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The Suspect Six

Last week we highlighted our “Sleeper Six,” a list of potential Breeders’ Cup entrants who likely will offer extreme value to handicappers. This week we are pinpointing our “Suspect Six,” a group of high-profile Breeders’ Cup contenders whose chances for success may not be nearly as good as advertised.

BOYS AT TOSCONOVA (Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) There is no doubting this colt’s class or talent, and his victory in the Hopeful S. (G1) last month at Saratoga came despite a poor start and a wide trip against a legitimate field. He may very well be as good as trainer Rick Dutrow believes he is, and the colt’s workouts in recent weeks have been superb. However, the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is a two-turn race, and there must be plenty of concern whether this lightly-raced colt will be as effective over a route of ground as he has been sprinting. Officer, the sire of Boys at Tosconova, had distance limitations and in fact faltered under pressure to finish off the board as the odds-on favorite in the 2001 Juvenile. Additionally, Officer never won a race around two turns, failing at short odds in the subsequent Cal Cup Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity, and most of his best offspring have done their best work sprinting. The other red flag is this colt’s lack of seasoning and the absence of a recent outing. When he goes to post on Breeders’ Cup Saturday, Boys at Tosconova will be making his first start in two months. You may recall that Dutrow tried to pull off a similar stunt last year with the distance-challenged Belmont Futurity (G2) winner D’ Funnybone, who attempted to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile following a 53 day layoff. D’ Funnybone finished last.

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