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Key the 3 in the G3 Modesty Handicap

7/12/2014 11:55 AM
Author:

 

POST TIME  6:25 EDT--Tremendous wagering opportunity awaits the punter in this year's edition of the G3 Modesty Handicap to be run on the lush Arlington Park turf course going 1 3/16 miles.  Enhancing the wagering intrigue is the fact that with rain all around the Chicago area today, the turf course will come up yielding by race time.  A note about how the turf course plays at Arlington Park when it gets soaked.  Contrary to popular belief, near the front on the rail is the place to be when the turf course comes up yielding.  Speed carries and deep closers struggle.  The "Win Zone" is typically horses positioned 2 to 5 lengths off the lead in the 1 or 2 path.  In plotting out the likely pace scenario and early race positions of this year's field, we have a race pretty devoid of speed despite 14 fillies and mares going.  #11 Maid On a Mission and #13 I'm Already Sexy will slot over from their outside posts to the rail to lead the field into the first turn.  Sitting back in the "Win Zone" off these early leaders you will find #3 Every Way getting THE trip in this field saving tons of ground throughout with a cozy rail position.  The Morning LIne odds on #3 Every Way are 15-1.  My own line has this filly at 5-1 so value to be had.  The improving Michael Stidham filly has been in the Exacta in 7 of her last 8 starts.  Go-to rider James Graham has a 30% win record over the past 60 days when riding for Stidham and he is off a couple of others in here to ride this one.  Form cycle projects another move forward today and a lifetime top is probable.  Distance and the yielding turf should pose no concerns.  #8 Frivolous is another "Win Zone" filly that will likely take a position just 2 to 3 lengths off sitting just to the outside of #3 Every Way.  Another improving filly that will be overlooked at the windows yet deserves consideration here.  Victor Espinoza is in to replace James Graham on this mount that is showing strong recent form against tougher. Do not leave this one off your Exotics wagers.  #9 Ana Luisa is an obvious Pletcher choice that returns to the turf after an impressive showing in the G3 Sixty Sails Handicap at Hawthorne back in April.  Looks like a must use type but value will be unattractive.  Should be sittng near the "Win Zone" but might be caught too far outside in the early going.  #5 Kepi is a consistent-as-they-come type.  Loves this turf course (and the softer the better) and has not been out of the Superfecta over the last 10 races.  At six year's old this mare is still going strong.  Distance is the only question but pace and track conditions could carry her further today.  Another strong value play in the bottom of Exotics.  #13 I'm Already Sexy, while not in the "Win Zone", this filly has a distinct pace advantage if she doesn't get used hard early trying to overcome the far outside post.  Get's Lasix for the first itme today and will be a dangerous player with a front-running trip.  This Wayne Catalano -trained filly is a perfect 3 for 3 on the Arlington Park turf course and will move forward again today in this her third start off the long layoff.

The Wager:

$100 Win #3

$.50 Trifecta 3,5,9,13 with  3,4,5,6,7,8,9,12,13,14 with 3,5,8

Expected rain never materialized at Arlington Park. Turf remains firm. No change to wagers.
mshutty | 7/12/2014 3:57 PM |  - Re: Key the 3 in the G3 Mode...

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