Belmont Race Two:
When the TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that a race will be run at a fast early pace, it's generally wise to hunt for a value closer. Such is the situation here, and Cinnamon Beach (15/1 morning line) certainly fits the profile of the type of closer we are looking for.
Cinnamon Beach is making his second start off of a 257-day layoff and deserves a pass for his non-effort last time--when he was making his first start for trainer Danny Gargan. Even though Gargan isn't the most exciting trainer (his overall trainer rating is a nondescript 71), he's still a much higher-rated trainer than Phillip Scott, for whom Cinnamon Beach established his best form.
If the expected hot pace materializes, Cinnamon Beach has a chance to pull off an upset at what should be humongous odds.