Horses running on artificial surfaces suffer fatal injuries at a
statistically significant lower rate than horses running on dirt
courses, according to epidemiologists who have analyzed data collected
for a project tracking equine injuries.
According to an analysis of 754,932 starts over a two-year period
ending Oct. 31, 2010, horses running on artificial surfaces suffered
fatal breakdowns at a rate of 1.51 per 1,000 starts, compared to a
fatality rate of 2.14 breakdowns per 1,000 starts on dirt. The overall
rate of fatalities over the course of the study was 2.00 breakdowns per
Although the raw fatality rate for artificial surfaces has
consistently been lower than the fatality rate for dirt courses,
epidemiologists examining the data collected previously had said that
the difference had not been statistically significant due to a relative
lack of data. That has changed with the collection of additional data
over the last six months, officials said.
“The addition of 376,000 starts to the database in year two enabled
us to statistically validate certain trends seen in the data,” said Dr.
Tim Parkin, a veterinarian and epidemiologist from the University of
Glasgow who has been retained by the Jockey Club to analyze the data for
a project that has been called the Equine Injury Database.
“Trends will continue to emerge and evolve as additional data becomes
available for study and as more complex statistical analyses are