POST TIME 6:32 PM EDT -- One one of the best betting races of the day as a full field of 12 evenly matched 3 year-olds engage in the stamina test of the year. Some are better prepared and bred for this marathon battle than others. I am confident that this race comes down to just two horses wtih the outcome determined by how the pace scenario plays out. Let's examine how this race is likely to unfold.
Speed is going to be very dangerous here as the race is void of must-lead types. The deepest closers will clearly be compromised. There is absolutely no question that #11 First Dude (7-2) will inherit the early lead and will have complete control of an early pace that is projected to be run several points below par. #8 Game on Dude (10-1) will suck in behind First Dude finding a very comfortable position along the rail. These two will take the field into the stretch run.
#12 Interactif (12-1) will slide in from the outside to take up the third position just a length or so behind Game on Dude. #3 Uptowncharlybrown (10-1) and (a bit of a surprise here) #9 Stately Victor (15-1) will take residence behind the top three to comprise the mid-pack runners. Rest of the field are the closers that will be spread out with #1 Dave In Dixie (20-1) and #10 Stay Put (20-1) taking up the rear but only 12 lengths will separate First Dude from Stay Put.
First Dude will ultimately put away a stubborn Game On Dude. Interactif will try to make a run at First Dude but will falter and get leg weary mid-stretch but will run better than his odds suggest and could hang on for piece at a price. Uptowncharleybrown will also burst onto the scene at the top of the stretch but will hang and run to his miler breeding. Stately Victor will outrun all the those that had been in front of him with the exception of First Dude and do so at a juicy price!
Then here comes the Zito horses! #5 Fly Down (5-1) and #6 Ice Box (3-1) will be running in tandem throughout, but clearly, better horse of the two, is Fly Down. Fly Down is a lightly raced colt getting good at the right time while others have already run their best races. Toss that Lousiana Derby flop. Lost all chance coming into the stretch. That Dwyer race was one of the best 3 year-old stakes efforts of the year. This boy is sitting on a huge race today. Loves Belmont and is bred to run all day long.
It will be Fly Down passing First Dude winning by the narrowest of margins in what will be a truly exciting stretch run. Ice Box will finish strong for third and Stately Victor snags the fourth spot. Drosselmeyer will pass Game On Dude for 5th and Dave In Dixie will be running best of the rest late but will miss the board.
The Wager:
$1 Superfecta 5,11 with 5,6,9,11 with 5,6,7,8,9,11 with 1,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 ($144)