Alright, here's my analysis... let me know what you think.
Horses Without a Shot
The following horses are just out-classed, too slow, or just killed by their post position for 20-horse race:
#2 Oxbow, #4 Golden Soul, #7 Giant Finish, #11 Lines of Battle, #15 Charming Kitten, #18 Frac Daddy (I know, son of "Scat Daddy", but yea.. overmatched) #20 Vyjack
Pace-Setters That'll Burn Out
#1 Black Onyx - Tough to put him in here as he's not dynamite out of the gate, but being on the rail he'll be forced early, will fade and be passed by plenty by race end.
#12 Itsmyluckyday - last four furlongs will see him fade out of the top four on the board
#13 Falling Sky - Loves to lead, but then will get breezed by by better class horses
Strong Contenders That Just Miss
#5 Normandy Invasion - Great horse.. just doesn't win. Showed lesser vs other horses in this race before.
#6 Mylute - 2 for 9 lifetime and most of those races against inferior competition.
#10 Palace Malice - Have just seen this horse get beat by much weaker competition. Really strong finish in the Blue Grass but not enough consistency for me to believe in.
#16 Orb - I almost wanted to put this horse in the "No shot" category because he's pretty slow (only once w/ a speed rating over 100) and he doesn't have great early speed (could get shuffled back). HOWEVER he has won four in a row and does have a decent final kick... I'm still not impressed enough to see him in the money.
#17 Will Take Charge - Didn't race in any Grade 3 races, has an inexperienced KD jockey on back- those scare me away.
#19 Java's War - hate putting him in this group, the Blue Grass was an INCREDIBLE comeback win for him- showed he can close from wayyyy back. However his slow pace and the class of the horses in the KD will equate to him finishing around 5-8th simply because he won't be able to pass the large field.
THE TOP FOUR CONTENDERS
#3 Revolutionary - Fastest horse on the track, hard to argue with that. Has experience in the slop blowing away the competition. Should be in the money if not winning it all
#8 Goldencents - Should burst out of the gate and to the lead with #13. Will keep mud out of his face, which could be the deciding advantage. Has the ability to gate-to-wire, kind of see him finishing 3rd though being passed very late.
#9 Overanalyze - I kept looking at this horse's stats, over and over. Thought what he would be like in the slop, why some flat races before, why the jockey changes, what size is he... oh wait.. am I just overanalyzing this?? Ok puns aside this horse's blitz down the final straightaway in the Arkansas Derby and him digging in winning an absolute duel in the Remsen... he will win. You give this horse another 1/8 of a mile to run and I'm hard pressed to say he won't pass everybody in the field. Perfect stalking horse- reminds me a lot of I'll Have Another.
#14 Verrazano - Great spot, great speed all around from gate to wire, tough horse to beat, however I question his stamina in the last 1/8 of a mile... has sliiiiightly faded at the ends of recent wins.
Final Picks in Order
9 - 3 - 14 - 8 (Trifecta Box)