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Ky Oaks - The Ladies Have Arrived For The Ball

5/2/2013 8:16 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$142.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

This Friday marks the running of the 2013 Kentucky Oaks.  There are many capable 3-year-old fillies in this field, and Todd Pletcher is becoming a common theme in both the Oaks, where he has four entered, and the Derby.  Nevertheless, there are some who are capable of an upset.  Let’s look at the field:

SILSITA(20-1, Tr. Todd Pletcher; Jy. Gary Stevens)  She has only had four outings, her most recent a victory in the Bourbonette Oaks(Gr. III), going the distance of a mile at Turfway Park over synthetic.  She has experimented with all surfaces(including two on turf and one on dirt), but her worst performance was on dirt.  She acquires the services of movie star and jockey, Gary Stevens.  Her lone dirt effort indicates that the additional distance might not be to her liking.  Her sire is Macho Uno.  Career record: 4-2-0-1, $84,725.

MIDNIGHT LUCKY(9-2, Tr. Bob Baffert; Jy. Rafael Bejarano)  Lightly-raced Midnight Lute filly has nice connections in owner Michael Pegram(who is part of a co-ownership) and Baffert(remnants of former Oaks winner Silverbulletday).  Retains the services of Bejarano in the irons.  Has looked impressive against lesser competition, winning the ungraded Sunland Park Oaks in her last effort.  Career record:  2-2-0-0, $153,600. 

BEHOLDER(7-2, Tr. Richard Mandella; Jy. Garrett Gomez)  Juvenile Filly champ comes into this race with nice credentials.  She’s won her last three Grade I’s, two of them going the distance of a mile and a sixteenth.  She’s been the Best of the West, but this will be her first time outside of the state of California.  Keeps Gomez, who has ridden the Henny Hughes daughter her whole career.  Question is, can she ship?  Career record:  8-5-2-0, $1,575,000.

UNLIMITED BUDGET(7-2, Tr. Todd Pletcher; Jy. Javier Castellano)   Undefeated Street Sense filly tries her hand at Grade I competition.  Her last effort was in the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks, where she was united with Castellano for the first time.  Started her career at Aqueduct, so she has shipped well.  Career record:  4-4-0-0, $610,200.

SEANEEN GIRL(20-1, Tr. Bernard Flint; Jy. Rosie Napravnik)  Started her career at Woodbine.  Changed trainers in November, and won the Golden Rod(Grade II) at Churchill.  Last out was off of a 4-month layoff, in which the Spring At Last filly ran a respectable 3rd in the Fair Grounds Oaks(Gr. II).   Seems they have had this one designed for this race for a long time.  Pick up the services of last year’s winning Kentucky Oaks jockey.  She has won over this surface!!!!  Career record:  7-2-1-2, $220,197.

PRINCESS OF SYLMAR(20-1, Tr. Todd Pletcher; Jy. Mike Smith)  Daughter of Majestic Warrior had reeled off four consecutive victories, prior to her last race setback.  Castellano opted off of this one for Pletcher’s Unlimited Budget, so Mike Smith fills the bill as new jockey.  She has some decent closing speed.  If a speed duel would set up in front, she could be part of the big picture, in the end.  Career record:  6-4-1-0, $238,220.

PURE FUN(30-1, Tr. Kenneth McPeek; Jy. Julien Leparoux)  Leparoux picks up the mount on this Pure Prize filly.  McPeek has taken a mystifying journey with this one.  She ran five of her first six races on turf-nothing to write home about.  She then romped over this surface.  Ran her last three over synthetic, winning the Gr. I Hollywood Starlet, and in her last race, she ran against the boys in the Lexington Stakes as a warmup.  She adds Lasix for the first time.  Maybe McPeek is onto something?  Career record:  10-3-1-2, $353,699.

DREAMING OF JULIA(3-1, Tr. Todd Pletcher; Jy. John Velazquez)  Daughter of A.P. Indy; won last race, the Gulfstream Park Oaks(Gr. II) by 21 ¾ lengths; has the successful jockey/trainer team.  The Morning Line favorite.  What’s not to like?  Well, if you’re ever going to hit a longshot, you got to go against the favorite.  Though she won by 21 ¾ lengths, who did she beat?  None of the other five fillies in that race are coming into this race; though a successful team, Velazquez has been on the shelf, recovering from a spill.  He has not rode a horse in, or around, a month.  Maybe a little rusty?  She’s only 1-for-3 in her last three Gr. I 2-turn races.  I think I’d try and beat her.  Career record:  6-4-1-1, $767,000.

ROSE TO GOLD(15-1, Tr. Sal Santoro; Jy. Calvin Borel)  Borel has been aboard the last two rides.  She’s won a large share of her races, but, she hasn’t really taken the best route to get here(ran at Oaklawn).  Her lone Grade I experience was a 12th place finish in the Alcibiades @ Keeneland.  She does know how to win.  Just don’t think the caliber of competition has been anything compared to this race.  Career record:  7-5-1-0, $717,889.

FLASHY GORDON(Tr. William Mott; Jy. Junior Alvarado) - ****SCRATCHED****

CLOSE HATCHES(6-1, Tr. William Mott; Jy. Joel Rosario) First Defence filly is undefeated, and must be William Mott’s main filly(scratched Flashy Gordon).  Regular rider Rosario is back again.  She’s won at Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct, going two turns.  Has had good works over Churchill’s track.  Main drawback might be too lightly raced.  Still like.  Career record:  3-3-0-0, $201,300.

THE PICK

What a star-studded race this looks to be.  With my intent of trying to beat the favorite, let’s try the filly that’s beat DOJ, #3 Beholder.  We’ll play her in a $4 Exacta Box with #2 Midnight Lucky(lightly raced, but just might step up to bat), #6 Princess of Sylmar, and #11 Close Hatches.  Let’s swing for the fence in this hardball game, with a wiffle bat, taking #6 across the board $10 WPS.   Lastly, let’s try a Oaks/Derby double $4 partwheel(2-3-6-11/5-12-14-20).  Total bet - $142.

May the horse be with you.

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Lucky you Ruffian. One rarely has that good an oops. Usually it goes the opposite way. Congrats.
buckpasser | 5/4/2013 6:55 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
And, as this day nears the end, I thought I'd share a happy "Oops, I made a mistake" story. As the Derby ended, I proceeded to pull out my wallet to discard the losing tickets I had. When I looked at my Oaks/Derby ticket, I realized that I had mistakenly said 16 instead of 14. Ha!!! These are the kind of days that everyone should have!!! I wish everyone the best, and if it wasn't your day today, may it be tomorrow. Take care.
ruffian75 | 5/4/2013 6:36 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
Thank you, Patrick. Good luck to you tomorrow. Cash in silver dollars!!!
ruffian75 | 5/3/2013 9:43 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
Nice hit on the #6 ruffian!
patrick.l.mccaslin | 5/3/2013 9:38 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
Thank you, Mary. I appreciate your acknowledgement. I hope your day tomorrow is equally exhilarating. Good luck!
ruffian75 | 5/3/2013 9:17 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
Very nice hit, Ruffian ! Congrats.
Mary Z. | 5/3/2013 8:07 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
Damn, Ruffian. You had a great hit AND a $4 Exacta, and now a Double? You've made a fortune, and if you win the Double, you'll have made a huge fortune!!! Good luck tomorrow. If my colts don't win, I hope your's do.
rafirox | 5/3/2013 6:58 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
Thank you, Sully. GL.
ruffian75 | 5/3/2013 6:47 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
$2 will pays 5-$742 12-$983 14-$804.60 20-$1313.80. GL!
Sully | 5/3/2013 6:42 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
Hang on. I'll post them for you
Sully | 5/3/2013 6:38 PM |  - Re: Ky Oaks - The Ladies Hav...
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