Anyone who has been following the North America Cup news knows by now that the Yankee Cruiser sophomore Sweet Lou looks like a horse of a generation - especially after last week’s sizzling 147.4 elimination win. You probably also know that his closest pursuer in last week’s dash, Warawee Needy is considered by most to be his biggest threat. Considering “Needy” fired off a 148.1 mile in his first start as a 3-year-ols, it’s hard to argue. Fair enough; Lou and Needy are the horses to beat. If everything falls into place perfectly, one of them could even eclipse the current all-age, all-time World Record of 146.4 shared by Somebeachsomewhere and Holborn Hanover. So, does anyone else have a shot tonight? We think so, and will provide some video evidence from last week’s eliminations to support out opinion.
First, we give you Thinking Out Loud, trained by Hall of Famer Bob McIntosh. This rapidly-improving son of Ponder had an eventful trip in Sweet Lou’s elimination heat last week, to say the least. First of all, the colt couldn’t find a spot on the pylons early and raced the entire mile parked-out, which according to Trakus data made his journey 51 feet longer than Lou’s. Yu’ll notice in the video, too, that Thinking Out Loud was mired behind dead cover around the home turn and had to circle as Lou and pocket-sitting Warawee Needy were accelerating away from the tiring first-over horse.
Now, I’m not going to go crazy emptying my pockets on him trying to beat Sweet Lou, but, chances are there is going to be a lively pace to chase and if Thinking Out Loud can save some ground early, he may just mow ‘em all down late at a healthy price. He is also a good horse to include in the kicker leg of the early pick 4 as is our next “live longshot”, Time To Roll.
Time to roll didn’t leave as alertly as he can in the elimination, and, as a result, found himself more than 10 lengths back in a 54.4 first half, which is reasonable, but also not crazy speed for these calibre of pacers. So TTR had his work cut out for him, for sure. To make things worse, Time To Roll when he pulled from the back, to make his assault on the leaders, found himself 4th-over behind excess cover and with a quarter mile to go, he was still 8 ¼ lengths in arrears despite having paced a rapid 26.2 3rd quarter. What happened from there home gives us the feeling that Time To Roll has a shot at the top prize tonight. He stormed home, firing off another 26.2 quarter and fell just a stride or two short of nailing the winner, Dapper Dude who came from 3rd over just in front of TTR. In his penultimate start, Time to Roll produced a courageous first-over gring in a New Jersey Sire stake to nail Cup rival A RockNRoll Dance in the final strides. Clearly if there is an early or mid-stages speed battle, this impeccably-bred son of Rock N Roll Hanover-Kikikikate could also be flying by horses late. He is another viable option to include on Pick 4 tickets at 12-1 in the morning line.
Let’s move into the “DriveOn Bets” segment which has has dreadful luck so far, missing several well-paying pick 4s by noses and heads on the wire. Still, that is often the way the game plays out, so we move on, looking specifically to cash the pick 4s and looking at a couple of “value” picks as well.
Original Balance: $1,000
Current Balance: $295
Let’s go get some money tonight!
Race 4 - $1 Pick 4 - 124569/2348/3/345 - $72 (20-cant option would cost $14.40 for this one)
40-cent Pick 4- 124569/2348/347/345 - $86.40
Race 4 - $1 Tri 29/124569/124569 - $40
- $5 exacta box 2-9 - $10
- $25 win 2 - $25
Race 10 - 20-cent Pick 4 -4678/14589/127/369 - $36
-40-cent Pick 4 - 8/14589/127/369 - $18
Total wagered - $277.40
Current Balance $17.60 (Gulp!)
Hoping for a score and a great show tonight at The ‘Hawk on Cup night!