Tough Break for Derby Favorites

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April 28, 2010 6:27 AM

Post positions have been drawn for the 2010 Kentucky Derby and the two favorites took the worst of it.

Lookin At Lucky will break from the dreaded rail post and has been installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite. The Bob Baffert trainee is exiting a troubled 3^rd in the Santa Anita Derby and must work out a trip once again under Garrett Gomez.

Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney’s Candy will break from post 20 and is the 5-1 second choice on the line. Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby from this post.

The field for the 136^th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby:

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	Odds
1	Lookin At Lucky	G. Gomez	126	B. Baffert	3-1
2	Ice Box	J. Lezcano	126	N. Zito	10-1
3	Noble’s Promise	W. Martinez	126	K. McPeek	12-1
4	Super Saver	C. Borel	126	T. Pletcher	15-1
5	Line of David	R. Bejarano	126	J. Sadler	30-1
6	Stately Victor	A. Garcia	126	M. Maker	30-1
7	American Lion	D. Flores	126	E. Harty	30-1
8	Dean’s Kitten	R. Albarado	126	M. Maker	50-1
9	Make Music For Me	J. Rosario	126	A. Barba	50-1
10	Paddy O’Prado	K. Desormeaux	126	D. Romans	20-1
11	Devil May Care	J. Velazquez	121	T. Pletcher	10-1
12	Conveyance	M. Garcia	126	B. Baffert	12-1
13	Jackson Bend	M. Smith	126	N. Zito	15-1
14	Mission Impazible	R. Maragh	126	T. Pletcher	20-1
15	Discreetly Mine	J. Castellano	126	T. Pletcher	30-1
16	Awesome Act	J. Leparoux	126	J. Noseda	10-1
17	Dublin	T. Thompson	126	D. W. Lukas	12-1
18	Backtalk	M. Mena	126	T. Amoss	50-1
19	Homeboykris	R. Dominguez	126	R. Dutrow	50-1
20	Sidney’s Candy	J. Talamo	126	J. Sadler	5-1

What the Nation is saying about Tough Break for Derby Favorites...

Tough Break for Derby Fa...

I really think that Sidney's Candy is big enough, strong enough, and fast enough to compensate for having the #20 post position. Similar to how Big Brown was in the 2008 Derby. I think he'll break quickly and smartly, and slide over out front, ahead of the field. If he's able to do that, then it just becomes about whether or not he has the stamina at 1-1/4 to hold off the rest of the Kentucky Derby field. My one and only concern about Sidney's Candy is the conventional dirt question? Will his synthetic form translate that effectively to dirt? If it does, I think he'll be the horse to beat, with Eskendereya out of the Derby picture. Because it certainly didn't appear watching Sidney's Candy in the Santa Anita Derby that having to travel another 1/8 mile is going to be a problem for him. JMO.

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Tough Break for Derby Fa...

Where they leave the gate is not as important as how they break. Numerous things can happen to any entrant from any post at the break and/or during the race in a 20-horse field. A horse can draw a perfect post but a stumbling start can blow his/her perceived advantage. A horse can break sideways and wipe out other entrants. 'Lucky and 'Sidney are seemingly the two best horses and either can win from anywhere if they get the right trips. You have to be lucky and good to win the Derby.