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Why Mine That Bird Won't Win The Belmont



By Mike Shutty, HorseRacingNation


As the saying goes, fool me once; shame on you.  Fool me twice; shame on me.  Fool me a third time and this racing pundit will be helping himself to a heaping plate of a different kind of “bird” that goes by the name—crow!


I, along with a legion of other non believers, acknowledged that while we were fooled by the outcome of the Kentucky Derby, there was no way Mine That Bird was going to fool us again in the Preakness Stakes.  The proclamations were plentiful.  Some of us felt that Mine That Bird had everything his way in the Derby…closing into a strong pace along the best part of the track enjoying a dream trip.  Others speculated that no horse that just ran the top figure of its career by 15-20 points (depending on your speed rating service) could duplicate that effort in the Preakness Stakes.


Standing united some of us non believers (including yours truly) boldly declared that Mine That Bird would not even hit the board in the Preakness.  Our more conservative brethren took the stand against Mine That Bird winning the race and were vindicated for their insight though holding their breath during the stretch run.


Read Mike's Full Analysis here: 



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Older Comments about Why Mine That Bird Won't Win The Belmont...

Well, so much for my prediction that Dunkirk and Summer Bird will prove to be better horses than Mine That Bird as we get into late Summer and Fall racing. You have to have all four legs working to run and apparently Dunkirk wasn't durable enough to sustain his bid. Very unfortunate for Dunkirk but great for the "Birds" (Summer and Mine That) connections. Birdstone will be well-represented in the Summer and Fall classics.
It's refreshing to have a horse who is talented be a gelding...
Though i don't like Mine that Bird and hope he doesn't start winning again till next year he has shown that he is a quality and tough as nails horse by running in the money in all 3 triple crown races.
Mine That Bird remains one of the best 3-year olds out there. It's too bad that he still has not gotten the respect that he has earned by hitting the boards in all three Triple Crown races. His third place finish in the Belmont is noteworthy because he, along with Flying Private, are the only two horses to run all three gruelling legs. I believe that ww will see more of Mine That Bird and his connections in the future, and I, for one, am looking forward to the summer and fall races. I hope that Mine That Bird will run at Saratoga in the Jim Dandy and the Travers, and I will definitely plan to be there to cheer him on.
That's an interesting point... if he was fading form-wise, then would he have been rank down the backstretch? Was he even rank at all?????????
Oh...what I meant to say is that HRN projected that Calvin Borel would move too early on Mine That Bird! :) Seriously, that could have been the case but those two big tops had to have some impact on his sharpness late, even if it meant just the narrow difference between second place and third place.
I think Mine That Bird's kick was fine, it was just made too early.
Time to assess how we did in our pre-Belmont Stakes analysis: What didn't go as planned: 1. Dunkirk inherited the early lead instead of just sitting off the lead 2. Neither Miner's Escape nor Charitable Man served as the pace leader as projected 3. A confirmed closer won the race 4. Summer Bird was sitting on a bigger race than projected and was the best of our identified key closers (Flying Private, Summer Bird, Mine That Bird) What did go as we projected: 1. The 2009 Belmont Stakes was run in a slower than par pace and almost identical to our projections (BRIS Actual 91 104 versus Projected 90 104) 2. Mine That Bird did not win nor did he finish second due to the slower pace but more so the impact running two tops had on taking the punch out of his late kick 3. BRIS pace figs helped identify Dunkirk's superior pace figs resulting in the strong effort despite making the pace 4. Chocolate Candy finished in the back due to weak pace and speed figs throughout his career confirming the inferiority of this year's CalPoly 3 year olds
Got to agree that a lot of factors are working against the bird... slow pace, the Belmont can favor pace horses, two tough races, possible bounce pattern... and way overbet... no way he is 2-1 like the track odds... all in all, a great bet against!
Shutty makes sense here....I hope he is right this time.
the birdman flys in any weather....once in the flat...lights out!
mine that bird is going to romp!!
Reminds me of Charismatic. Another horse that was not suppose to win.
Poor Mine That Bird can never get any respect.
This is a great analysis... a must read...

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