POST TIME 3:20 PM EDT--It is interesting to note that horses making their next start exiting Breeders' Cup races, more often than not, fail to produce and usually at very low odds. In this year's edition of the Cigar Mile, we have three starters that made a Breeders' Cup race their last start. This includes Coil exiting a troubled Sprint. Gossip Girl overwhelming her competition in the Filly & Mare Sprint and Jersey Town finishing mid pack in the Dirt Mile. The fresh horses in this race include Associate, Stay Thirsty and Buffum. Pace sets up to be more than honest here and #3 Buffum appears to be the likely pace leader with pressure applied by #1 Stay Thirsty, #7 Groupie Doll. A thorough pace analysis suggests that #6 Coil and #2 Associate will find this race set up to their liking and their form cycle indicates that they have upside here while others are likely to have already run their best races this year. I am tabbing these two as my top win contenders. #2 Associate will be making his third start off the layoff. Has run only 4 times in 2012. This game 4 year-old logged two top efforts at Belmont with a top effort last fall at Aqueduct. One-turn sprints/mile configurations are in his win wheelhouse. Tab this long-shot as a huge value play today. #6 Coil clearly likes the dirt and had no shot when dusted at the start in the BC Sprint. Makes his fifth start of the year and Baffert would not have shipped cross country again if he didn't have a serious shot at winning this race outright. BC starter with the best shot to win. #1 Stay Thirsty certainly ran an all time best in that Jockey Club Gold Cup. Lightly raced this year and the two month layoff should have served him well. It was wise not to run this one in a Breeders' Cup race. Will be fresh and game and look for a top effort. #4 Jersey Town ran his lifetime best in winning this race last year. May have peaked in the Kelso back in September but worth consideration in the bottom of Exactas. If this were Belmont Park or Saratoga, #3 Buffum would rate but his Aqueduct appearances have been dull to say the least. Taking a stand against. #7 Groupie Doll tries the boys for the second time in her career. Will regress off that peak effort in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint but this is one quality filly that has made a strong case for 2012 Sprint Champion honors.
THE WAGER:
$30 Exacta 2 with 1,6
$10 Exacta 2 with 4
$6 Exacta 1,6 with 2,4