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Speed in the Oaks or Derby? No Thanks!

What do Broadway’s Alibi, Believe You Can, Amie’s Dini, Hansen, Bodemeister, and Trinniberg all have in common? You guessed it … you will not find any of them on my tickets this weekend.  Oh, that wasn’t your guess? You figured that I was singling out several of the speed horses running in the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks this weekend. Well, that’s kind of the point. Show me a horse that will be contesting the pace in either the Derby or the Oaks, and I’ll show you a horse that I do not expect to be around when the winners are reaching the finish line. Why do I say this with such conviction? Several reasons…
 
In the Kentucky Derby, the entire field will be running a distance farther than they have ever seen before. In the Oaks, only a pair of fillies have ever been the 9 furlong distance, and that of course came at a different track than Churchill Downs. One thing you can count on is there will be many leg-weary young horses coming down the lane.
 
Combine that fact with the intense pressure that the 34 horses will find in the Oaks and Derby respectively, pressure that they’ve never experienced before, and the tired factor will be raised exponentially for many. Not only are they racing against the biggest field they’ve ever seen, but the quality of competition will test every ounce of courage they may or may not possess. Sprinkle in a little unusually warm Louisville weather, and hundreds of thousands of screaming fans, and it’s enough to make me want to loosen my tie.
 
And lastly, and most importantly, both fields are loaded with speed. Not only are there the six that I mentioned, but several others in each race that can be expected to be part of a contested pace. Speed is great when unpressured, but clearly that will not be the case in either the Oaks or the Derby. 
 
All this adds up to what will be remembered as the Great Speed Burnout of 2012. Toss the speed, and join me in playing some horses that will be finishing strong in this year’s Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks.
 
Horses just like Dullahan and Summer Applause

 

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Older Comments about Speed in the Oaks or Derby? No Thanks!...

travel vic, I likeyour posts/opinions. Who is your pick today based on everything including weather?
"What do Broadway’s Alibi, Believe You Can, Amie’s Dini, Hansen, Bodemeister, and Trinniberg all have in common? You guessed it … you will not find any of them on my tickets this weekend." LOL....good call...obviously no Oaks/Derby double cashed tickets for you. This is a perfect example why I love reading articles and comments on these horse racing sites. People, whether experts or novices, have absolutely no clue who will win. They're guessing just like the other 50 million of us.
DUllahan is a poly track colt. TOO FAR OUT OF IT to win today
That was a tough one ... the sealing of the track after the storm seemed to make it really tough to rally into. I am hoping the track plays fair today, and I'm sticking with Dullahan today though with Union Rags and El Padrino as my main three. I believe he can handle the dirt, icyhotboo, and he looked great galloping yesterday. I'll take Romans word for it when he said the work was purely maintenance ... after all, he doesn't need any speed today.
Romans said he can run on anything, icy.
Dullahan ran a nice race last year at CD but reports indicated he was having difficulty with the surface. Any thoughts?
Thx yukichan.
wow I really like my hansen bodemeister exacta box more than ever
And if your stuck in a place with no NBCSC, you can stream it live: http://www.whas11.com/live-stream
The old Versus ... now called NBC Sports Network.
which site is broadcast Kentucky Oaks?please tell me!
I could of mentioned them as well ... or at least the first two ;-)
I agree, but how about Union Rags & Jemima's Pearl or Hard Not To Like?

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