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Suances Vixen back on synthetic ground

11/17/2012 8:07 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$30.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

Sunday's 8th race (4:08pm PT) from Betfair Hollywood Park is a Starter Allowance event for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on Cushion Track. 

#6 Suances Vixen (5-1) has only raced on all-weather footing once and she smartly tallied from off the pace at Del Mar that day. The fresh filly gets pace to chase and Vienna shows a profit with the blinkers on move. Garcia is riding well at the current stand.

Play Sunday's Betfair Hollywood Park games at DerbyWars.com. 

#8 Twirlybird (8-1) looked good in her debut graduation run at Santa Anita. She has the productive Krigger/Miller team in her corner and figures in the hunt throughout. 

#2 Zoe B (8-1) was nabbed out of her last by sharp 1st off the claim trainer Metz. She ran well in both synthetic sprints and projects an inner tactical journey at playable odds.

The Plays:

$18 to win #6

$6 Quinella 6/2-8 ($12)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

For daily insight on Betfair Hollywood Park's Pick 6 races, please check out Pick 6blog.com for free selections and tickets.

Suances Vixen sat the right trip but was not quite good enough and ended up 3rd at 9-1. Miss Lady Ellen was a bad favorite and faded as expected.
mdracing69 | 11/18/2012 6:27 PM |  - Re: Suances Vixen back on sy...
9/4 exacta
travel_vic | 11/18/2012 6:16 PM |  - Re: Suances Vixen back on sy...
This is not a race that bodes well for a price. Never-the-less a winner is a winner. Contenders in this race are: #4, 1, 8, 9. The #6 has a few things going for him...but is up against it in this race. That being said, The most likely winner according to the numbers, before scratches is the #4 Oscillator (4/1). The value horse is the #8 Twirlybird (8/1). Since this is a race non conducive to value, I will bet the #4 Oscillator to win and take exacta with the 4/all. Tri...4/1, 8, 9, 2/all. Good luck!!!
cognibene | 11/18/2012 10:52 AM |  - Re: Suances Vixen back on sy...
before scratches: 1 Miss Lady Ellen BIG EDGE, but probably no odds 9 Christmas Candy
4 Oscillator 6 Suances Vixen
travel_vic | 11/18/2012 10:00 AM |  - Re: Suances Vixen back on sy...
Maybe one of these days I will figure out how to INITIALLY start a topic, so this seems to be the best place to start. We all LIKE some courses better than others, BUT does that course offer YOU, the bettor, the BEST chances to make parimutuel success? We all have different abilities and the ONLY way YOU are going to find out just WHERE YOU should put your efforts is to keep a diary (excel works very well for this) over a short course of time with an honest assessment of your betting.

Once you find a group of tracks where you can predict the winners in the top 83-85% of you top 4 contenders, you then take a subset of those to find out where wagering you should follow. For example, I found I could figure out both Pimlico and the Fair Grounds (dirt), but the odds offered were just not worth my while. Add BHP to that list (small fields, heavy favorites).

Make your wagers be worth it. I found that I stink with turf sprints, and do very very well (price too) in maiden races on the main course. I discovered great fields and payoffs in a few of the evening courses than I ever thought possible. and some courses I leave alone at the beginning of their meeting until the 4th week minimum (both Woodbine and Oaklawn). Some courses, like Belmont, Saratoga, and often Gulfstream give great racing great value daily and should not be missed.

NOW, this is all from the perspective of how I evaluate a race. YOU may be different. I know a fellow who is on a racing site out of Reno who has narrowed this to such a degree that all he does, day in and day out, is play 4.5 furlong races. HE has found that HIS methods and that distance are worth being exclusive.

YOU will never know where your strengths and weakness reside until you do this exercise yourself. Be honest as any skewed results will cost you down the line.

Contenders for this race coming up after scratches.
travel_vic | 11/18/2012 9:44 AM |  - Re: Suances Vixen back on sy...

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