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Marketing Mix a Lawn Standout on Derby Day

5/3/2013 6:52 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$182.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

 

Churchill Down's 8th Race contests of 10 fillies and mares traveling a mile on the lawn.

 

First angle I attempted to use was the projected pace up front. #4 Frontside at 30-1 owns early speed, and with the longshot status, will definitely go up to attempt to steal the race. #10 Stopshoppingmaria (10-1) is stretching out from 5 furlongs and has successfully went 43 and 2 internal halves and manage to win. She'll be ridden to the front, and try to take them wire to wire. Finally, #3 Daisy Devine (3-1) is prefrenced towards the front. Her internal fractions and pace projection is not as fast as #4 nor #10, but she has that need to lead personality. With this pace projection, #8 Marketing Mix (5-2) should sit off the pace and come calling in the stretch. After the pace angle, I then looked at her internal fractions. I noticed specifically in her pace parameter calculations that she has a legit E2 move, but has the ability to remain somewhat fast in the stretch run. Two back in the BC F/M Turf, she made up 12 1/2 lengths from half mile to the six furlong pole. My third angle was her improving beyer figures (89, 95, 96, 97, 98, and 98).. She seems to run a faster pace of race than the others. My fourth angle is "First off the Shelf" on classic PP's, she is 2 for 2 (visaully on PP's) first off the shelf. Last but not least, Garrett Gomez is a very good ONE MOVE jockey, and can certainly guide this one to victory. My huge longshot to hit the board is #1 Drama Drama (30-1) because her graded stake efforts, while running very wide, have actually been respectful. I could see her sneaking in the superfecta.... With all the speed, I will keep the #10 in my super, since she has improving figures pace wise and Johnny V is aboard. #3 will also be included, just out of respect (she beat me last year in the Jenny Wiley, and ruined my trifecta)... I'd consider the #5 Hungry Island (4-1) and #6 Stephanie's Kitten (4-1) as exacta threats. The only F/M that can beat #8 is #6, if.

 

PLAYS: $40 Win, $100 Show on #8 Marketing Mix.

$4 Exacta Box: 5-6-8

$2 Exacta: ALL/8

 

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