Last week we highlighted our “Sleeper Six,” a list of potential
Breeders’ Cup entrants who likely will offer extreme value to
handicappers. This week we are pinpointing our “Suspect Six,” a group
of high-profile Breeders’ Cup contenders whose chances for success may
not be nearly as good as advertised.
BOYS AT TOSCONOVA (Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile)
There is no doubting this colt’s class or talent, and his victory in
the Hopeful S. (G1) last month at Saratoga came despite a poor start
and a wide trip against a legitimate field. He may very well be as good
as trainer Rick Dutrow believes he is, and the colt’s workouts in
recent weeks have been superb. However, the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile is a two-turn race, and there must be plenty of concern
whether this lightly-raced colt will be as effective over a route of
ground as he has been sprinting. Officer, the sire of Boys at
Tosconova, had distance limitations and in fact faltered under pressure
to finish off the board as the odds-on favorite in the 2001 Juvenile.
Additionally, Officer never won a race around two turns, failing at
short odds in the subsequent Cal Cup Juvenile and the Hollywood
Futurity, and most of his best offspring have done their best work
sprinting. The other red flag is this colt’s lack of seasoning and the
absence of a recent outing. When he goes to post on Breeders’ Cup
Saturday, Boys at Tosconova will be making his first start in two
months. You may recall that Dutrow tried to pull off a similar stunt
last year with the distance-challenged Belmont Futurity (G2) winner D’ Funnybone, who attempted to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile following a 53 day layoff. D’ Funnybone finished last.