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The Sleeper Six

This week we present our “Sleeper Six,” a list of six Breeders’ Cup entrants who might be a shade undervalued as we approach the 2010 World Thoroughbred Championship weekend at Churchill Downs next month.


ROGUE ROMANCE (Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) — Despite a breathtaking, last-to-first victory in the Bourbon S. (G3) over the Keeneland turf last weekend, this impressive son of Smarty Jones might be ticketed for the Juvenile, rather than the Juvenile Turf, by trainer Kenny McPeek. We understand the logic — the colt has an exceptional turn of foot and should very well appreciate the extra half-furlong of the Juvenile — and if the two heavyweights in the division, Uncle Boy and Boys at Tosconova, fail to see out the trip, Rogue Romance could be the last colt standing in the final furlong. That said, the conservative approach might be preferred. Unless a hot shot Euro surfaces in Louisville — and at this time we have no idea who or how many that might be — Rogue Romance appears the one to beat in the Juvenile Turf. After a better-than-looked debut fourth in a maiden turf two-turner at Saratoga in mid August, the colt improved significantly to graduate with a pace-prompting trip at the Spa the following month. He then moved considerably forward once again with his dominating Bourbon victory despite being given plenty to do from the top of the lane to the wire. From a gambler’s standpoint, Rogue Romance might offer significant value should he opt for the Juvenile — most of the heavy money will go to the two logical favorites — and he would most certainly qualify as the race’s prime “sleeper.” However, there will be plenty of opportunities to learn whether this colt will handle dirt before next year’s Triple Crown trail begins, and our best advice is to take the easy route right now and let the experimenting come in due time.

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Older Comments about The Sleeper Six...

Smarty had a kick????? News to most of us
Sleeper, I think Rogue Romance has a very bright future. The son of Smarty Jones has an explosive kick much like his father. This horse has a lot of speed and if he goes in the Juvenile, I'm sure he'll be forwardly placed, and much closer to the pace, than he was in the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland. I applaud McPeek's strategy to try the dirt. The horse is bred for it, and by the way he hits the ground, he should get faster over the dirt.
Last year a bookie friend of my at Doncaster, sent me the TIMEFORM evauations of the field at Anita... Very interesting to see their take on things and told about injuries missed training and subtle things like one horse had been cast in its stall the day before a big one in Europe and accounted for a poor showing.

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