Ticker
  • Endless Chatter wins her third straight in the Summer Colony! Posted 1 day ago
  • Judy the Beauty rolls right on by in the Rancho Bernardo!Posted 2 days ago
  • Main Sequence surges late to win the Sword Dancer! Posted 2 days ago
  • Moulin De Mougin swoops up the rail to win the Mabee! Posted 9 days ago
  • Enterprising rolls from last in the La Jolla! Posted 10 days ago
  • Cassatt much the best in the Monmouth Oaks! Posted 10 days ago
  • Wallyanna upsets the Hall of Fame with a late rush! Posted 11 days ago
  • Tricky Hat wins the John's Call by half a whisker! Posted 13 days ago
  • Wednesday's Del Mar card features a Pick 6 carryover of $195,206.Posted 15 days ago
  • Skyway proves best in the Best Pal! Posted 16 days ago

Rafirox's Pre-Sunland Derby Sweet 16

1. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher)- I know, I know. He only has a maiden win to his credit. Only a non-winner of two lifetime horse. Yet, his third place finish in the Risen Star Stakes quite impressed me. He got caught between horses and fell behind a wall of horses shortly after. Being further back than he probably would of liked, he put a very green rally on the outside in the stretch. He lugged his head, he drifted and got bumped. What impressed me was how much potential he has and how much he got out of the race. He learned to drop further back, he faced a stiff test, and he just got more experience. He's over the talented Verrazano on my list.... He's the real deal. Look out Kentucky! 

 

2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher)- Originally, he was going to be my new number one after his Tampa Bay Derby win. However, I'm not quite sure. His pace parameters at 8.5 furlongs wasn't as good as it was at eight furlongs. He's a front runner, which I don't like in the derby. Only will run four times before the derby. Yet, he's number two based on his pure talent. He hasn't been tested at all. He has speed and he can even sit in second. He's a big, leggy colt and it will be interesting how this pure talent moves ahead.
 
3. Code West (Bob Baffert)- This one I completely over looked after his Risen Star Stakes. First of all, this one has beautiful breeding. My new extra tool, thanks to Lisa111, is dosage. He has 34 dosage points, a 1.34 DI, and a 0.41 CDI. Talk about pedigree, he's no slouch. His pace parameters are very intriguing. He's got a great stalking style. He can travel too! Watch out for this one. He ain't going down without a fight and he has a very promising future.
 
4. Uncaptured (Mark Casse)- This one came off a four month layoff visually impressively. He ran a solid second in the Spiral Stakes. What I really like about this colt is his foundation and his two graded wins over the Churchill track. He has a seven race two year old campaign, and he will have two nine furlong preps for the derby. Talk about foundation and conditioning! This Casse colt is full of upside, and he's been on my list the entire time.
 
5. Departing (Al Stall)- Really, Ed? A Sam Houston listed stakes winner? More craziness. But, I only see upside from this one. Let me introduce you to dark horse #2. This guy last out closed into very slow fractions. His pace parameters were very impressive! 53.96, 54.02 and a 53.99 AP! Then, a 53.94 1FR, a 54.00 2FR, and finally a 54.07 3FR!!! He almost ran upside-down internal fractions! Performance over pedigree. This War Pass colt has all the signs of a ten furlong horse.
 
6. Hear The Ghost (Jerry Hollendorfer)- This colt got set up very nicely in the San Felipe. Two dueling front runners set it up for him and he took advantage. He didn't close as fast as fellow closer Tiz a Minister, but once they matched up he out closed him. This colt has a perfect mix of speed and stamina. He has the looks of a ten furlong horse. Only positive things await the future for this one.
 
7. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr.)- This one's sustained press style is to die for. Beautiful tactical speed. He runs tough and competitive. What's not to like? Only the fact that I'm skeptical how his form at Gulfstream will translate to Churchill. To me, he is borderline for the ten furlong distance, but he sure runs like he wants more. I love this colt, but I have my doubts. I am not questioning his talent, for sure.
 
8. Tiz The Truth (Bob Baffert)- Previously #2 on my list, I was forced to drop him lower. Reasoning behind it? He'll only have three starts before the derby, if he gets in. To get in, he'll need to beat much more seasoned colts. There is no question this one has all the talent in the world though. He has the looks to go far.
 
9. Orb (Shug McGaughy)- Believe it or not, this one has speed to spare. I checked out his pace parameters, and his early speed is surprisingly high. His last race, according to statistics, was not as fast a close as it appeared. I think Johnny V loves him, and I am sure he has upside. He has a good style. Watch out for him, he might wear the roses on the first Saturday in May.
 
10. Shanghai Bobby (Todd Pletcher)- I refuse to keep this horse out of my top ten. He has done nothing wrong. He ran a very nice race in the Holy Bull and he has a solid foundation. He has a sustained press style, that if he can master, will be a huge tool in competing in the Derby. I've had doubts on him since the beginning and his pedigree is screaming at me, but I have to stick to what I believe in. He's a solid colt who fires every time. Thanks to doubters, he might be a huge overlay come post time on the first Saturday in May.
 
11. Flashback (Bob Baffert)- This one had a questionable ride in the San Felipe. He ran a strong second to Hear The Ghost. He, despite being from Tapit, really hasn't shown any distance limitations. His next nine furlong prep will say a lot. He got a great learning experience. Expect him to move ahead after a strong performance in the San Felipe.
 
12. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez)- I have doubts. Yes, he closed like a freight train into pedestrian like fractions in the Gotham. But, I don't like the fact he hasn't ran outside of Aqueduct. I have no doubts of his ability in New York, but Churchill? Very different from New York. I'm also doubting the field he faced in the Gotham. Was his close into a slow pace against quality speed? Or was it a close into slow pace, but he was facing zero quality speed and just outclassed the field? The second option, to me, is more likely. I have my doubts, but this colt has upside.
 
13. Oxbow (Wayne Lukas)- Don't know what else to say but: SOLID. Everything. Solid pedigree, solid performance, solid pace parameters. The whole deal. SOLID. It took him a bit to figure things out, but once he did, his potential is shining through.
 
14. Goldencents (Doug O'Neill)- He couldn't keep the fast pace in the San Felipe. I don't blame him. He only got beat two lengths and got passed by quality late speed. He got a stiff test and he is learning with every race. The drop in ranking is not from disappointment, rather I'm not sure he can get ten furlongs in the Derby, where there will be a hot pace. Good horse, eager to see him improve.
 
15. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen)- This one just ran a solid Spiral Stakes and beat Uncaptured. I have doubts though, many. First of all, he's not a proven horse on dirt. Second, in his last race, he didn't face much quality closing speed, and he will in the Derby, I'll assure you that. I have trouble thinking he can do it. But, I'll put him on my list out of pure respect of his win over Uncaptured.
 
16. Power Broker (Bob Baffert)- He completes my Baffert quartet! He's a solid horse, but I must drop him down due to the lack of conditioning. He'll have one prep, do or die. Out of respect for his juvenile runnings and showing of potential, I'll keep him on the tail end of my list.
 
*NOTE: This might be invalid following the Sunland Derby
 
*NOTE: Tiz a Minister is not on the list because he is not nominated, but he would be if he was nominated.
 
Yes, that's right, no Revolutionary. Bag me all you want, I ain't on his bandwagon. Breaking slow and traffic prone are not positive things in the Derby. I question the field he faced in the Withers. 
 
Other Notables: Java's War, Falling Sky, War Academy, Super Ninety Nine, Dynamic Sky, Noble Tune, Rydilluc, Revolutionary.

By Ed S (a.k.a Rafirox)

 

comments powered by Disqus

Older Comments about Rafirox's Pre-Sunland Derby Sweet 16...

Thank you, Floridaf!
Congrats, Rafi!
He did it!
Rafi, don't sweat it. tcglory is in Top Secret land now. Someone must've hacked into his highly envied username and is dogging you. Just implement "Operation Ignore.
My list, as who made it, wasn't bad... Notice how Hear the Ghost, Tiz the Truth, Shanghai Bobby, and Flashback were TAKEN off the trail? The only ones that TRULY missed were Code West, Departing (still a chance), Uncaptured, and Power Boker... I am eally not in the mood... Please stop it.
lol what i say in a early comment there was 7-9 horses i dont see making the derby???? Boom Another Victory for me
She didn't have any credibility anyway.
tc you shouldn't be mocking...giving Channel Isle a rating of 10....you lost any credibility you had
boooooooooommmmmmmm
In my last top 16 i had orb #1 and imld #3, i think they both proved to be top derby contenders. Although im still not 100% sold on Rev, not sure if he was a victim of a bad trip or a benifactor, he did prove he belongs in the show. I had him at #11, he definately is moving up after his 2nd stakes win!
ohh and your not allowed to jump on revolutionary's bandwagon cause you sat there every week putting him down anx you were wrong all along
wait for it wait for it waaaaiiiittt fooorrr itttt. Boom explodes this list as predicated by me what i say 7-9 horses on list i dont see making derby??? well so far i got 3 right! bye bye shanghai and departing and omg u uad palace malice as number 1? Number 1 rule just cause your sire won at 1 1/4 dosent mean his foals automatically will. And thats the number 1 cardinal rule of 3 year olds more to come in coming weeks
Better hope departing wins!
Is everybody ready for a great day of racing tomorrow? Featuring many on this list?
Yea, War Academy is a decent colt. Only problem is points...
Figured u go w/ WA or Rydilluc. Everyones high on War Academy for his pedigree, trainer, a win stretching out.. I wasn't really impressed, but I think he'll like the Belmont S.
@Paddy. Probably War Academy will get #16, all the horses behind Tiz The Truth will move up one spot.
@Dressage: I know! I remember watching his maiden win (I was at the track for the Whitney and West Virginia Derby on 8/4/12, and he was running) I loved what I saw. I don't have a watch list that early (I make start evaluating performance in January) but I immediately took note of him. The reason I like him is not for what he has accomplished, but what I believe he has the potential too. He's facing some tough colts in the LA Derby (Code West #3, Departing #5, Oxbow #13, Revolutionary) so he's in for a tough task. All I know is this certainly green colt from Curlin has all the appropriate attributes to contest in the derby. If he doesn't mature in time, I won't bet him but he has a bright future.
I can't understand why a lot of people don't like Palace Malice either. I have since his maiden win. With Curlin being his sire, I think it will take longer for him to mature, but I believe he is a serious threat come derby time.

Related Pages

Related Stories

Top Stories