Giant Oak seems like he has been banging on the door all year long. One year ago, he ran 2nd in the Ky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. He was listed among the top Derby contenders. But he's never fulfilled on his promise. Today could be the day.
Looking back on his PP's, he's been stuck behind slow paces all year long. The 47 2/5 half mile he was behind in Indiana was the fastest pace he's seen all year. He's shown big runs in the IL Derby and Arlington Classic (over turf), but he's never really put it together in a big race. Here's some other things he has going for him:
- Lots of speed outside him
- Good post (#3)
- Comes off a series of wide trips disguising his good runs
- Has a great race over the track
- Comes in off a bullet work over this track and the best recent work on his pp's
- 20-1 Morning Line
Going beyond his form, the main reason to like Giant Oak is the solid pace that should come from the series of speed and pressing types outside: Etched (post 8), Kiss the Kid (10 - shows speed on dirt), Timber Reserve (11), Misremembered (12) and Einstein (14). Some of these horses are going to have to go in order to secure position, which should ensure a healthy pace.
The closers that will benefit from the pace are:
Contenders for win - Blame (5), Giant Oak (3)
Contenders for place - You and I Forever (1) , Macho Again (2)
Contenders to hit board - Demarcation (4) and Anak Nakal (7)
In addition, we would use Misremembered (12) and Einstein (14) to hit the board as a backup. We'll toss Bullsbay (9) since he looks off form and this is going to be a deep ticket anyways.
Giant Oak’s past performance – Daily Racing Form
So, putting it all together (and swinging for the fences), here's our tickets:
$20 WP on #3 - Giant Oak
We consider Blame the most likely winner, so we'll take big backups with him.
$20 exacta 5-3
$3 trifecta Blame w 1-2-4-7-12-14 w Giant Oak = $18
$1 trifecta Blame w all w Giant Oak = $12
Next, we'll play Blame and Giant Oak on top in trifectas:
$1 trifecta 3-5 w 1-2-3-4-5-7-12-14 w 1-2-3-4-5-7-8-12-13-14 = $112
Then, we'll wheel Giant Oak in second shooting for a big tri:
$1 trifecta 1-2-5-12 with 3 with 1-2-3-4-5-7-8-9-12-13-14 = $36
And then back up Giant Oak in third.
$1 trifecta 1-2-5-12 with 1-2-3-4-5-8-12-14 with 3 = $24
$1 trifecta 2-5-8-12 with 1-2-4-5-8-9-12-14 with 3 = $28
Finally, figuring the speed could cause some longshots to get up for third, well key some longshots in third (Demarcation, Anak Nakal, Dubious Miss)
$1 trifecta 2-3-5 with 1-2-3-4-5-8-12-14 with 3-4-7-13 = $72
And, last but not least, some big 10-cent supers with those bombers:
$0.10 super 2-3-5 with 1-2-3-4-5-8-12-14 with 1-2-3-4-5-7-8-9-12-13-14 with 3-4-7-13 = $57.60
If you are keeping score at home, that's a total of $419.60... but we think it's worth it. You won't see a betting race this good until maybe opening day of Santa Anita!
Good luck!
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POST-RACE ANALYSIS:
What went right: We were basically all over this race as Blame and Giant Oak ran big races.
What went wrong: As carefully as we spread out our wagers, we weighted much too heavily with Giant Oak in third, and not enough in second. We also should have played our main trifecta with 3-5 on top once more on a tighter ticket with the other logical horses we were using, so we would have a 'chalky' trifecta like this one twice.
Consider that with Blame winning, and Giant Oak hitting the board, here's what we stood to cash:
Giant Oak 2nd - $20 exacta and $1 trifecta. The exacta was paying $164 ($1,640 for $20) and a $1 tri would have probably paid around $3,500 with Misremembered and maybe a little less with Einstein. So, that's a $5,000 payoff.
Giant Oak 3rd - We had an $8 tri with Blame, then Misremembered or Einstein with Giant Oak in third. Given the tri paid $699 for $1, we would have expected this tri to pay $1,500. So, having the tri 8x would have been worth $12,000.
Giant Oak 4th - As it ended, we had a $1 tri and 10-cent super to cash for $1,629. That's ok, but it's way out of balance with the payoffs above, and in reality, Giant Oak probably had a better chance to finish 4th than he did 2nd for sure. This shows how difficult it can be to bet a wide open race like this, even with a couple of strong opinions. As we said above, we should have played the main tri for $1 on a tighter ticket that might have cost only $50. Plus, at a minimum, we should have keyed Giant Oak in fourth for another dime, but probably another 30 cents. That would have only cost $42. Doing both of those would have generated another $3,500 in payoff.