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Nevada Kid Stretches Out at BEL

6/12/2013 8:16 PM



In Belmont Park's 2nd race on Thursday, eight entrants will dash the extended sprint distance of eight furlongs.

 The main win pick here is #7 Nevada Kid (4-1, third choice). This entrant has mainly faced tougher pace pressure going slightly shorter distances. In his last outing, he was blocked, steadied and forced on a 6 wide angle at the 3/16 and still managed a hard-fought second place finish. In his lone eight furlong contest, he finished second by four lengths to s superior entrant. It should be noted he came back with a 91 LP. Nicholas Zito really does well with the sprint to route entrants. In his previous outings, this entrant has been run on his own; not pushed nor strangled; so I think he'll run a solid 84 E1, sit off the leaders, and come with a nice move from slightly off the pace. I saw him live on 12/27/12 at Gulfstream where I also hit him, so he's bound for a big one! Win candidate.

 Another worthy contender is #1 Much Stronger (2-1, ML Favorite). This entrant has shown very nice speed. Compared to the field's E1 and E2 pars, he should have little if not no trouble getting to a nice position up on the front end. He has the habit of drifting out in the stretch, evidented by several handicapping footnotes on previous races,  so that might cause an issue. I find it obvious he has the early speed and late speed combination that will work at this track. Win candidate.

 Two entrants that are MINOR contenders and I would not be surprised to see them hit the board: #2 Terminus (5-1, fourth choice) and #3 Pontus (6-1, fifth choice). The #2 is solid over this track. One of my favorite angles is an EARLY horse shifting from a turf clunker to a dirt race. I think this early entrant will burn out off the #1 entrant but might be able to nip for a piece.

 Primary contenders: #1 Much Stronger; #7 Nevada Kid

Secondary Contenders: #2 Terminus; #3 Pontus

Possible underneath exotics: #4 Tizmas; #8 Reserved Quality

Throw outs: #5 Nevada; #6 Indiana Moon

Odds will decide the wagering, if there is a wager. It appears if there is a wager it will be a straight bet on  Nevada Kid AND/OR Much Stronger DEPENDING on odds.

 A trifecta AND/OR superfecta might be played.

 Good luck!

Analysis by Ed (a.k.a Rafirox)

Didn't play a super due to the scratches. I missed a $2 trifecta box which costed $48. I did hit $30 Win, $60 Place bet on Nevada Kid... Nevada Kid, as posted, was my top pick and he won. It was a very nice cashing for me, especially since this was my first "Play of the Day" since Derby Day. I've generally been posting on my own threads, but I'm going to try to do daily plays for now. Nice hit, I'll post more tomorrow! (ps: I accidentally put this race under 6/12 instead of 6/13).
rafirox | 6/13/2013 1:33 PM |  - Re: Nevada Kid Stretches Out...

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