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Speaking of Which back at winning distance in Hollywood Derby

11/24/2012 11:53 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$50.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

Sunday's 9th race (4:37pm PT) from Betfair Hollywood Park is the Grade I Hollywood Derby for 3-year-olds traveling a mile and a quarter on the turf course. 

#11 Speaking of Which (9-2) made a premature move into above par splits and was tagged late by today's rival Grandeur in a 9f Graded affair at Santa Anita Nov 2. He romped at this distance in Ireland earlier this year and appears poised to spring forward in his second US start.


#8 Rjwa
(8-1) is a fresh filly invading from France. She handles this trip and seems to do her best work with time between starts.

#1 Big Bane Theory (15-1) is lightly raced and on the improve for Gaines. He owns plenty of upside and projects a cozy ground saving trip in midpack and should have every chance to succeed at square odds.

#4 Grandeur (7-2) finished with gusto to beat my top in the G2 Twilight Derby. He has struck twice at ten furlongs but has been in steady training since April and may have peaked last out.

I have always lilked #13 Summer Front (5-1) and he is relatively fresh with only one start since August. The gem of consistency needs to work out a trip from a tough post and top notch rider Dominguez knows him well.   

#3 Unbridled Command (6-1) is a talented NY-bred in search of five straight wins. He might prefer a bit of give in the ground.

The Plays:

$20 to win #11

$6 Quinella 8-11

$1 Trifecta 8-11/1-4-8-11/1-3-4-8-11-13 ($24)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

For daily insight on Betfair Hollywood Park's Pick 6 races, please check out Pick 6blog.com for free selections and tickets.
Simple answer rather THINKING that the foreign horses will be over bet, WAIT and see.

The odds board, NOT YOUR HANDICAPPING gives you the reason to even open your wallet for the race. THE ODDS board is the arbitrator to bet our not.

An aside, I would wager that the real trainer is nothing like his portrayal in that awful series. That one had potential but it just reinforces the stereotypes in racing and leaves out all the hard work that is NEVER portrayed.
travel_vic | 11/25/2012 12:03 PM |  - Re: Speaking of Which back a...
after scratches: same horses
travel_vic | 11/25/2012 11:20 AM |  - Re: Speaking of Which back a...
This is a great betting race and a long shot opportunity. I believe the foreign horses will be over-bet. And the trainers statistics do not warrant it. Contenders before scratches are: #4 Grandeur, #8 Rjwa, #9 My Best Brother, and the #11 Speaking of Which. Paring this field down to the two most likely possibilities, it comes down to the #4 and #9. I believe either one could win as they are very close in the numbers. However, because of the nature of the race, I will go to the #9 My Best Brother (12/1), the value of the race...Canani/Garcia. J. Canani is notoriously dangerous when his horse is a price and overlooked, as portrayed in the short lived T.V. series, "Luck." I would also take a small saver bet on the #4. However, load up on the win end with #9. Exactas...9/all. Doubles going in and out...all/9 + 9/all. If you've got the bankroll for the Tri...take...9/11, 4, 5, 1/all. Good luck on a good betting race!!!
cognibene | 11/25/2012 9:34 AM |  - Re: Speaking of Which back a...
Before scratches: contenders are 4 Grandeur (IRE) 11 Speaking of Which (IRE )
9 My Best Brother 13 Summer Front Love those Irish breds
travel_vic | 11/25/2012 8:46 AM |  - Re: Speaking of Which back a...

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