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With a Rebel Yell It’s The Factor

Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 49

Sometimes there is nothing more dangerous than good old fashioned speed, and that is something The Factor has in abundance. Making every pole a winning one, The Factor, under rider Martin Garcia, powered to the lead within the first few strides and rolled to an easy six length score in today’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

After a pair of impressive wins sprinting at Santa Anita, there were many questions on whether the son of first-year sire War Front could handle two-turns. At least some of those answers were answered in high fashion this afternoon in Arkansas.

Owned by Fog City Stable & George Bolton, The Factor paid $4.80 as the 7-5 favorite in the field of nine, in winning his third straight race after losing his debut. Caleb’s Posse nipped Archarcharch for place money. For now the Factor’s next race is uncertain, but the April 16 Arkansas Derby is a possibility, according to trainer Bob Baffert.

There can be no doubt that The Factor’s win today was high quality, but what will it mean as we close in on the Kentucky Derby? Today he ran 8 ½ furlongs with little pressure. A good speed horse should be too strong for the rest after an easy first part like that. Fractions for the grey speedster included a first quarter in 23.33, the half in 46.77, six furlongs in 1:10.98, the mile in 1:35.99, and the final time for the 1 1/16 miles was 1:42.99. Meaning he set quality, but not blazing quarters of 23.33,  23.44, 24.22, before finishing with a final 5/16 in 31.20. Solid, but the final part of the race shows us that no one in the field was doing much running in the late stages. By way of comparison, The Factor ran only .17 slower than the top older filly Havre De Grace ran in winning the Azeri Stakes one race earlier.

Looking forward seven weeks, whether The Factor turns out to be like many other speed horses who were toasted by the early pressure and demanding distance of the Kentucky Derby remains to be seen. Horses of great speed like Spend A Buck, Winning Colors, and War Emblem were able to lead their Run for the Roses competition on a merry chase, so there is hope. I am not ready to fully buy in yet, but he does remind me of Winning Colors to this stage.

[How high will The Factor rise in the HRN 2011 Kentucky Derby Contenders after today's impressive win?]
 

 

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Older Comments about With a Rebel Yell It’s The Factor...

This Horse seems to me to have that added ingredient that will help him win the Derby....he loves to run.....I believe with Baffert's wisdom and experience he will have Factor ready.....Baffert is the best and Martin Garcia is an excellent hand rider and " find the hole " Rider... and knows when to make his move..... his only downside is he likes to play a little but after all he is still very young....he seems to get in front and tease the other Horses saying "Go ahead...catch me if you can...." Hopefully Martin can make him keep his minmd on his business
I can see that the factor is on his way to becoming an underlay.
I like the way you think judyjewel. My derby rating is exactly the same as yours. But I Soldat and To Honor and Serve could move up dramatically depending how they run in Fla Derby.
I rate my derby horses this way, Premier Pegasus, The Factor, Uncle Moe
Right on KyOaksRunner. The Factor is fast but his "run hard throughout" style won't cut it at 10f. Uncle Mo is much more likely to get the Derby distance because he is rateable, versatile, and has the ability to distribute his energy properly. I am bummed about Sway Away as well. The OP track was speed favoring and he did have some trouble and an uncomfortable trip but still should have run much better.
I'm sticking with Uncle Mo for my moneys worth right now, he's the fastest sophomore in America right now and rateable. The Factor was really impressive but I don't think he'll be able to hold that kind of dominance in the Kentcky Derby. I was surprised to see J P's Gusto and Sway Away throw in complete clunkers.
Exactly. That's how you make money in the Derby. It's tough betting with 20 horses, but horses like Conveyance, Sidney's Candy and The Factor help a lot. They help because not only can you toss them out, but their sheer speed can often eliminate a few other speed horses.
You could be right arazi. I just wrapped up my morning radio segment and Steve Bortstein and I both stated that he is not a ten furlong horse. We also said we really want him to make the Derby because he is sure to take plenty of action.
Haven't we seen The Factor before? Wasn't his name Conveyance?
Rock solid 103 BSF for the Rebel. The Factor was strong but according to the sheets The Factor and Sway Away were the only fast horses in the race and the latter did not show up. The Factor needs to ration his energy if he expects to handle 10f.
Not sold he can go far, but yesterday's win was more than just a speed ball holding on. We'll see.
Two things we found out today: he can run fast at two turns, and, he likes to run fast, regardless of what the field is doing. I'm still a beginner here, but it does remind me of another horse by the name of Secretariat! (Don't laugh!) He did what he did because he wanted to, and it didn't seem to matter what the other runners were doing. The Factor just looks like he is having fun out there, and now it seems he may be able to run all day! Watch out, Uncle Mo....Derby Trail "lite" might not be such a good idea...I really do like Mo, hope he lives up to his hype, but the hysteria is building for just that one horse, and I sense the table being set for a huge letdown. It just feels like he went off like a rocket in his two year old season and now he's coasting, compared to what others are doing. I read somewhere he's not going to be facing a whole lot of competition in the Wood, whereas, in the Fl Derby, he would. Oh, well, all of this is making for a fun Derby season!
Big Rebel winners: The Factor and Elite Alex. Tim Ritchey looks like genius now scratching out of the $300k Rebel for the $1 million, 9f LA Derby, especially if he runs big next weekend.
Definatly one of my Derby picks now
The Kentucky Derby plot just thickened once again....
Wow....the Factor 's win in the Rebel Stakes was superfine!

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