Photo: Timothy A. Clary / 2004 AFP
I'm a very fortunate horse bettor, because, my Father was a horse trainer. A few of the tips below, some of you might already know. But, if you didn't, then these tips will surely help improve your handicapping skills.
Tip #1: Why do analysts always talk about an outside draw being so advantageous?
There are three primary reasons (from a purely horsemanship perspective), and they are as follows:
1. 'Eating Dirt' - Most horses are not a big fan of this, and in some cases it truly does impede their progress. If a horse has drawn to the outside, the eating dirt variable is basically eliminated.
2. 'Wide = Relaxed' - Almost all racehorses are trained to go slower (and become more 'relaxed'), when they're running away from the rail. When running along the rail, one of two innate traits kick-in instinctively: A. Said horse will get 'racey'. Or, B. The horse could become a bit claustrophobic - and neither are very productive to a horse being able to give his or her all down the stretch!
3. Lastly and most obviously, it typically leads to a 'Clean Trip'. Additionally, in a highly contentious race (like the 3rd at Saratoga, on Monday); the horse/jockey that is the last horse to make their move towards to leaders is usually the horse getting this wide but clean trip, and should win.
Tip #2: A High Head Carriage - Generally speaking (but more so with older horses), a horse that runs with their head high is just 'going through the motions' and truly doesn't want to win.
Tip #3: 'The Double Betdown Horse' - This tip is pretty self-explanatory. Let's say a horse is 20-1 on the Morning Line (ML, in future blogs), and said horse was 35-1 in its lat race. Now, the horse in question is suddenly bet down to 19-1 or less. This, would constitute a 'Double Betdown' horse, and most definitely a horse that you might want to give another look at.
~Written by Joseph Tuttle