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Belmont Stakes - Go back, Vyjack, do it again!!!

6/7/2013 5:58 PM
Track:
Author:
Amount Bet:
$95.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

THE BELMONT STAKES

This Saturday will mark the final leg of the Triple Crown.  Out of question is the possibility that one horse could be making their mark as the 12th Triple Crown winner.  Instead, this might be a rubber match between Orb and Oxbow.  The only thing that might be in their way is the other twelve contenders.  Of the fourteen participants, ten of them had run in the Kentucky Derby.  Likely, this is the most Derby contenders to ever seek a rematch in the Belmont.  Also, only three return from the Preakness.  For the life of me, though, it seems that in years’ past, that connections that opt to run in this race, actually, for the most part, make it the final race of this horse’s career.  Not sure if I’d make that call for a horse that I owned.  Anyhow, let’s look at the Belmont contenders, and see if they might deserve a shot in this race.  Here’s the field:

1 – FRAC DADDY(30-1, Tr. Ken McPeek; Jy. Alan Garcia. Sire: Scat Daddy. Broodmare Sire: Skip Away. Career:  7-1-3-0, $288,116).  McPeek is really high on this one, and he’s done this before, winning the 2002 Belmont with 70-1 bomb Sarava.  Receives the services of Garcia, who had won the 2008 Belmont with 38-1longshot Da’ Tara.   Still, I would have to find a lot of throw-outs, to make this one a possibility. Without me.

2 – FREEDOM CHILD(8-1, Tr. Tom Albertrani; Jy. Luis Saez. Sire: Malibu Moon. Broodmare Sire: Deputy Minister. Career:  6-2-1-1, $167,072).  His last race was impressive in the Peter Pan Stakes, over this oval. He won by 13 ¼ lengths in the slop in front running fashion.  Still, it was a one-turn 1 1/8 mile race.  Not convinced that the competition he faced that day equaled this crew, and not sure that he has two-turn experience, much less going this distance.  He should get some backing if the track is off.

3 – OVERANALYZE(12-1, Tr. Todd Pletcher; Jy. John Velazquez. Sire: Dixie Union. Broodmare Sire: Unaccounted For. Career:  8-4-0-1, $956,381).  Never made much headway in the Derby, his debut in the slop.  Does have an uncanny habit of winning every other race.  If that would be the case, he’s due for a win.  Not too impressed with his inaugural off track experience.

4 – GIANT FINISH(30-1, Tr. Anthony Dutrow; Jy. Edgar Prado. Sire: Frost Giant. Broodmare Sire: Hickman Creek. Career:  6-2-1-1, $133,050).   Began his career with three NY-state bred races.  Followed that up with two synthetic races, and climaxed with a non-descript finish in the rain soaked Kentucky Derby.  One stat that should be mentioned, is that this colt has only had one fast dirt track race.  Owners must have NY connections, and want to treat their friends to a day at the races.

5 – ORB(3-1, Tr. Shug McGaughey; Jy. Joel Rosario. Sire: Malibu Moon. Broodmare Sire: Unbridled. Career:  9-5-0-1, $2,395,850).  The Derby winner is the morning line favorite.  His last race was his first non-win in six tries.  Real head knocker.  Should be in the mix turning for home.

6 – INCOGNITO(20-1, Tr. Kiaran McLaughlin; Jy. Irad Ortiz, Jr.. Sire: A.P. Indy. Broodmare Sire: Unbridled’s Song. Career:  6-2-1-1, $106,710).    Anytime I see McLaughlin, I look with a wary eye.  He’s a very capable trainer(not to say the others aren’t), and he seems to be high on this one.  Didn’t show anything in the Peter Pan Stakes, but, he looked pretty decent three races back(last fast track).  It should be noted that he and one other horse(Revolutionary) are the only two that have their sire and broodmare sire with a S.P.I(Sire Production Index) above 3 for mudders.

7 – OXBOW(5-1, Tr. D. Wayne Lukas; Jy. Gary Stevens. Sire: Awesome Again. Broodmare Sire: Cee’s Tizzy. Career:  11-3-1-1, $983,500).   Preakness winner led throughout in that race, in what was the slowest Preakness since 1961.  His worst finish was 6th in the Derby.  Every other race he’s been somewhere close, if not winning it.  If this is his nature, he should be somewhere near the leaders in the end.  Out of curiosity, I wonder if this colt is why Stevens came out of retirement?

8 – MIDNIGHT TABOO(30-1, Tr. Todd Pletcher; Jy. Garrett Gomez. Sire: Langfuhr. Broodmare Sire: Thunder Gulch. Career: 3-1-2-0, $76,400.)  Lightly-raced colt shows nothing to think he deserves a shot. Is trained by Pletcher, but, I think this is owner Repole wanting his friends to have a box seat to the Belmont.

9 – REVOLUTIONARY(9-2, Tr. Todd Pletcher; Jy. Javier Castellano. Sire: War Pass. Broodmare Sire: A.P. Indy. Career: 7-3-1-3, $988,500).  His last race, the Derby, had him finishing a well-respected 3rd, despite being bumped and waiting at the ¼ pole.  This colt has not been off the board in seven races, and his sire and broodmare sire have decent S.P.I.’s for their offspring’s mud experience.  Definitely worth considering.

10 – WILL TAKE CHARGE(20-1, Tr. D. Wayne Lukas; Jy. Jon Court. Sire: Unbridled’s Song. Broodmare Sire: Dehere. Career:  9-3-1-0, $545,371).   Colt reunites with Court.  Won @ 28-1 three races back, and has run as if he’s 28-1 thereafter.  Has not show anything to justify taking this race, but, Lukas has done this before.

11 – VYJACK(20-1, Tr. Rudy Rodriguez; Jy. Julien Leparoux. Sire: Into Mischief. Broodmare Sire: Stravinsky. Career:  6-4-0-1, $542,200).  Ran up on the lead in the “sloppy” Derby, only to falter.  Seemed to be unnerved by the size of the crowd.  Has been dominant in NY(specifically Aqueduct), and showed some great closing speed in NY.  Don’t know if his “freak-out” from the crowd can be corrected in five weeks?

12 – PALACE MALICE(15-1, Tr. Todd Pletcher; Jy. Mike Smith. Sire: Curlin. Broodmare Sire: Royal Anthem. Career:  7-1-3-1, $271,135).  Was given blinkers for the Derby, and ran like a freak on the front end, weakening late.  This time around, Pletcher has taken the blinkers off, which some think will be the difference.  The fact that he’s only got a maiden win under his belt, shies me away from this one.

13 – UNLIMITED BUDGET(8-1, Tr. Todd Pletcher; Jy. Rosie Napravnik. Sire: Street Sense. Broodmare Sire: Valid Appeal. Career:  5-4-0-1, $705,200.)  The fifth of Pletcher’s entries only happens to be a filly. And, he has done this before, with Rags To Riches in 2007.  She ran 3rd to stablemate Princess of Sylmar in the Kentucky Oaks.  I would think the stablemate would be better fitted for this race than her.  Since Repole owns this one also, maybe the same could be applied as Midnight Taboo(see notes).

14 – GOLDEN SOUL(10-1, Tr. Dallas Stewart; Jy. Robbie Albarado. Sire: Perfect Soul(IRE). Broodmare Sire: Mr. Prospector. Career:  6-1-3-0, $517,400.)  Derby runner-up looked good in taking to the slop, and charging late.  Chances are, he’ll get another off track, but only has a maiden win to his credit.  Will be bet down since he showed so well in the Derby. 

THE PICKS

We’ll focus on Rodriguez assisting #11 Vyjack in getting over the crowd jitters, and performing admirably back in his home base.  The Derby was actually his first time away from NY.  His price should be nice, so we’ll go 5-10-20 WPS.  We’ll do a $1 Trifecta box, #5 Orb(because he’s good), #6 Incognito(sire and broodmare sire’s mud S.P.I numbers), #7 Oxbow(always seems to be around), #9 Revolutionary(he’s good, and S.P.I numbers), and #11.  Total bet - $95.

See ya’ in the Winner’s Circle!!!!

Thank you, Ace. I have always loved horse racing, and the thrill of picking a longshot is the ultimate challenge. I hope you were with me, when Princess of Sylmar rolled home. There are those that rely on a win pct. I would rather pick 1 longshot @ 35-1, than 3 chalks @ 5-2, out of 10. Though my win pct might be down, my ROI is the most important thing. Good luck to you today. Oh, and by the way, I'm a fan of yours. Thanks again for the acknowledgement.
ruffian75 | 6/8/2013 3:07 PM |  - Re: Belmont Stakes - Go back...
Wow is right, closest I've seen to my play. 3,5,9,11 ex & tri box w/progressive across on the Rev. 1- Revolutionary 2- Overanalyze 3- Vyjack 4- Orb.
4USammie | 6/8/2013 4:38 AM |  - Re: Belmont Stakes - Go back...
wow...i think this race is wide open,but i wasn't looking at Vyjack.I love reading your takes on all the horses and the fact you swing for the fences with bomb picks like this. Good Luck and thanks for another great write up. Your biggest fan ...ACE
phryb | 6/7/2013 9:54 PM |  - Re: Belmont Stakes - Go back...

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