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Breeders Cup 2015
Kentucky Derby 2017

Associate offering top value in the G1 Cigar Mile

11/23/2012 1:40 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$104.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

POST TIME 3:20 PM EDT--It is interesting to note that horses making their next start exiting Breeders' Cup races, more often than not, fail to produce and usually at very low odds.  In this year's edition of the Cigar Mile, we have three starters that made a Breeders' Cup race their last start.  This includes Coil exiting a troubled Sprint.  Gossip Girl overwhelming her competition in the Filly & Mare Sprint and Jersey Town finishing mid pack in the Dirt Mile.  The fresh horses in this race include Associate, Stay Thirsty and Buffum.   Pace sets up to be more than honest here and #3 Buffum appears to be the likely pace leader with pressure applied by #1 Stay Thirsty, #7 Groupie Doll.  A thorough pace analysis suggests that #6 Coil and #2 Associate will find this race set up to their liking and their form cycle indicates that they have upside here while others are likely to have already run their best races this year.  I am tabbing these two as my top win contenders.  #2 Associate will be making his third start off the layoff.  Has run only 4 times in 2012.  This game 4 year-old logged two top efforts at Belmont with a top effort last fall at Aqueduct.  One-turn sprints/mile configurations are in his win wheelhouse.  Tab this long-shot as a huge value play today.  #6 Coil clearly likes the dirt and had no shot when dusted at the start in the BC Sprint.  Makes his fifth start of the year and Baffert would not have shipped cross country again if he didn't have a serious shot at winning this race outright.  BC starter with the best shot to win.  #1 Stay Thirsty certainly ran an all time best in that Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Lightly raced this year and the two month layoff should have served him well.  It was wise not to run this one in a Breeders' Cup race.  Will be fresh and game and look for a top effort.  #4 Jersey Town ran his lifetime best in winning this race last year.  May have peaked in the Kelso back in September but worth consideration in the bottom of Exactas.  If this were Belmont Park or Saratoga, #3 Buffum would rate but his Aqueduct appearances have been dull to say the least.  Taking a stand against.  #7 Groupie Doll tries the boys for the second time in her career.  Will regress off that peak effort in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint but this is one quality filly that has made a strong case for 2012 Sprint Champion honors.

THE WAGER:

$30 Exacta 2 with 1,6

$10 Exacta 2 with 4

$6 Exacta 1,6 with 2,4

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Older Comments about Associate offering top value in the G1 Cigar Mile...

Hym Book way off form and proved it
low odds exacta but still there
contenders: 1 Stay Thirsty 7 Groupie Doll 5 Hymn Book
Scratch #2 Associate. Scratch #4 Jersey Town.
Contenders are the #2, 5 and 6. It is odd that the horse with good connections, speed and an improving pattern can be 20/1 on the m.l. But that's the way I see it too!...#2 ASSOCIATE. The only knock on the horse is the use of front wraps. But the horse has won with them before, so maybe it's not such a big deal. But ordinarily I am wary of horses like that. None-the-less, bet #2 to win. Exactas with #2/all. Tri....2/all/all...if you have the bankroll for it. I prefer doubles going in and out...all/2...2/all. Good luck!!!
I read through the analysis, and I have been helped by those screeners, but I have a question. Is Gossip Girl Ruffian's niece, the television show, or Groupie Doll's nickname? I have to think about this as every mile race she ran was bb (before blinkers). This will be her coldest temperature race, I believe. Just to add some odd factors.
I think Coil has a good shot, but my outsider is Hymn Book. He's been knocking heads with the country's best all year & appears to like the cutback to elongated sprints.

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