 1/8 of a mile will be where CC pulls away, bank on it.
#19 I'll Have Another - Beat Creative Cause in the SA Derby and is rounding up very nicely. Ran the fastest of the 1 1/8 prep races, will be driving hard into the wire.