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Strange Luck a live second timer at BHP

11/15/2012 10:43 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$30.00
Amount Cashed:
$220.60

 

Friday's 8th race (4:07pm PT) from Betfair Hollywood Park is a $30,000 Maiden Claiming event for 2-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs on Cushion Track. 

#8 Strange Luck (4-1) took some action (5-1) in her 5.5f Santa Anita bow but never got seriously involved (winner romped) over that speed conducive oval. The above average $97k purchase trained here during the month of August, Garcia strings along, and she could be much better than her debut suggests. She sports a solid Santa Anita worktab for this engagement and I am looking for an improved effort at a hint of a price.

Play Friday's Betfair Hollyowood Park games at DerbyWars.com.  

#12 Katy's Star (3-1) landed the rail in both starts and flashed improved early foot last time. Today's outer draw could make all the difference and she looms a pace factor at the very least.  

#9 Sassy Brunette (5-1) drops out of a MSW event, attracts Talamo, and Art Sherman shows a profit with second time starters.

#10 Deft Touch (5-1) drew the intimidating rail in her downhill turf sprint bow across town. O'Neill excels with this type of dropper.  

The Plays:

$15 to win #8

$7 Quinella 8-12

$2 Exacta 8-12/9-10 ($8)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

For daily insight on Betfair Hollywood Park's Pick 6 races, please check out Pick 6blog.com for free selections and tickets.

Strange Luck ($10) sure was a live second timer. Nailed the $41.60 Quinella as well. Gotta love 2YO maiden races!
mdracing69 | 11/16/2012 6:29 PM |  - Re: Strange Luck a live seco...
After scratches contenders are 10 Deft Touch A+ 9 Sassy Brunette B+ 12 Katy's Star F 8 Strange Luck F
travel_vic | 11/16/2012 5:11 PM |  - Re: Strange Luck a live seco...
After scratches: 10 Deft Touch 9 Sassy Brunette 12 Katy's Star 8 Strange Luck LONG SHOT 6 Swiss in Paris
travel_vic | 11/16/2012 2:35 PM |  - Re: Strange Luck a live seco...
Good luck with this race. As travel_vic above...these contests are basically unpredictable and risky. Nothing for me stands out in the race...pass...Good luck!!!
cognibene | 11/16/2012 10:09 AM |  - Re: Strange Luck a live seco...
Two year old maiden race: risky and usually does not offer value. Operative work usually. If one reviewed the payoffs at Holly the past few cards, they would realize to stay clear of this place: it is not worth the wagers. First time through, before scratches 10 Deft Touch 16 Apalachee Song 6 Swiss in Paris 1 Miss Denny
travel_vic | 11/16/2012 7:44 AM |  - Re: Strange Luck a live seco...
Don't know where else to put this. There are, IN FACT, TWO separate games played out at the track. The vast majority accept the first (handicapping) and simply deny the latter (self evaluation, feedback, track demographics, understanding probability as it relates to a shifting market structure like stocks and commodities). Unless YOU KNOW YOURSELF, by recording both Where physically your best returns comes from, and in which wagering situation (contenders, non contenders, exotics, straight etc). Imagine you are with the Red Sox and you are a pitcher: that staff videotapes your very move, analyzes it (under the pressure of a real game) and then WITH that knowledge, goes to work at the minor alterations in what needs to be changed. Without feedback, NO ONE knows where to tweak the mechanism....Just throwing out "picks (I have come to despise that term as it means next to nothing in this complex challenge), and DENYING the fluid aspect of the crowd's setting the odds, race to race, is simply an admission that you want to remain with the 98% who show no long term profit. Until each and every turf speculator KNOWS him/herself LONG TERM, and uses that data to forge cogent, fact based wagering tactics, they just remain amateurs.

Evaluation of this contest to follow, BUT the real challenge to this race, and EVERY race, is to evaluate the FLUID dynamics of oscillating probabilities and compare that to the stable pre-race probabilities that rational evaluation produce. With simulcasting we have such latitude that we should NEVER limit ourselves to take it or leave it, but find those venues and races that give us the edge. The rational bettor (like rational investors in any other market whether it be real estate, stocks, commodities, etc) only risks where the reward is worth it. This game is about making $$$$$$ not handicapping.
travel_vic | 11/16/2012 7:33 AM |  - Re: Strange Luck a live seco...

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