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Who's Hot Under The Sun Part 4

 

In edition #4, we will look at the jockeys’ success over FAST tracks versus OFF tracks, to see if any jockeys excel in the off-going, when they have to multi-task(flip their goggles, yet keep their focus on the navigation of their horse).  Also, we will display the best times for Gulfstream in 2014.

Briefly summarizing the doings of last week at Gulfstream, Normandy Invasion made a successful return to the races, by recording a mile-best time for this meet.  He had disappeared after a respectable fourth in last year’s Kentucky Derby.  Good to see the Chad Brown charge return with such a flourish.  He should be a contender down the road for the older horse division.

But first, let us show the current jockey standings for the 2014 Gulfstream meet(from January 1 through Wednesday, February 26).  They will be listed in Track Variance order:

NO

1

2

3

W%

BR PT PCT

TRACK VARIANCE

P%

BR PT PCT

TRACK VARIANCE

CASTELLANO

221

69

36

23

31.2%

29.5%

19.194

47.5%

52.0%

23.456

VELAZQUEZ

53

9

8

6

17.0%

16.2%

6.041

32.1%

38.3%

10.195

SAEZ L

243

43

39

22

17.7%

16.0%

5.765

33.7%

30.1%

9.883

LOPEZ P

220

36

25

28

16.4%

15.2%

4.362

27.7%

32.5%

3.724

LEZCANO

129

20

19

22

15.5%

21.6%

4.173

30.2%

37.3%

7.570

ROSARIO

209

31

37

29

14.8%

20.7%

3.044

32.5%

43.0%

8.960

LEPAROUX

129

18

15

22

14.0%

16.3%

2.404

25.6%

34.6%

2.483

ZAYAS

105

14

11

15

13.3%

18.4%

0.744

23.8%

38.9%

1.370

BRAVO

137

15

17

15

10.9%

17.1%

0.259

23.4%

35.5%

0.943

PRADO

91

10

10

13

11.0%

12.7%

0.413

22.0%

30.2%

0.826

DAVIS

188

20

20

28

10.6%

23.1%

1.593

21.3%

44.1%

3.186

TRUJILLO

90

9

10

17

10.0%

7.2%

1.805

21.1%

16.9%

2.498

ROCCO

163

16

22

22

9.8%

15.6%

1.885

23.3%

29.6%

0.089

LANERIE

142

13

16

17

9.2%

26.2%

2.529

20.4%

28.6%

2.945

JAEN

157

13

20

11

8.3%

10.3%

3.954

21.0%

19.0%

3.449

 

For a better understanding of the terminologies, and the purpose for these headings.  W% is self-explanatory.  It will be the wins divided by number of races.  There sometimes would be a difference between the W% as you know it, and what it actually is.  If the jockey is part of an entry, and the other half of the entry wins, the jockey will get credit for the win in the W%, but it won’t be reflected in number of wins.  The Break Point Pct. Is the average payoff translated into a comparable percentage to the W%.  If the W% is greater than the Break Point Pct., the jockey would realize a profit.  Lastly, Track Variance is utilized to evaluate a jockey based on the size of the fields he/she wins in(i.e. extreme example: if two jocks are at 20%, they are initially regarded as equal.  But, if one jockey won in a two-horse race, and the other won in a 20-horse race, their numbers would be 50.000 and 95.000 after that race).  Track Variance is a good gauge for determining the success of the jockey.

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

For the most part, these numbers are based on what the jockey has accomplished, with no regard to the horse(s) he/she is riding.  If you’re in a situation where you’re playing multiple horse exotics, you might regard one of these jockey trends.  Criteria for making the grade:  At least 3 wins, a Win Track Variance of at least 14.000, and the W% - 5, is equal to, or greater than the Win Break Pct.; five 1st or 2nd’s, a Place Track Variance of at least 16.000, and the P% - 4, is equal to, or greater than the Place Break Pct; or Six 1st 2nd, or 3rd’s, a Show Track Variance of at least 17.000, and the S% -3, is equal to, or greater than the Show Break Pct..  For the bad side, at least 23 races, with a Win Track Variance of at least 5.000.

HOT

W=Win                 P=Place                                S=Show                                Sprint=Dirt races up to 6 ½ furlongs

Middle=Dirt races 7 furlongs to a mile                     Route=Dirt races beyond a mile

Turf Sprint-Turf races below a mile                          Turf Distance=Turf races mile or longer

JAVIER CASTELLANO Javier is running away from the rest of the jockey colony, clearly making himself the kingpin of Gulfstream.  Because of his success, his popularity amongst the betting throng makes him a difficult choice to show where he would be a clear cut selection.  Still, there are some areas where he still excels, and shows a profit.   Middle, P.P. 3(W, P, S; 7-4-1-1) and P.P. 5(W; 4-for-5) are profitable .  Route, Off(W, P; 7-5-1-0);  Fast track, P.P. 2(S; 9-for-11) and P.P. 5(5-for-9);  Off track(W, P; 20-11-3-1) also show net worthy gains.  Turf Sprints, P.P. 5-7(W; 7-for-17) and Turf Distance, P.P.’s 4, 9, and 10(W; 13-for-29) also.  Lastly, P.P.’s 4-5 overall, will gain you a Win profit(20-for-55).

JOHN VELASQUEZ – Although John is one of the top jockeys in the country, he has only recently returned to the track, after a recent hospitalization.  His numbers have not accumulated much data thus far, but we will provide what info that he has mustered.  Turf Distance has provided a return profit on Show investments(13-for-23).  His only other profit would be of the Place variety when he is breaking from P.P. 2(5-for-10).

LUIS SAEZ – Luis is an up-and-coming jockey that might be coming of age.  Areas where he is hot are:  Sprint, Fast, P.P. 4(W; 3-for-9); Sprint, P.P. 1(3-for-6); Middle, Off, P.P.’s 2-5(W; 4-for-6); Middle, P.P. 5(WPS; 7-3-2-1); Middle(W; 13-for-42); Turf Distance, P.P. 1(P, S; 9-2-4-0); Turf Distance, P.P. 8(W; 3-for-11); Turf, P.P. 2(W, P; 7-3-2-0); Overall, P.P. 1(Show; 15-for-25); P.P. 2(P, S; 22-5-6-2); and, P.P. 8(P, S; 25-6-6-2).

PACO LOPEZ – Sprint, P.P. 4(P; 5-for-7); Sprint; P.P’s 5-6(W; 8-for-20); Turf, P.P. 1(P; 5-for-7);  Turf; P.P. 2(WPS; 10-4-1-2); Turf, P.P. 9(S; 6-for-10).

JOSE LEZCANO – Turf Distance, P.P. 6(W; 3-for-7) and Turf Distance, All(S; 34-for-61).

JOEL ROSARIO – Turf, P.P. 7(S; 7-for-14); Turf, P.P. 9(W, S; 12-5-0-3).

JULIEN LEPAROUX – Sprint(P, S; 16-2-6-2); Turf, P.P.’s 7-8(5-for-15).

EDGARD ZAYAS – P.P. 7(W; 3-for-8).

JOE BRAVO – Fast, P.P. 1(W; 3-for-7).

EDGAR PRADO – Turf Sprint(P; 6-for-15); P.P. 2(S; 9-for-15).

DYLAN DAVIS – Overall, P.P. 3(S; 14-for-25); Overall, P.P. 1(W; 8-for-25).

ELVIS TRUJILLO – P.P. 1(W; 3-for-8); P.P. 3(S; 13-for-19).               

JOE ROCCO – Middle, Off(WPS; 9-4-1-1); Off(W, P; 21-7-3-5); P.P. 4(S; 9-for-13).

 

NOT

JOHN VELASQUEZ – P.P.’S 5-10 are 1-for-24.

LUIS SAEZ – Turf Distance, P.P’s 3-6(0-for-31).

PACO LOPEZ – Middle, P.P.’s 2-5(0-for-24); Overall, P.P.’s 9-10(1-for-23).

JOSE LEZCANO – Turf Sprint(1-for-24).

JOEL ROSARIO – Middle, P.P.’s 2-8(1-for-24); Turf, P.P.’s 4-5(1-for-25).

JULIEN LEPAROUX – Middle, Route(2-for-28); P.P.’s 5-6(1-for-28).

EDGARD ZAYAS – P.P.’s 5-6(1-for-27).

JOE BRAVO – P.P.’s 6-9(2-for-50).

EDGAR PRADO – Turf Distance, P.P.’s 4-13(1-for-30); Turf, P.P.’s 3-5(1-for-23).

DYLAN DAVIS – Sprint, P.P.’s 5-12(1-for-29); Off(2-for-23); Turf Sprint(1-for-27); Turf, P.P. 2-5(1-for-27); Turf, P.P.’s 7-12(1-for-29); Overall, P.P. 5(1-for-25); Overall, P.P.’s 8-12(0-for-30).

ELVIS TRUJILLO – Turf, P.P.’s 3-12(1-for-37); P.P.’s 5-12(1-for-36).

JOE ROCCO – Turf Sprint(1-for-28); Turf, P.P.’s 3-8(1-for-56); P.P.’s 3-6(3-for-69).

COREY LANERIE – Sprint, P.P.’s 3-12(1-for-28); Turf(2-for-66)

FAST vs OFF TRACK SUCCESS

The following will be the standings of the jockeys on Fast dirt tracks versus Off dirt tracks.  This might enlighten you to jockeys that have a knack for upgrading their performances if the track is off.

FAST

NO

1

2

3

W%

BR PT PCT

TRACK VARIANCE

P%

BR PT PCT

TRACK VARIANCE

CASTELLANO

80

26

13

9

32.5%

34.2%

18.875

48.8%

56.3%

21.501

SAEZ L

99

24

14

11

24.2%

18.6%

10.773

38.4%

40.3%

11.446

VELAZQUEZ

22

4

4

0

18.2%

24.8%

5.936

36.4%

51.0%

11.872

LEZCANO

42

7

4

6

16.7%

26.6%

3.547

26.2%

48.5%

0.050

ROSARIO

78

13

15

14

16.7%

23.9%

3.159

35.9%

47.3%

8.882

PRADO

26

4

2

4

15.4%

12.9%

3.041

23.1%

37.7%

1.611

LANERIE

63

10

7

10

15.9%

28.8%

3.008

27.0%

34.1%

1.253

LOPEZ P

84

13

13

10

15.5%

20.9%

2.170

31.0%

37.4%

4.340

ZAYAS

43

6

4

5

14.0%

24.3%

0.747

23.3%

47.6%

3.156

BRAVO

46

6

7

2

13.0%

14.9%

0.093

28.3%

41.0%

2.360

DAVIS

86

11

11

17

12.8%

25.5%

0.712

25.6%

53.7%

1.424

TRUJILLO

38

5

7

7

13.2%

4.9%

0.333

31.6%

16.8%

4.596

JAEN

62

6

9

3

9.7%

21.5%

3.956

24.2%

16.7%

3.074

LEPAROUX

31

3

9

4

9.7%

36.1%

3.855

38.7%

40.1%

11.645

ROCCO

49

4

6

6

8.2%

20.7%

4.555

20.4%

24.8%

5.028

 

OFF

NO

1

2

3

W%

BR PT PCT

TRACK VARIANCE

P%

BR PT PCT

TRACK VARIANCE

CASTELLANO

20

11

3

1

55.0%

37.5%

39.331

70.0%

62.2%

38.663

ROCCO

21

7

3

5

33.3%

24.7%

17.594

47.6%

41.3%

16.141

BRAVO

4

1

1

1

25.0%

14.5%

8.750

50.0%

38.5%

17.500

SAEZ L

18

4

1

4

22.2%

28.4%

7.158

27.8%

53.2%

2.350

ZAYAS

25

5

3

5

20.0%

16.2%

5.263

32.0%

35.6%

2.527

LOPEZ P

27

5

1

3

18.5%

37.6%

4.083

22.2%

62.5%

6.649

ROSARIO

14

2

4

3

14.3%

29.4%

0.289

42.9%

61.9%

14.863

VELAZQUEZ

0

0

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

PRADO

10

1

0

4

10.0%

37.0%

5.190

10.0%

76.9%

20.381

DAVIS

23

2

6

3

8.7%

21.7%

6.023

34.8%

46.0%

5.345

JAEN

24

2

6

3

8.3%

7.4%

6.353

33.3%

24.1%

3.962

LANERIE

13

1

1

2

7.7%

34.5%

6.972

15.4%

66.7%

13.944

LEPAROUX

13

1

3

4

7.7%

18.9%

7.338

30.8%

49.4%

0.708

TRUJILLO

5

0

1

1

0.0%

#DIV/0!

13.214

20.0%

18.2%

6.429

LEZCANO

2

0

1

1

0.0%

#DIV/0!

13.393

50.0%

62.5%

23.214

 

 

Lastly, we will display the best times at Gulfstream for this year, 2014.

 

MEET

DATE

DIST

HORSE

JOCKEY

TRAINER

TIME

1/31

5F

MAGIC MESA

LOPEZ

FARRO

:58.64

2/9

5 1/2F

LITTLE ALEXIS

SOLIS A

VACCAREZZA

1:02.85

2/20

6F

HAPPY MY WAY

BRAVO

ORSENO

1:08.26

2/9

6 1/2F

GROUPIE DOLL

MARAGH R

BRADLEY

1:14.68

2/8

7F

FALLING SKY

SAEZ L

WEAVER

1:20.65

 

7 1/2F

 

 

 

 

2/22

1 MILE

NORMANDY INVASION

CASTELLANO

PLETCHER

1:33.13

2/16

1  1/16

DEVIL'S CASE

CASTELLANO

WOLFSON

1:41.00

2/9

1 1/8

LEA

ROSARIO

MOTT

1:46.86

1  3/16

1/9

1 1/4

TREE HUGGER

LEPAROUX

NEVIN

2:07.09

1 1/2

TURF

2/23

5F

BELIEVE IN CHARLIE

CASTELLANO

BUSH T

:54.73

2/22

7 1/2F

DIVINE OATH

CASTELLANO

PLETCHER

1:28.27

2/22

1 MILE

RELOAD

CASTELLANO

MCGAUGHEY

1:32.34

2/7

1 1/16

BURN THE MORTGAGE

CASTELLANO

MAKER

1:39.32

2/9

1 1/8

LOCHTE

BOCACHICA

VITALI

1:45.67

2/15

1 3/8

TWILIGHT ECLIPSE

LEZCANO

ALBERTRANI

2:15.18

2/26

1 7 /16

TATTENHAM

ROSARIO

MOTT

2:18.62

2/15

1 1/2

GOLD FORMER

LEPAROUX

BLOCK

2:27.48

 

In hopes that all your ventures are good.  Good day to all good sports.

 

~Written by Brian Bradley

 

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